Week Six FAAB Projections (4/27/19)

It’s just two big popup names this week, Griffin Canning and Carter Kieboom. And some closer darts. The rest are just some players moving up or down a small bit. It’s just not an exciting week for FAAB, but injuries last weekend’s sent the bids into a huge cluster f___. Hopefully not this week.

As usual, I use ownership rates from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw leagues where players can be picked up at any time. The FAAB estimates are based off 15-team mixed NFBC leagues with $1000 FAAB. First, Here are the hitters who were owned in fewer than 50% of leagues and have seen the highest jumps in ownership.

Week Six Hitter FAAB Estimates
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Ty France 3B | SD 0% 5% 5% $27
Eric Sogard SS | TOR 1% 4% 3% $26
Mike Tauchman CF | NYY 2% 14% 12% $37
Danny Santana LF | TEX 2% 11% 9% $32
Ryan Cordell RF | CHW 2% 6% 4% $26
Tommy La Stella 3B | LAA 4% 15% 11% $36
Raimel Tapia CF | COL 4% 9% 5% $27
Jarrod Dyson CF | ARI 4% 7% 3% $26
Dexter Fowler RF | STL 5% 8% 3% $26
Cole Tucker SS | PIT 8% 30% 22% $68
David Fletcher 2B | LAA 8% 13% 5% $28
Eric Thames RF | MIL 10% 15% 5% $29
Renato Nunez 3B | BAL 11% 50% 39% $157
Rowdy Tellez 1B | TOR 13% 19% 6% $31
Brian Goodwin CF | LAA 14% 23% 9% $36
Yordan Alvarez LF | HOU 17% 24% 7% $35
Josh Reddick RF | HOU 18% 27% 9% $39
Christian Vazquez C | BOS 19% 29% 10% $41
Michael Chavis 3B | BOS 20% 32% 12% $46
Carter Kieboom SS | WAS 24% 51% 27% $104
Avisail Garcia RF | TB 29% 45% 16% $65
Mitch Garver C | MIN 34% 52% 18% $78
Dwight Smith LF | BAL 35% 63% 28% $124
Brett Gardner LF | NYY 35% 50% 15% $69
Mike Zunino C | TB 40% 46% 6% $51
Hunter Dozier 1B | KC 41% 67% 26% $122
Alex Verdugo RF | LAD 43% 46% 3% $49
Jose Martinez 1B | STL 46% 59% 13% $76

