Waiver Wire Report (3/22/23)
I don’t have a good feel on who will or won’t be available on waiver wires this weekend. I normally look at players who are rostered in 40% or fewer CBS leagues, but I bumped up the number to ~50%. I gave Yahoo a look and the only players moving a lot are some of the relievers featured below. For that reason, I will take requests for players in the comments to place them in the above list and add them to the rankings Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 50% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
The names with an * were requests from the crowd.
Batters
* Elvis Andrus: He will be soon dual-position qualified while leading off.
Ha-Seong Kim 김하성: Projected for around 15 SB and 15 HR in 600 PA. Nice balance.
Garrett Mitchell: If getting full-time at-bats, he could steal 20 to 30 bases and hit a dozen home runs. Projections for his batting average are all over the place (.227 to .250). Also, projections have him for a sub-.700 OPS so there is a chance he struggles and is demoted.
Wil Myers: The 32-year-old is dual-qualified and could provide a balance of power, speed, and average.
Seth Brown: Steady all-around contributor who is qualified at the infield and outfield. Could end up in a platoon.
Jurickson Profar: Profar is so tough to value. In over 650 PA last season, he had 15 HR and 5 SB. He’ll see a batting average boost playing in Colorado, but might not be startable on the road.
Mark Canha: Steady 15 HR, 5 SB, and .250 AVG guy with a low ceiling and high floor.
Avisaíl García: The hope is that he rebounds close to his 2021 stats (29 HR, 8 SB, 262 AVG). The key will be for his strikeout rate to drop (24% in ’21, 29% in ’22).
Eddie Rosario: It seems like he’ll get everyday at-bats, but they could dry up if he struggles. If he were to get 600 PA, he is projected for 20 HR and 10 SB with a .240 AVG.
Isaac Paredes: Qualified at three positions (1B, 2B, 3B) and can hit for power (20 HR in 381 PA and 38 HardHit% in 2022). He’s not going to steal any bases and be a sink in AVG (.209 AVG in 574 career PA).
Jorge Soler: 40 HR power and nothing else.
Adam Duvall: 35 HR power and nothing else.
Oscar Colas: Projected to be the starting right-fielder for the White Sox. His best trait is power but he could struggle with batting average.
* TJ Friedl: I was higher on him just a week ago, but since Will Benson has heated up (.780 OPS, 6 SB), I wonder if Benson will steal some playing time.
Esteury Ruiz: I’m not a fan of rostering bad baseball players and Ruiz hasn’t shown many signs of being good (.452 OPS last season). Even counting seven tracked batted balls from this spring, he hasn’t hit a ball over 100.2 mph (Dee Gordon/David Fletcher zone). I do understand he could go off with the stolen bases if given the opportunity but will be a drag in all other categories.
Jon Berti: A career .688 hitter who could carry a team in stolen bases … if starting.
* Mike Moustakas: He would be going higher if I was sure he wouldn’t get platooned against lefties.
* Brett Baty: While he’s having a hot spring (.914 OPS), he’s not showing much power (.108 ISO). Projections have a wide range of outcomes (.661 OPS to .755 OPS). A combination of power and swing-and-miss.
Jake Fraley: I’m probably the lowest analyst on Fraley. He can’t be started against lefties (.476 OPS) but does provide some late power and speed when he faces a righty.
David Peralta: Peralta is a clone of Fraley but with no stolen bases but on a better team.
Luis Rengifo: He is a decent bench bat who could quickly have three qualified positions (2B, SS, and 3B) with a decent floor but limited upside. If rostered, monitor his playing time to start the season.
Oswaldo Cabrera: I’m worried that his talent (projected for a sub-.700 OPS) will not be able to overcome spotty playing time.
* Trevor Larnach: While he could get some at-bats with several injuries on the team, he’ll struggle with AVG (34% K% in the majors) and provide no steals.
David Hensley: He could see the bulk of the time at second base (i.e. Altuve replacement) with a suspect profile. The nearly 27-year-old isn’t likely to break out so he’s a deep-league filler.
* Elehuris Montero: Unrosterable because he doesn’t have a full-time role.
