Welcome to Splitsville

Feeling more and more down with every bit of news regarding MLB still locking out the players? Starting to wonder whether a full cancellation of the 2022 season could actually (seriously??) really be on the table? Waking up every night in a cold sweat after yet another nightmare in which you’ve quantum-leaped yourself back to 1994 and your middle school brain just can’t comprehend that there might not be baseball any time soon?

Well, lucky for you, there is only one topic red-hot enough to get your mind off of those no-baseball blues…Splits talk!

Being bad enough against a hand to be moved into a full platoon is obviously the worst-case scenario but there is also a lot of gray area before a full timeshare where fantasy value still gets sucked away by lower spots in the order and erratic playing time. Let’s talk about a few of them.

Below are the hitters inside 400 ADP on NFBC who posted greater than or equal to a .650 OPS and/or a .290 wOBA vs LHP in 2021 (min 50 PA). Also included for context are wOBA and xwOBA vs RHP.

Top-400 ADP vs LHP 2019 – 2021
Player ADP 2021 PA vL 2019 OPS 2020 OPS 2021 OPS 2019 woba 2020 woba 2021 woba 2021 xwoba 2021 x-woba 2021 woba vR 2021 xwob vR
Eloy Jiménez 71 59 .781 .575 .329 .255 .290 .035 .338 .342
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 73 150 .670 .289 .251 -.038 .322 .330
Brandon Lowe 80 188 .674 1.137 .662 .282 .467 .284 .284 .000 .399 .394
Cody Bellinger 102 96 .968 .666 .382 .398 .294 .183 .301 .118 .257 .273
Christian Yelich 103 126 .920 1.069 .612 .383 .445 .273 .298 .025 .343 .352
Myles Straw 112 202 .593 .272 .319 .047 .329 .302
Jesse Winker 116 118 .443 .572 .219 .263 .336 .073 .449 .407
Anthony Rendon 117 79 1.027 .993 .632 .418 .420 .283 .352 .069 .323 .281
Jared Walsh 119 192 .565 .241 .272 .031 .415 .355
Jarred Kelenic 131 143 .490 .222 .278 .056 .300 .331
Akil Baddoo 146 108 .523 .238 .239 .001 .357 .330
Austin Meadows 154 189 .837 .563 .346 .251 .278 .027 .363 .349
Alex Verdugo 162 201 .843 .791 .555 .352 .349 .246 .285 .039 .378 .371
Eddie Rosario 165 120 .766 .536 .651 .321 .238 .281 .300 .019 .330 .327
Ian Happ 188 125 .701 .653 .322 .289 .268 -.021 .340 .332
Michael Conforto 194 146 .701 .870 .582 .304 .378 .278 .337 .059 .341 .356
Marcell Ozuna 202 52 .752 1.309 .604 .310 .527 .263 .332 .069 .291 .351
Eugenio Suárez 212 153 .982 .754 .619 .406 .317 .272 .279 .007 .318 .343
Christian Vázquez 229 160 .886 .784 .555 .365 .335 .242 .266 .024 .312 .280
Gavin Lux 231 98 .533 .247 .262 .015 .323 .344
Adam Duvall 243 141 .894 .605 .373 .263 .317 .054 .345 .335
Sean Murphy 248 142 .629 .277 .301 .024 .324 .354
Abraham Toro 251 122 .632 .290 .286 -.004 .309 .341
Michael Brantley 255 180 .740 .638 .575 .322 .276 .252 .323 .071 .399 .383
Omar Narváez 273 72 .699 .434 .320 .201 .228 .027 .346 .318
Max Kepler 280 129 .880 .378 .509 .367 .179 .232 .293 .061 .337 .367
Cavan Biggio 283 70 .741 .908 .540 .328 .405 .249 .245 -.004 .313 .297
Mike Yastrzemski 284 126 .936 .997 .513 .391 .415 .234 .240 .006 .355 .343
Max Stassi 299 77 1.024 .642 .414 .286 .311 .025 .340 .325
Rafael Ortega 302 59 .421 .222 .218 -.004 .383 .331
Danny Jansen 305 68 .722 .583 .305 .259 .318 .059 .364 .345
Jeff McNeil 322 110 .825 .747 .630 .356 .330 .286 .279 -.007 .306 .327
Tyler Naquin 325 70 .837 .562 .344 .261 .317 .056 .360 .344
Brandon Marsh 327 81 .561 .250 .247 -.003 .317 .360
Hunter Dozier 341 158 .905 .640 .376 .286 .310 .024 .296 .295
Joey Wendle 352 134 .351 .603 .168 .268 .259 -.009 .335 .296
Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 353 89 .664 .286 .278 -.008 .263 .259
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 356 213 .538 .916 .575 .235 .395 .253 .287 .034 .311 .294
Pavin Smith 358 149 .608 .273 .281 .008 .335 .330
Jacob Stallings 359 151 .598 .263 .312 .049 .339 .315
Lorenzo Cain 361 78 .747 .617 .317 .280 .346 .066 .334 .306
Brian Anderson 368 59 .739 .778 .414 .313 .337 .183 .195 .012 .352 .329
Jorge Mateo 375 75 .664 .286 .277 -.009 .294 .293
Nico Hoerner 377 53 .629 .287 .353 .066 .349 .305
Tucker Barnhart 377 59 .376 .670 .180 .288 .225 -.063 .303 .272
Victor Robles 390 110 .740 .817 .560 .323 .363 .269 .303 .034 .276 .281

