Week 19 FAAB Projections
There is a ton of value changes this week with some players getting hurt (Braves), called up (Will Smith), or playing full-time (Luis Arraez). Just spend a few minutes looking for some adds. Probably more important, look for some players who should be dropped or benched. It’s not a week to half-ass your FAAB.
The projection guidelines:
- The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
- The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
- The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
- Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
Week 19 Projected Hitter FAAB
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh VanMeter SS | CIN | 1% | 5% | 4% | $12 |
| Mike Tauchman CF | NYY | 1% | 5% | 4% | $12 |
| Austin Romine C | NYY | 1% | 4% | 3% | $11 |
| Yairo Munoz SS | STL | 1% | 4% | 3% | $11 |
| Adam Duvall LF | ATL | 2% | 4% | 2% | $11 |
| Tommy Edman SS | STL | 4% | 6% | 2% | $11 |
| Anthony Santander RF | BAL | 6% | 28% | 22% | $52 |
| Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF | 6% | 13% | 7% | $16 |
| Mark Canha CF | OAK | 7% | 11% | 4% | $13 |
| Matt Wieters C | STL | 7% | 9% | 2% | $12 |
| Will Smith C | LAD | 9% | 43% | 34% | $110 |
| Brandon Crawford SS | SF | 10% | 12% | 2% | $12 |
| Isan Diaz 2B | MIA | 10% | 12% | 2% | $12 |
| Alex Dickerson LF | SF | 12% | 17% | 5% | $15 |
| Luis Arraez 2B | MIN | 12% | 14% | 2% | $13 |
| Manuel Margot CF | SD | 16% | 25% | 9% | $23 |
| Brian McCann C | ATL | 19% | 24% | 5% | $19 |
| Gavin Lux SS | LAD | 19% | 23% | 4% | $17 |
| Albert Pujols 1B | LAA | 20% | 22% | 2% | $16 |
| Nick Ahmed SS | ARI | 23% | 25% | 2% | $18 |
| Gio Urshela 3B | NYY | 24% | 26% | 2% | $18 |
| Eric Sogard SS | TOR | 28% | 32% | 4% | $23 |
| Carson Kelly C | ARI | 32% | 34% | 2% | $24 |
| Enrique Hernandez CF | LAD | 32% | 34% | 2% | $24 |
| Luis Robert CF | CHW | 33% | 35% | 2% | $24 |
| Travis d’Arnaud C | TB | 34% | 63% | 29% | $113 |
| Niko Goodrum 2B | DET | 34% | 37% | 3% | $26 |
| Justin Smoak 1B | TOR | 44% | 46% | 2% | $35 |
| Renato Nunez 3B | BAL | 45% | 59% | 14% | $63 |
| Ryan McMahon 1B | COL | 45% | 51% | 6% | $42 |
| Jorge Alfaro C | MIA | 45% | 47% | 2% | $36 |
| Rougned Odor 2B | TEX | 47% | 54% | 7% | $47 |
- Will Smith: The Dodgers demoted Austin Barnes to the minors and promoted the top-100 prospect Will Smith. The 34% ownership jump is extremely high and usually garners a $100+ price. I wouldn’t pay it for the hype. I’d probably max out in the $30 range
- Travis d’Araund: Another catcher with a $100 price tag. In most deeper leagues, he’s been owned for weeks. For those who waited, they are going to have to pay full price.
- Carson Kelly: Instead of playing up for the above two catchers, pick up Kelly for a quarter of the price. He’s a hitting a respectable .264/.352/.527 with 12 homers.
- Anthony Santander: Last week in the NFBC, he was added in 21 leagues for an average cost of $6. It’ll be more this week. He’s finally hitting the ball hard and in the air and it shows in his .304/.344/.509 triple slash.
- Manual Margot: He’s tied for 15th in the league with 15 stolen bases. For those owners needing stolen bases, he’s a must-add. Another stolen base threat to keep an eye on is Tim Locastro. There are a ton of rumors floating around the Diamondbacks trading off parts. If Jarrod Dyson and David Peralta get traded, Locastro could be let loose to steal a ton.
- Renato Nunez: What the hell took so long. He’s tied for 16th in the league with 25 home runs.
- Luis Arraez: Who doesn’t need a full-time player who’s qualified at several positions and hitting .374/.450/.481?