Miguel Rojas: If a fantasy team has rostered Miguel Rojas, they have failed somewhere along the way.
* Michael Taylor: Even if Taylor was getting full-time at-bats he’d still not be rosterable.
Catchers
Blake Sabol: The Giants Rule-5 pick will be outfield qualified in most leagues but might end up as the nice catcher option. Have a backup option as his playing time becomes clear.
Elias Díaz: A streaming catcher when the Rockies are on at home.
* Cooper Hummel: Backup catcher who could get some part-time at-bats in the outfield. I’m not sure it matters for the 28-year-old who is projected to hit a .668 OPS. His .210 projected AVG is a huge drain in Roto leagues.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Colas CF CHW | 47% | 53% | 6% |
| Eddie Rosario LF ATL | 44% | 55% | 11% |
| Garrett Mitchell CF MIL | 41% | 44% | 3% |
| Wil Myers RF CIN | 40% | 43% | 3% |
| Mark Canha LF NYM | 40% | 42% | 2% |
| Jon Berti 2B MIA | 35% | 37% | 2% |
| Esteury Ruiz LF OAK | 35% | 38% | 3% |
| Jon Berti 2B MIA | 35% | 37% | 2% |
| Seth Brown 1B OAK | 34% | 38% | 4% |
| Jorge Soler LF MIA | 34% | 36% | 2% |
| Avisail Garcia RF MIA | 32% | 35% | 3% |
| Isaac Paredes 3B TB | 31% | 38% | 7% |
| Luis Rengifo 2B LAA | 30% | 34% | 4% |
| Ha-seong Kim SS SD | 27% | 31% | 4% |
| David Peralta LF LAD | 27% | 35% | 8% |
| Jake Fraley LF CIN | 27% | 35% | 8% |
| Elias Diaz C COL | 26% | 32% | 6% |
| Oswaldo Cabrera RF NYY | 26% | 28% | 2% |
| Miguel Rojas SS LAD | 24% | 29% | 5% |
| Adam Duvall CF BOS | 16% | 19% | 3% |
| Jurickson Profar LF SD | 14% | 19% | 5% |
| David Hensley DH HOU | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Blake Sabol | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Starters
Eduardo Rodriguez: Rodriguez’s rotation spot is safe and from 2017 to 2021, his strikeout rate was over 9.4 K/9 in each season.
Hayden Wesneski: Roster for the upside. I’d not be surprised one bit if he ends up being the best starter on the Cubs. He has the total package of missing bats, throwing strikes, and generating ground balls.
Clarke Schmidt: When he’s in the Yankees rotation, he needs to be started and rostered in all formats for the Wins and Strikeouts. The big worry with him is the walks (4.2 BB/9 in 70 MLB innings).
Steven Matz: When healthy, Matz needs to be rostered and starting.
Ross Stripling: Safe, boring pick on an OK team.
Mitch Keller: He’s working in a few more pitches with a tick more velocity. Roster to see where his talent stabilizes.
* Graham Ashcraft: He has been dominant in 17 Spring Training innings with 25 K and just 2 BB in 17 IP. And gets the Pirates the first weekend.
Matthew Boyd: I’m worried about his workload coming off Tommy John surgery and how many home runs he’ll allow with the home fences moving in (career 1.6 HR/9). His fastball velocity is back to previous levels.
Nick Martinez: In the Padres rotation right now. Last year he got decent strikeouts while starting (8.1 K/9) but struggled with walks (4.6 BB/9).
Roansy Contreras: While he strikes out a decent number of guys (8.2 K/9), he walks too many (3.7 BB/9) while giving up a ton of flyballs (36% GB%). He might get a limited number of Wins with the Pirates.
Justin Steele: While emphasizing his slider last season, he barely became a serviceable starter. Worth taking a chance on but cut if struggling.
Michael Lorenzen: There is some pitch mix out there that should work for Lorenzen with a focus on this slider (24% SwStr% in Spring Training). Right now, he’s dealing with a groin injury so he should be free in most leagues.
Garrett Whitlock: He’s dealing with a hip issue and I’d rather start the season with all the pitchers above him to see how they perform than wait on Whitlock.
