Waiver Wire Report (Week 15)

Good luck finding available talented players this week. Besides Vidal Brujan and just a few players who might not have been picked up last week (Sheets and Megill), there is not much on the wire. If there is a week to spend a minute on each team and have a few cool refreshing beverages, it’s this week. Here are three items to consider when making decisions for the short upcoming week.

  1. The Dodgers are at Colorado after the break so someone like Yonathan Daza (14% rostered) might be worth adding.
  2. The Yankees and Red Sox play an extra game (4 vs 3) and maybe someone like Enrique Hernandez (featured below) might be worth an add.
  3. In the next full week, Kansas City, Milwaukee, and Colorado all have five games.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Jake Fraley: In OBP leagues, he’s elite (7 HR, 7 SB, .241/.411/.454) which is outstanding since he’s only had 141 PA.

Vidal Bruján: Besides Duran, Bruján might garner the most attention of any callup until the season’s end. He’s been great in AAA hitting .259/.344/.471 with 9 HR and 15 SB. The stolen bases are where a roto manager or two might go all with him. The one time he has made it to first, he’s stolen a base.

He does come with some risk. He’s going to have to hit at or better than Manual Margot’s .700 OPS. If not, he’ll head into a part-time major league role or even worse, get demoted. The Rays are playing to win their division and they don’t have time for Bruján to work out his struggles in the majors. For some managers, he’s a risk worth taking. For others, maybe not.

Gavin Sheets: A must-add in all formats to see if he can keep anything close to his current pace (.273/.375/.636 and 3 HR in just 40 PA). Also, he’s started in all ten games since being called up.

Enrique Hernández: He’s led off for 12 straight games and is hitting .244/.328/.450 with 7 HR since coming off the IL in mid-May. While he can be a fill-in for an injured player, he’s more of a bench bat with his positional flexibility.

Garrett Cooper: He’s hitting almost exactly to his career numbers (.286/.377/.477, 9 HR, 1 SB). One issue is that he doesn’t face all righties and has started in only seven of the last 10 games.

Starlin Castro: He’s batting fifth and just providing batting average (.276 AVG, 3 HR, 0 SB, 339 PA). A plug-and-play guy in a daily league or a 15-team league bench bat.

Jake Burger: With Moncada off the IL, I’m just not sure how much Burger (.333/.368/.556, .500 BABIP) will play (one of four since Moncada’s return). Sheets is getting most of the DH starts. Talent doesn’t seem to be holding him back, it’s opportunity.

Jace Peterson: With Peterson hitting (.269/.394/.462, 4 HR, 4 SB), it will be interesting to see how the Brewers’ playing time shakes out once Kolten Wong returns from the IL. I could see Peterson become a part-time player. Just roster him while there is playing time but know it could end any day.

Orlando Arcia: I think I dismissed Arcia too quick last week thinking he older than 26-years-old. Looking over his 2021 profile and career results, nothing has really changed. The only stat that might point to an improvement is a career-high 9% Barrel% that’s pushed his .148 ISO just 26 points over his career average (.122 ISO). On further examination, I was correct to dismiss him.

Ben Gamel: He’s hitting on the strong side of an outfield platoon with 6 HR and a .245 AVG. He’s selling out for flyballs with a career-low 28% GB% and a career-high 18.5 degree LA. The problem is that he’s not hitting the ball much harder and he made the change when MLB decided to deaden the ball. Ignorable.

Catchers

Eric Haase: While he has only caught twice in the last ten games, he’s started in seven of them in left-field and as the DH. He’s the 13th ranked catcher (.250/.296/.559 and 13 HR) with just 162 PA. Continue to roster until the playing time dries up.

Tyler Stephenson: The 15th ranked catcher this year (5 HR, 0 SB, .279 AVG). The only issue keeping him from being higher is that his teammate, Tucker Barnhart, is ranked 16th and stealing at-bats from him.