Look away, my fellow Strawmen, nothing pretty lies ahead. As in, Myles Straw posted a .272 wOBA and .593 OPS over 202 PA in 2021. Cue the “look at these suckers getting duped by Mallex Smith number two” takes because this is not great news for drafters counting on him to keep a full-time job atop Cleveland’s order and the +30 SB that would likely come in such a timeline.

But on the bright side, at least things were more golden in his expected stats, with a .319 xwOBA (+47-points), .706 xOPS (+113-points), and a .280 xBA (.243 AVG vs LHP). And while his .314 BABIP vs LHP may be above average for the rest of the league, I’m banking it will level out more for a left-hander as fast as he is; Straw has a .331 BABIP overall for his career, after a .045 BABIP in just 30 PA vs LHP in 2020, and a .345 BABIP over 73 PA in 2019.

While his spot at the top of Cleveland’s lineup is nowhere close to guaranteed, Straw’s defense is slick enough to stick in it, unlike some other on this split’s hit-list. And if he’s playing most days the stolen base upside he’ll provide is enough that he doesn’t necessarily need to reach 650 PA in order to provide league-swinging production in a quickly decaying category.

Just what I needed; more reasons to avoid Christian Vázquez. But yet here we are, with me piling on the right-handed Vázquez posting a .550 OPS and .242 wOBA (.266 xwOBA) over 160 PA vs LHP in 2021, slashing .219/.250/.305. And while he has had better results prior, a .365 wOBA in 2019 and .335 wOBA in 2020 were only backed by a respective .302 xwOBA and .271 xwOBA. On the other hand, his competition for playing time, Kevin Plawecki, only has a career .246/.309/.364 vs LHP but over the last two seasons is slashing .327/.370/.455, with a .359 wOBA and .825 OPS.

The best thing I can say about Jared Walsh’s performance versus LHP is that it’s unlikely to cost him playing time, barring a new signing, as the Angels bench is currently populated by the likes of Justin Upton, Matt Thaiss (SZN?), and Andrew Velazquez. However, part of Walsh’s value comes from a presumption of one of the best lineup spots in baseball, hitting behind Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, and preceding Anthony Rendon. But is that really going to always be the case considering he’s slashing .196/.225/.379 vs LHP in the big leagues, with a .255 wOBA and .604 OPS? If Jo Adell takes a step forward and Max Stassi stays healthy, Walsh could drop out of his cushy spot in a hurry, and even if he stays put, it’ll be painful to use him in a lefty-heavy week. It’d be one thing if Walsh came with a discount but he has a top-120 ADP over the past month (103 min, 152 max) and is being drafted around multiple first basemen that I like a lot more (Hoskins, Bell, Votto).

Akil Baddoo offers a sneaky power/speed combo that could be good for ~40 HR+SB but while I’m legally mandated to remind you that he’s a former Rule-5 pick, this article’s premise also mandates I bring up that he only slashed .214/.278/.245 over 108 PA vs LHP, with a .238 wOBA and .523 OPS. Given he’s also an average (at best) outfielder, the threat of fewer starts vs LHP certainly exists, with catcher Eric Haase looking to mix in, as well as top prospect Riley Greene lurking in the minors.

However, even if he avoids a straight platoon, some of Baddoo’s value is wrapped up in the expectation that he’ll compile PAs from the leadoff spot he took over last June and never gave back.  But I find him keeping that spot locked down in 2022 to be a difficult assumption to make, barring significant improvement against lefties. And the further away from 600 PA he gets, the harder it will be to earn back his top-150 ADP.