Spencer Turnbull: He has his fastball (94 mph, 9% SwStr%) and slider (18% SwStr%) working this spring but not much else as he returns from Tommy John Surgery. I’m holding off adding him until I see more.
Kyle Bradish: His slider (16% SwStr% in ’22, 20% in Spring Training) is doing all the work with no other pitch taking a step forward. I might become interested if he starts throwing the slider over 40% of the time.
Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd: I wrote both up last week with both battling for the last spot in Atlanta’s rotation. The “winner” should have a spot in the rotation and that arm I’d move ahead of Conteras with the other to the bottom.
Corey Kluber and Michael Wacha: Boring but streamable arms who have no upside and a ton of downside.
Kenta Maeda: I’m out as he comes back from elbow surgery. His fastball is averaging under 90 mph and he’s walking everyone (6.5 BB/9). There are just too many other arms to take a chance on.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Stripling SP SF | 39% | 44% | 5% |
| Garrett Whitlock RP BOS | 39% | 43% | 4% |
| Michael Wacha SP SD | 38% | 49% | 11% |
| Steven Matz SP STL | 38% | 47% | 9% |
| Spencer Turnbull SP DET | 37% | 54% | 17% |
| Justin Steele SP CHC | 37% | 41% | 4% |
| Corey Kluber SP BOS | 36% | 48% | 12% |
| Kenta Maeda SP MIN | 36% | 46% | 10% |
| Roansy Contreras SP PIT | 35% | 37% | 2% |
| Matthew Boyd RP DET | 34% | 51% | 17% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez SP DET | 32% | 34% | 2% |
| Hayden Wesneski SP CHC | 28% | 37% | 9% |
| Michael Lorenzen SP DET | 26% | 34% | 8% |
| Clarke Schmidt RP NYY | 22% | 31% | 9% |
| Nick Martinez RP SD | 21% | 27% | 6% |
| Nick Martinez RP SD | 21% | 27% | 6% |
| Kyle Bradish SP BAL | 20% | 24% | 4% |
| Mitch Keller SP PIT | 20% | 23% | 3% |
| Jared Shuster SP ATL | 11% | 25% | 14% |
| Dylan Dodd P ATL | 1% | 10% | 9% |
Relievers (Saves-based ranks)
José Leclerc: Decent reliever who is most likely the closer.
David Robertson: Decent reliever who is most likely the closer.
Evan Phillips: Great reliever who will get some Saves.
Michael Fulmer: Decent reliever who could end up the closer.
Alex Lange: OK reliever who could end up the closer.
Dylan Floro: Below-average reliever who could be the closer.
Brusdar Graterol: Good reliever who will get some Saves.
Giovanny Gallegos: Good reliever who will get some Saves.
Carlos Estévez: Average reliever who could be the closer but is struggling this Spring Training.
Seranthony Domínguez: Decent reliever who should get some Saves.
Kendall Graveman: Below-average reliever who could be the closer.
Adam Ottavino: Decent reliever who could end up the closer.
Scott McGough: OK reliever who is one of several guys who could be the closer or share the closer role.
Daniel Hudson: Injured reliever who might eventually get a few Saves.
Michael King: Good reliever who might be next in line Saves.
Will Smith: Decent reliever who is next in line for Saves.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Leclerc RP TEX | 44% | 55% | 11% |
| Evan Phillips RP LAD | 42% | 45% | 3% |
| Daniel Hudson RP LAD | 39% | 51% | 12% |
| Kendall Graveman RP CHW | 38% | 46% | 8% |
| Alex Lange RP DET | 35% | 44% | 9% |
| Carlos Estevez RP LAA | 35% | 43% | 8% |
| Dylan Floro RP MIA | 35% | 39% | 4% |
| Giovanny Gallegos RP STL | 34% | 37% | 3% |
| Seranthony Dominguez RP PHI | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Will Smith RP TEX | 30% | 42% | 12% |
| Brusdar Graterol RP LAD | 19% | 23% | 4% |
| Michael King RP NYY | 18% | 21% | 3% |
| David Robertson RP NYM | 13% | 69% | 56% |
| Adam Ottavino RP NYM | 11% | 35% | 24% |
| Michael Fulmer RP CHC | 6% | 14% | 8% |
| Scott McGough RP ARI | 3% | 10% | 7% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Excellent! Thank you, sir
Jon Berti is a career .688 hitter? (Otherwise, good stuff!)