Jake Rogers: He’s started seven of the last 10 games at catcher for the Tigers. After struggling in 2019 (.481 OPS), he’s been an effective catcher this season (5 HR, 1 SB, .229 AVG). Probably a must roster in all two-catcher leagues.

Zack Collins: With Yasmani Grandral on the IL (knee surgery), Collins’s playing time should increase. While Collins has hit fine (.236/.333/.390, 3 HR), Seby Zavala (.429 OPS) has started two of the last three games. Just track Collins playing time to see if he remains rosterable.

John Hicks: The 31-year-old catcher is back in the league and on a bit of a heater (.368/.368/1.000 and 4 HR). He’s always hit for some power (32 HR in a career 890 PA), his batting average (.238 AVG) has been a drag. He might be a nice dart since he has started two of the last games at DH.

Elias Díaz: Start on at home in Colorado (.247/.309/.447, 5 HR) and then bench or release on the road (.159/.256/.304, 2 HR).

Yan Gomes: He’s an acceptable catcher especially for his batting average (.266 AVG, 8 HR, 0 SB). According to our auction calculator, he ranks as the 11th most valuable catcher so far this season. Update: He’s on the IL with an injured oblique. 

Hitting Prospects

Jarren Duran: He’s a must-add prospect (.279/.369/.581, 15 HR, 10 SB) where possible. Since he was part of the Olympic qualifying team, he wasn’t going to be called up until the games were over in August. The Red Sox came out and said, they want to have him available before then so he’s off the team and ready for his major league debut.

Starting Pitchers

Logan Webb: Add in all formats. Before going on the IL, he had a sub-4.00 ERA with ERA estimators under it. In his first start back, all his pitch velocities were higher than his season average. It’s the last week to add him and it might not even be cheap.

Alex Cobb: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed 1 ER thereby lowering his ERA from 5.09 to 4.23. And his ERA estimators are a run lower. He is the only starter (min 60 IP) with a strikeout rate over 10 K/9 and a groundball rate over 55%.

Triston McKenzie: In his return from the IL, he went 7 IP, 0 R, 9 K, 1 BB. His fastball velocity was up 1.6 mph on his season average. For the chance he gets back to his 2020 results (0.90 WHIP, 3.24 ERA), he needs to be added in all leagues.

Kolby Allard: The 23-year-old, just continues to be an effective starter (3.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.1 K/9). This season’s biggest adjustment is that he’s just not walking everyone (2.0 BB/9 in 2021, 3.5 BB/9 for his career).

Tylor Megill: There’s some good (11.9 K/9, 52% GB%) and some bad (3.8 BB/9). His .233 BABIP will regress higher inflating his 1.12 WHIP and 3.77 ERA. He needs to be rostered to see where his talent eventually stabilizes.

Merrill Kelly 켈리: Since a disastrous April (1.44 WHIP and 6.33 ERA), he has a 3.99 ERA (3.77 xFIP), 8.5 K/9, 1.21 WHIP, and a 48% GB%. One of the biggest changes is throwing his cutter (10% SwStr%) 10% points more and his fastball (6% SwStr%) less.

Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현: I know he doesn’t accumulate a ton of strikeouts (7.1 K/9), but I’m surprised he’s so lowly rostered since starters with a sub-3.50 ERA are usually snatched up. He needs to start getting his walks (3.3 BB/9) down since he doesn’t strike out many batters.

Drew Smyly: He’s a fine streaming option, not someone I look to hold in most leagues. While he’s posted a sub-3.00 ERA since June 1st, his monthly xFIP has stayed the same: 5.45 to 4.54 to 4.96 to 4.51. His 0.7 HR/9 from 2020 didn’t last and his 1.8 HR/9 is closer to his career home run rate (1.5 HR/9).

Kyle Freeland: He’s performed better in his last four starts (1.64 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.09 WHIP) than in his first five (9.58 ER, 5.2 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, and 2.27 WHIP). Besides throwing more strikes, he lowered the usage on his now bad changeup (7% SwStr%) from 26% to 15% and is throwing his cutter (12% SwStr%) and slider (12% SwStr%) more. He’s definitely streamable on the road.