If you thought Cody Bellinger had a bad 2021 overall then what do we call his performance vs LHP? Battlefield Earth? Dark World? The Last Jedi?… Okay, okay, no need to get carried away but Bellinger was totally lost versus LHP, slashing .116/.208/.174, with a .183 wOBA and .383 OPS, losing playing time along the way. We all know his theoretical upside because 2019 (and a top-three fantasy season) wasn’t that long ago. But what started in 2020 was taken to its extreme conclusion in 2021, with Bellinger looking lost at the plate as he continued to drop down – and eventually out of – the batting order.

Even if the Dodgers fail to sign another hitter (a fairly big if, in my opinion), Bellinger’s place in the everyday lineup isn’t a guarantee, let alone what version of his bat we’ll see after two years of decline. But to be fair, opinions could quickly swing once Spring Training actually starts. Not because much credence should be given to spring stats (and not because he’s had an amazing offseason) but just seeing him look more confident and mechanically sound at the plate would go a long way towards believing in a bounceback. But until then I see Bellinger as a lottery ticket whose odds aren’t currently good enough to be worth his top-100 chit.

Brandon Lowe was again a slice of rotten pie vs LHP in 2021 (.198/.261/.401) but was also again prolific enough overall to warrant eating it, slashing .247/.340/.523 overall, with 39 HR, 97 R, and 99 RBI. Besides occasionally being moved out of his leadoff spot, his place on the Rays is rock-solid, making him an easy plug-and-play. Because even managers in daily leagues (with deep benches) might not want to get too cute with sitting Lowe against lefties, considering that 10 of his 39 HR in 2021 and 22 of his 76 career HR have come against them.

The fantasy impact of Lowe’s teammate, Austin Meadows, on the other hand, is on far shakier ground. Considering how solid he was vs LHP in his first two seasons (.280/.327/.534, .359 wOBA, 129 wRC+), it was easy to excuse the atrocious numbers from a shortened 2021 (41 PA: .143/.220/.171, .184 wOBA, 14 wRC+). But things were still dire in 2022, with Meadows slashing .198/.270/.293 over  189 PA, giving him a combined .188/.261/.272 since 2020, with a .239 wOBA and 53 wRC+. What happened?

It’s not the only but one answer is that Meadows has been dominated by four-seam fastball over the past two seasons after having a bit of seemingly BABIP-powered success against them in the two years prior. But those successes have quickly evaporated as shifts against him increased. Here is how Meadows has fared against four-seamers from LHP for his career along with his overall Shift%:

Austin Meadows vs LHP Four-Seam Fastballs
2018 2019 2020 2021
Shift% 29.6 50.9 58.6 75.0
wOBA .440 .368 .132 .225
xwOBA .326 .353 .164 .241
BA .350 .292 .100 .155
xBA .234 .254 .113 .172
BABIP .400 .343 .125 .213

I suppose it’s easier to wave your hands at the above after this past weekend’s news that the MLBPA is amendable to a ban on shifts in the future. But the mechanics of how that will work are yet unknown and won’t be instituted until 2023, at the earliest. Plus, I’m no longer assuming anything about what the CBA will ultimately contain until the day it is actually signed.

This brings us back to Meadows, who, regardless of what is signed, is likely going to face shifts a great majority of the time in 2022. And if recent history is any indication, most PAs vs LHP won’t end well. But as a counterpoint, even with the lefty troubles in 2021, Meadows was still good enough overall to still be a top-60 hitter in 12-team leagues according to the FanGraphs auction calculator and as the #64 hitter on the RazzBall player rater.

It’d be one thing if he still played for the Pirates but it is hard to trust the playing time and batting order of a Tampa Bay Ray who plays poor defense and runs severe deficits versus a particular hand. Perhaps everything stays the same in 2022 and Meadows is again a top-75ish hitter, earning back his current 150 ADP. But he’ll be a pass for me because paying that price requires relying a lot on one of the most analytically driven teams in baseball continuing to give full-time PAs to a player who has shown severe limitations in his overall game.

But honestly, I’m just rooting for the Rays to re-pillage the Pirates and close the circle of life by trading Meadows (and future All-Star RP, Shane Baz) in a package for Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz. I mean, really… Who says no? Pittsburg would not only be getting a perfect platoon partner for Michael Chavis, but Baz would also slot in as elite trade bait for 2025, commanding the type of package that the Pirates need to stay in a perennial state of rebuildment. Win-win.





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CC AFCmember
2 years ago

Sweet, thanks. I actually find these helpful in identifying the reverse platoon splits. I’m extremely skeptical when I see a reverse split and I’ve been pretty successful just assuming the weaker performance against the opposite handed pitcher is just noise.

Also, the pirates say no. Baz and O’Neil are probably of similar value and Reynolds > Meadows.