I thought it was pretty obvious he meant OPS since he had referred to it multiple times before he got to Berti.
I thought so too… but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t do a double take on that lol.
Thoughts on Graham Ashcraft?
Added
Thoughts on Ashcraft?
added
Did you mean to stream Diaz at Home?
fixed
Trevor Larnach. Kiriloff starting the year on the IL, so Larnach should DH often. Not sure the ownership of Nick Gordon. Jorge Polanco also starting the year on the IL.
Another Twins’ player would be Micheal Taylor, talk about Buxton getting allot of DH ABs early and Taylor playing CF.
Larnach added
Cooper Hummel. Should make opening day roster. Not sure the playing time
added
Can you rank TJ Friedl?
added
which is better, “decent” or “OK” or “average”? I need the hierachy rubric rosetta. Also a cursory look at Gravemen (xERA, xFIP, for instance, for last couple of years) put him right in there with the other establlished guys who you have graded higher (Fulmer, David Roberston, etc)
I think it goes:
Great > Good > Average > Decent > OK > Below Average
But that’s squishy. I want 20-80 scouting-type grades just to be nerdy
I to found the ranking of Graveman a bit more pessimistic than I believe he deserves.
Is there a good reason nobody has mention Franmil Reyes anywhere? I know St is ST, but ton of power
And Thanks Jeff!
very useful, thank you!
Ruiz slander will not stand!
I think he has the inside track to the starting CF job, and with the upside of a league winning player in Roto settings (not points leagues). We’ll see if he can hit enough, obviously, but his defense will give him some leash (Pache is main competition for playing time).
My thoughts as well. Projections suggest he can be a league average hitter, allowing that speed to win leagues at the price point. Exactly the type I’m looking to add early. If he flips it is not like you gave up much.
Yeah, I think it’s incredibly misleading to highlight his OPS in his first 17 mlb games while ignoring his .974 OPS in 114 games across Double-A and Triple-A.
The more typical argument to temper expectations is around EV and hard contact rates, which should be taken seriously. This OPS one from an incredibly SSS is not particularly serious.
Is the low EV and hard hit rates just based on the tiny major league sample? Or does that data extend into his. Minor league record. If not, It looks like he hits enough minor league homers to be in a better category than this article sugggests.
Tanner Houck?
Andrus is really expected to leadoff?
He’s been leading off while Tim Anderson played in the WBC. I can’t imagine he will be displaying TA in the leadoff spot once TA is back in the White Sox lineup.
There are strong indications that Elehuris Montero is closing in on the starting 3B role. Nolan Jones has been sent to minor league camp and his only competition is Moustakas, so his note here may not age well.
His glove is still a question, but he’s hitting .314 through 19 games with four homers, two doubles and a reasonable 5:11 BB:K. If you don’t trust spring stats, he’s putting the ball in the air a lot.
Curious where you put Olivares on here, thanks
Curious to hear your opinion on Jared Walsh
Can’t help but feel a touch offended on the Miguel Rojas write up.
But also have to acknowledge that I have misled my dynasty team for the last few years to end up in this exact position.
He’s actually my backup, but IKF as a starter is probably equally as terrible.
These waiver wire reports seem to be written for awfully shallow leagues. Zimmerman loves to put nasty comments about guys who are universally rostered in 12 team AL and NL only leagues by necessity. Makes the waiver wire report tough to use if you play in something deeper than a 15 team mixed.
Again, Jeff, you focus on players who are available in 10 and 12 team leagues, where managers barely improve the roster by drafting in-person rather than auto-drafting. Please take a look at players who may be available in VERY deep leagues, like my 20 and 30 team auction leagues with 30-player rosters and 5 players from the minors for each.
Finding a player who gets 10 AB’s per week is a challenge, so telling me to pass on Kenta Maeda – a starting pitcher with a long history of success – is absurd in those formats.