Week Six FAAB Projections (4/27/19)

It’s just two big popup names this week, Griffin Canning and Carter Kieboom. And some closer darts. The rest are just some players moving up or down a small bit. It’s just not an exciting week for FAAB, but injuries last weekend’s sent the bids into a huge cluster f___. Hopefully not this week.

As usual, I use ownership rates from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw leagues where players can be picked up at any time. The FAAB estimates are based off 15-team mixed NFBC leagues with $1000 FAAB. First, Here are the hitters who were owned in fewer than 50% of leagues and have seen the highest jumps in ownership.

• Carter Kieboom: While Renato Nunez has the highest FAAB projection, Kieboom will likely go higher because he’s highly touted and homered in his first game. Vlad Jr. couldn’t even do that. Last week Cole Tucker, who did get a Sunday boost, had an average bid of $186. Last year in this same bidding period Gleyber Torres averaged for $335. While some money is now off the table, I still expect Kieboom to go for ~$200. I’m not sure if I’d go all in on him. I’m a little worried he’ll get demoted once Trea Turner possibly returns in May.
• Renato Nunez: Fantasy owners can no longer ignore the 25-year-old right-handed hitter’s .289/.343/.515 triple slash line with six homers. None of the values are out of place since his walk (7% BB%), strikeout (23%), and BABIP (.328) rates are not out of place compared to his minor league stats. This will likely be the last week he’ll be available to be added in all but the shallowest of leagues.
• Ryan Cordell: He could turn into what Nunez has become but can be had for nothing this week. Roster him now while his price is a fifth of what it could jump to next week.
• Eric Sogard: I was going to target Sogard as a cheap buy, but I doubt he remains that way after everyone and their grandma saw him hit a home run in Vlad Jr’s debut. It’s still Sogard and I’m not going over 2% to 3%.
• Brian Goodwin, David Fletcher, and Tommy La Stella: They are each a must own in 15-teamers and possible smaller leagues depending on how many injuries a team has occurred.
• Luis Rengifo: The Angels just promoted him, and his bounce was only 2%. He’s a must add in all roto leagues based on his 34 stolen bases (caught 17 times) in 2017 and 41 (16 caught stealings) last year. He thinks he is fast, so he could be a super cheap source of steals until he gets the breaks put on. Maybe owners could sneak him by with a 1% bid but those in need of steals may need to go 4% to 5%.
• Kelvin Gutierrez (0% change): The Royals third base prospect his tearing up AAA (.333/.443/.439) and just got promoted. With Lucas Duda on the DL and Ryan O’Hearn struggling (.169/.302/.352), the 25-year-old Gutierrez could be valuable in leagues where everyone is rostered.

• Ty Buttrey, Robert Stephenson, Emilio Pagan, Hansel Robles, Shawn Kelley, Taylor Rogers, and Sergio Romo: Save speculation leads the movers but not one great option. Someone will hit big with one of these moves. I’d go in with minimal FAAB bids for each arm and hope to end up with one without spending much.
• Griffin Canning: The 22-year-old right-handed rookie will be making his major league debut on Tuesday. He’s been lights out in three AAA starts with a 0.56 ERA and 8.5 K/BB. He probably a must add to see what happens but not necessarily a must start (home vs Toronto).
• Chase Anderson: A must add with his 1.86 starter ERA. While he is not a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher, he will not remain on the waiver wire for his talent to stabilize.
• Danny Duffy: He debuted last night and struggled but went for some symmetry. 5.40 BB/9 = 5.40 ERA. 1.8 K/9 = 1.8 HR/9. Also, his velocity was down over 1 mph from last season. I had him stashed on my Tout Wars IL and he’ll be heading to the waiver wire this week for someone trustworthy.