Wily Peralta: I guess Peralta is a thing again especially with a 2.14 ERA. There will be some regression as his .184 BABIP goes up. Right now, he has a nice floor with a 60% GB% and a 2.1 BB/9. Hitters are going to have to string together a few singles to get to him. He might even have a little strikeout upside if he increases his 19% splitter (18% SwStr%) usage. Surprisingly streamable.

Martín Pérez: He was a streaming option who has been able to post a sub-4.00 ERA despite all his ERA estimators in the mid-4.00’s. That ride might be over. On June 15th MLB issued their increased enforcement on the sticky stuff. Before the ban, Perez had a 7.9 K/9 and since it was in effect, it’s down to 5.1 K/9 with no change in pitch mix, but some velocity loss. He might need to be evaluated as a different pitcher going forward.

David Price: I have no clue on how to value him. He’s supposed to be a starter or long reliever for the Dodgers as they deal with injuries. On the surface, his 3.23 ERA is fine but it comes with a 1.66 WHIP along with never throwing over 3 IP. Also, he has only faced batters a second time 11 times this year. I can only recommend rostering and waiting. There is no way to start him until some talent baseline is set.

Eric Lauer: His 3.8 BB/9 is an issue, but he’s worked around it with a sub-4.00 ERA while his estimators are over 4.00. Pre-sticky stuff he had a 16% K%-BB% with a 92.6 mph fastball. Since the memo, his fastball velocity is down to 91.9 mph and K%-BB% to 7%. I’d stay away until he rights the ship.

Ryan Weathers: There is nothing positive to build off to make him a rosterable pitcher. In the first two months of the season, he had a 1.31 ERA (4.35 xFIP) averaging just over 3 IP per appearance. In June and July when he had a 5.64 ERA, he was over 5 IP per start. With just two pitches (fastball-slider), he just can’t navigate a lineup a second or third time (1st TTO: 2.33 ERA, 2nd: 3.93 ERA, 3rd: 6.75 ERA).

José Suarez: I don’t know how to value him. He’s a middle reliever like Price and Weathers who is being forced into a starting role. While he throws a below-average curve, he’s mainly fastball-change and has struggled the second time through the order (5.89 xFIP when starting, 5.52 xFIP when relieving). He has no fantasy value as a middle reliever and there is no way to know how the transition to being a starter will go.

Jordan Lyles: His monthly ERA has gone from 6.75 to 5.06 to 3.81 to 3.00. Over those same months, his xFIP has gone from 5.40 to 3.99 to 5.56 to 4.88 meaning he hasn’t change much and transitioned from being unlucky to lucky. Right now his ERA and ERA estimators are all within 0.22 points just under 5.00 and that’s not a rosterable pitcher. Ignore.

Nestor Cortes: The 26-year-old has been decent (1.13 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 0.75 WHIP, 4.63 xFIP) in two short starts this season. Again, like several guys on this list, it’s tough to know how the transition to starting will go. Will he keep the velocity up? Can he handle a lineup a second or third time?

Matt Moore: Why in the hell is Moore being added? Let me count the reasons … he had a 0.00 ERA in June (5 IP). He faced 19 batters in his last two starts. That’s it.

Relievers – Saves-based rankings.

Scott Barlow: Good reliever who is most likely the closer.

Ranger Suárez: Good long reliever who is likely now the closer.

Heath Hembree: Decent reliever who looks to be the closer.

Joakim Soria: OK reliever who is most likely the closer.

Chad Green: Great reliever who is temporarily the closer.

Anthony Bender: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Paul Sewald: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Adam Ottavino: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Collin McHugh: Good middle reliever with no chance of being the closer.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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dl80
2 years ago

Who plays RF or CF for Atlanta now? Any chance Inciarte plays more?

Enlightening Roundmember
2 years ago
Reply to  dl80

Stay on Roster Resource, Jason does a great job