  • Carter Kieboom: While Renato Nunez has the highest FAAB projection, Kieboom will likely go higher because he’s highly touted and homered in his first game. Vlad Jr. couldn’t even do that. Last week Cole Tucker, who did get a Sunday boost, had an average bid of $186. Last year in this same bidding period Gleyber Torres averaged for $335. While some money is now off the table, I still expect Kieboom to go for ~$200. I’m not sure if I’d go all in on him. I’m a little worried he’ll get demoted once Trea Turner possibly returns in May.
  • Renato Nunez: Fantasy owners can no longer ignore the 25-year-old right-handed hitter’s .289/.343/.515 triple slash line with six homers. None of the values are out of place since his walk (7% BB%), strikeout (23%), and BABIP (.328) rates are not out of place compared to his minor league stats. This will likely be the last week he’ll be available to be added in all but the shallowest of leagues.
  • Ryan Cordell: He could turn into what Nunez has become but can be had for nothing this week. Roster him now while his price is a fifth of what it could jump to next week.
  • Eric Sogard: I was going to target Sogard as a cheap buy, but I doubt he remains that way after everyone and their grandma saw him hit a home run in Vlad Jr’s debut. It’s still Sogard and I’m not going over 2% to 3%.
  • Brian Goodwin, David Fletcher, and Tommy La Stella: They are each a must own in 15-teamers and possible smaller leagues depending on how many injuries a team has occurred.
  • Luis Rengifo: The Angels just promoted him, and his bounce was only 2%. He’s a must add in all roto leagues based on his 34 stolen bases (caught 17 times) in 2017 and 41 (16 caught stealings) last year. He thinks he is fast, so he could be a super cheap source of steals until he gets the breaks put on. Maybe owners could sneak him by with a 1% bid but those in need of steals may need to go 4% to 5%.
  • Kelvin Gutierrez (0% change): The Royals third base prospect his tearing up AAA (.333/.443/.439) and just got promoted. With Lucas Duda on the DL and Ryan O’Hearn struggling (.169/.302/.352), the 25-year-old Gutierrez could be valuable in leagues where everyone is rostered.
Week Six Hitter FAAB Estimates
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Emilio Pagan RP | TB 0% 6% 6% $25
Chris Bassitt SP | OAK 1% 10% 9% $27
Sam Gaviglio SP | TOR 1% 7% 6% $25
Hector Velazquez RP | BOS 1% 5% 4% $24
John Means RP | BAL 1% 4% 3% $24
Hansel Robles RP | LAA 2% 8% 6% $45
Shawn Kelley RP | TEX 3% 11% 8% $47
Andrew Cashner SP | BAL 3% 8% 5% $24
Daniel Norris SP | DET 3% 7% 4% $24
Robert Stephenson SP | CIN 4% 7% 3% $43
Griffin Canning SP | LAA 6% 10% 4% $24
Erik Swanson SP | SEA 11% 27% 16% $34
Danny Duffy SP | KC 11% 15% 4% $25
Chase Anderson SP | MIL 12% 23% 11% $29
Ty Buttrey RP | LAA 16% 26% 10% $52
Spencer Turnbull SP | DET 16% 22% 6% $26
Taylor Rogers RP | MIN 16% 20% 4% $45
Homer Bailey SP | KC 17% 31% 14% $33
Sergio Romo RP | MIA 17% 21% 4% $25
Gio Gonzalez SP | NYY 18% 22% 4% $25
Jerad Eickhoff RP | PHI 19% 36% 17% $37
John Gant SP | STL 19% 26% 7% $27
Hector Neris RP | PHI 24% 45% 21% $85
Tanner Roark SP | CIN 26% 34% 8% $29
Roenis Elias RP | SEA 29% 49% 20% $83
Pablo Lopez SP | MIA 29% 34% 5% $27
Jeff Samardzija SP | SF 35% 44% 9% $32
Vince Velasquez SP | PHI 39% 52% 13% $37
Jordan Lyles RP | PIT 41% 54% 13% $37
Mike Soroka SP | ATL 46% 75% 29% $68
Pedro Strop RP | CHC 46% 49% 3% $30
  • Ty Buttrey, Robert Stephenson, Emilio Pagan, Hansel Robles, Shawn Kelley, Taylor Rogers, and Sergio Romo: Save speculation leads the movers but not one great option. Someone will hit big with one of these moves. I’d go in with minimal FAAB bids for each arm and hope to end up with one without spending much.
  • Griffin Canning: The 22-year-old right-handed rookie will be making his major league debut on Tuesday. He’s been lights out in three AAA starts with a 0.56 ERA and 8.5 K/BB. He probably a must add to see what happens but not necessarily a must start (home vs Toronto).
  • Chase Anderson: A must add with his 1.86 starter ERA. While he is not a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher, he will not remain on the waiver wire for his talent to stabilize.
  • Danny Duffy: He debuted last night and struggled but went for some symmetry. 5.40 BB/9 = 5.40 ERA. 1.8 K/9 = 1.8 HR/9. Also, his velocity was down over 1 mph from last season. I had him stashed on my Tout Wars IL and he’ll be heading to the waiver wire this week for someone trustworthy.
2019 Week Five FAAB Results
Name Avg Bid Count
Cole Tucker $186 38
Jerad Eickhoff $64 38
Mike Tauchman $58 37
Chase Anderson $31 36
Danny Santana $48 36
Michael Chavis $106 35
Erik Swanson $64 32
Shawn Kelley $21 30
Roenis Elias $121 28
Roman Quinn $21 25
Homer Bailey $39 23
Tommy La Stella $28 22
Brian McCann $15 20
Danny Duffy $18 18
Ryan Cordell $27 18
Carlos Gonzalez $25 17
Mike Soroka $220 17
Scott Kingery $23 17
Brian Goodwin $45 14
Eric Thames $36 14
Bryan Reynolds $28 13
Derek Dietrich $26 13
Dexter Fowler $13 13
Howie Kendrick $9 13
Elias Diaz $12 12
Nick Anderson $21 12
Alex Reyes $20 11
Ty Buttrey $40 11
Zach Davies $16 11
Eric Sogard $9 10
J.D. Davis $43 10
Robert Stephenson $17 10
Wilmer Difo $10 10
Wilmer Flores $23 10
Clay Buchholz $22 9
Andrew Heaney $7 8
Billy McKinney $16 8
Brandon Drury $16 8
Chris Bassitt $8 8
David Fletcher $15 8
Jorge Lopez $3 8
Mark Melancon $6 8
Trent Thornton $21 8
Anthony DeSclafani $27 7
Bryse Wilson $15 7
Jung Ho Kang $52 7
Manny Banuelos $7 7
Tony Wolters $11 7
Trevor Hildenberger $20 7
Chris Owings $14 6
Christian Vazquez $26 6
Evan Longoria $39 6
Grayson Greiner $7 6
Hector Velazquez $9 6
Ivan Nova $11 6
Johan Camargo $13 6
Melky Cabrera $14 6
Raimel Tapia $17 6
Scott Barlow $18 6
Taylor Rogers $98 6
Tyson Ross $15 6
Daniel Norris $43 5
Hansel Robles $7 5
Jaime Barria $17 5
Jason Kipnis $44 5
Josh Harrison $24 5
Josh James $16 5
Lou Trivino $7 5
Miguel Rojas $11 5
Reynaldo Lopez $33 5
Ronald Guzman $22 5
Ryan Yarbrough $20 5