- Mark Canha: Seventeen homers in under 300 PA. And his .383 OBP makes him a must-add in OBP leagues.
- Josh VanMeter: A dual-threat player hitting .313/.403/.552 who has started and hit fifth for three straight games.
- Tommy Edman: He has been the Cardinals leadoff hitter for a month with four homers and stolen bases. He’s a must-add for some team in all 15-teamers.
- Ryan O’Hearn (bonus): After struggling earlier in the majors, he was demoted, but hit well enough to make the Voit/Muncy all-stars.
This week's Voit/Muncy all-starshttps://t.co/2fBckJLc6m
Connor Joe sighting. He's hitting .302/.433/.538 with 13 HR in AAA this season. pic.twitter.com/Dgj647z3vc
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) July 28, 2019
- Ender Inciarte and Johan Camargo (bonus): The Braves lost Nick Markakis and Dansby Swanson this week and Inciarte and Camargo should see a playing time boost. Grab Inciarte if needing steals and Camargo for everything else.
- Logan Forsythe and Asdrubal Cabrera (bonus): The Rangers lost Joey Gallo to injury and demoted Juan Guzman, so Forsythe and Cabrera are playing full-time but Forsythe is really the only one hitting.
- Jon Jay and Ryan Goins (bonus): I know I’m going deep with these two but they are playing every day and that can be helpful in some leagues.
Week 19 Projected Pitcher FAAB
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Payano SP | TEX | 0% | 3% | 3% | $8 |
| Tarik Skubal SP | DET | 1% | 3% | 2% | $8 |
| Francis Martes RP | HOU | 1% | 2% | 1% | $11 |
| Asher Wojciechowski RP | BAL | 2% | 23% | 21% | $25 |
| Joe Biagini RP | TOR | 2% | 3% | 1% | $11 |
| Ethan Hankins SP | CLE | 2% | 3% | 1% | $8 |
| Nick Anderson RP | MIA | 3% | 8% | 5% | $13 |
| Drew Smyly SP | PHI | 3% | 8% | 5% | $9 |
| Chris Martin RP | TEX | 4% | 8% | 4% | $12 |
| Johnny Cueto SP | SF | 5% | 6% | 1% | $8 |
| Jaime Barria SP | LAA | 6% | 14% | 8% | $11 |
| Giovanny Gallegos RP | STL | 6% | 9% | 3% | $11 |
| Rogelio Armenteros SP | HOU | 6% | 8% | 2% | $8 |
| Sam Dyson RP | SF | 8% | 10% | 2% | $11 |
| Cal Quantrill SP | SD | 9% | 15% | 6% | $10 |
| Andres Munoz RP | SD | 13% | 15% | 2% | $9 |
| Jose Urquidy RP | HOU | 14% | 40% | 26% | $36 |
| Vince Velasquez SP | PHI | 14% | 29% | 15% | $18 |
| Freddy Peralta SP | MIL | 17% | 20% | 3% | $13 |
| Andrew Miller RP | STL | 18% | 22% | 4% | $14 |
| Sean Manaea SP | OAK | 18% | 20% | 2% | $9 |
| Tyler Beede SP | SF | 20% | 35% | 15% | $19 |
| Jason Vargas SP | NYM | 23% | 28% | 5% | $11 |
| Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW | 25% | 58% | 33% | $56 |
| Alex Wood SP | CIN | 29% | 44% | 15% | $21 |
| Danny Duffy SP | KC | 32% | 36% | 4% | $12 |
| Jose Leclerc RP | TEX | 34% | 41% | 7% | $22 |
| Jake Junis SP | KC | 34% | 40% | 6% | $14 |
| Kevin Gausman SP | ATL | 35% | 48% | 13% | $20 |
| Anthony DeSclafani SP | CIN | 35% | 38% | 3% | $12 |
| Ryan Yarbrough RP | TB | 40% | 59% | 19% | $30 |
| Brandon Workman RP | BOS | 40% | 51% | 11% | $31 |
| Mike Leake SP | SEA | 43% | 53% | 10% | $19 |
| Steven Matz SP | NYM | 44% | 46% | 2% | $14 |
| Julio Urias RP | LAD | 46% | 48% | 2% | $15 |
| Zach Plesac SP | CLE | 47% | 54% | 7% | $18 |
| Tanner Roark SP | CIN | 48% | 53% | 5% | $17 |
| Brad Keller RP | KC | 50% | 66% | 16% | $29 |
| Jeff Samardzija SP | SF | 50% | 52% | 2% | $16 |
- Asher Wojciechowski and Jose Urquidy: Both are starters with a K/9 over 10.8, a BB/9 under 2.50, and SIERA’s under 3.75. With the lack of decent starting pitching, both are most owns.
- Reynaldo Lopez: He been lights out in three starts since the All-Star game (1.71 ERA, 10.71 K/9, 1.71 BB/9).
- Tyler Beede: Since throwing his strike-zone filling slider over 10% of the time (four games), he has a 7.6 K/9, 0.7 BB/9, and 2.63 ERA.
- Vince Velasquez: A doubling in ownership? Over shutting down one of the league’s worst offenses? Hard pass for now. I’m going to need to see more than one good start.
- Alex Wood: Check-in on his Sunday start for velocity and control.
- Elieser Hernandez (bonus): He has joined the Marlins rotation after posting a 4.05 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9.
Reliever Rankings (Saves focused)
- Brandon Workman
- Nick Andrson
- Chris Martin
- Jose LeClerc
- Sam Dyson
- Freddy Peralta
- Andres Munoz
- Joe Biagini
- Andrew Miller
- Giovanny Gallegos
And here are last week’s results and the values from last year. Looks like closers dominated the bidding last year.
2019 Week 18 FAAB Results
| Add | Avg Bid | Leagues (38) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Workman | $37 | 9 |
| Kevin Gausman | $21 | 24 |
| Jose Urquidy | $17 | 31 |
| Tyler Beede | $15 | 23 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | $14 | 22 |
| Stephen Piscotty | $14 | 6 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | $13 | 15 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | $13 | 18 |
| Homer Bailey | $12 | 11 |
| Chris Martin | $12 | 10 |
| Alex Young | $11 | 8 |
| Daniel Hudson | $10 | 5 |
| Gio Gonzalez | $10 | 6 |
| Raimel Tapia | $9 | 5 |
| Danny Salazar | $9 | 7 |
| Rogelio Armenteros | $9 | 27 |
| Mark Canha | $8 | 8 |
| Bubba Starling | $8 | 14 |
| JaCoby Jones | $8 | 8 |
| Tim Locastro | $7 | 7 |
| Matt Adams | $7 | 12 |
| Jalen Beeks | $7 | 13 |
| Ryan Borucki | $7 | 11 |
| Tommy Edman | $6 | 24 |
| Tyler Naquin | $6 | 20 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | $6 | 5 |
| Brandon Crawford | $6 | 8 |
| Jurickson Profar | $6 | 6 |
| Ender Inciarte | $6 | 7 |
| Alex Wood | $6 | 7 |
| Cal Quantrill | $6 | 15 |
| Anthony Santander | $6 | 21 |
| Dylan Bundy | $6 | 12 |
| Jeimer Candelario | $6 | 5 |
| Drew Smyly | $6 | 26 |
| Alec Mills | $6 | 11 |
| Jose Peraza | $5 | 6 |
| Andres Munoz | $4 | 17 |
| Tommy Milone | $4 | 5 |
| Shaun Anderson | $4 | 5 |
| Gio Urshela | $4 | 5 |
| Adam Haseley | $4 | 6 |
| Sean Manaea | $4 | 5 |
| Travis Shaw | $4 | 8 |
| Jordan Lyles | $3 | 11 |
| Mike Leake | $3 | 5 |
| Vince Velasquez | $3 | 5 |
| Michael Lorenzen | $3 | 5 |
| J.D. Davis | $3 | 10 |
| Jason Vargas | $3 | 9 |
| Nick Anderson | $3 | 6 |
| Ivan Nova | $3 | 5 |
| Dario Agrazal | $3 | 5 |
| Cheslor Cuthbert | $3 | 9 |
| Pablo Lopez | $2 | 5 |
| Welington Castillo | $2 | 16 |
| Tom Murphy | $2 | 9 |
| John Hicks | $2 | 9 |
| Austin Barnes | $1 | 7 |
| Sam Dyson | $1 | 8 |
2018 Week 19 FAAB Results
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I picked up Sogard this morning to fill a couple of holes next week. Toronto has a great schedule next week. Now, he is a late scratch today. Ugh! I wonder who he is getting traded to.
Tampa Bay. Ughhh