 

2018 Week Six FAAB Results
Name Avg Bid Count
Caleb Smith $32 22
Leury Garcia $25 22
Jesus Aguilar $39 22
Daniel Robertson $35 21
Joc Pederson $37 19
Joey Wendle $17 18
Matt Koch $19 18
Alex Verdugo $34 18
Eric Lauer $20 16
Cam Bedrosian $29 16
Chad Pinder $22 16
Alen Hanson $14 15
Marco Gonzales $49 14
Wei-Yin Chen $16 12
Brad Miller $25 12
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. $44 12
Ben Zobrist $38 12
Isiah Kiner-Falefa $18 12
Tyler Austin $53 10
Bartolo Colon $15 10
Jhoulys Chacin $17 10
Darren O’Day $84 9
Matt Duffy $28 9
Pedro Alvarez $26 9
Steve Pearce $19 9
Adam Frazier $13 8
Gleyber Torres $335 8
Kyle Freeland $10 7
Adeiny Hechavarria $4 7
Nick Ahmed $17 7
Carson Fulmer $14 7
Junior Guerra $68 7
Mark Canha $47 7
Jason Hammel $14 7
Brandon Nimmo $22 6
Brandon Crawford $16 6
Kike Hernandez $14 6
Lucas Giolito $53 6
Jarlin Garcia $29 6
Jose Alvarado $13 6
Johan Camargo $15 6
Tyler Flowers $27 5
Derek Dietrich $27 5
Alex Gordon $4 5
Matt Adams $4 5
Jose Urena $11 5
Mitch Garver $3 5
Jarrod Dyson $29 5

We hoped you liked reading Week Six FAAB Projections (4/27/19) by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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feslenraster

Why Cordell?