Tipping Pitches: How Good is Chase Anderson?

Chase Anderson has been an interesting arm through two months. He posted a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five April starts with 20% K and 8% BB rates before sputtering to open May. In his first four starts of the month, he went more than five innings just once and it was only 5.3 IP at the Padres. The opposition ran him up to a 7.71 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in 18.7 IP with 18% K and 11% BB rates. He has bounced back from that lull with two major gems, including a long no-hit bid against the Diamondbacks on May 27th (14 scoreless IP, 18 K, 4 H, and 4 BB in the two starts).

Add it all up and he’s got a 3.30 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 23% K rate, and 0.7 HR9 – all career-bests – in 62.7 innings of work. What’s going on with Anderson and should we buy into him as a reliable arm? Here is what I found:

• He is running a career-best 92.9 mph on his fastball and actually showing increased velo on all of his pitches
• Off the fastball, there have been fewer homers overall and a 164-point OPS improvement against righties.
• The cutter we started to see last year has been incorporated a lot more this year going from 6% to 13% usage
• His first-pitch strike and O-Swing rates are both up from last year, but on par with his 2014-15 levels

There definitely isn’t a magic bullet fueling his success. His fastball allowed homers at a 4% clip last year in 388 PA, but this year it’s down to 1% in 138 so far. However, his 7% HR/FB rate is essentially half of what it’s been in previous seasons (14%, 11%, and 15% in 2014-16) with literally no change to his batted ball profile from 2016 (42% FB, 37% GB, 22% LD this year; 41%, 36%, 23% last year).

Anderson is elevating the fastball more and while it’s not yielding amazing results, it hasn’t allowed a homer. He allowed a 1.214 OPS and 6 HR off high heaters to righties in 77 PA last year. He has allowed a .940 OPS in 42 PA so far this year, but 0 homers. The opposition at large has had trouble elevating high pitches off Anderson. Last year, righties and lefties had a 40% flyball rate off all pitches in the upper half; this year it’s at just 30%.

The fastball and cutter have spurred the improved first-pitch strike from 58% to 62% while the fastball and curveball have boosted the chase rate (O-Swing%), but as I mentioned earlier, these rates are just getting back to previously established highs.

• First-pitch strike rates since 2014: 63%, 62%, 58%, and 62%
• O-Swing rate since 2014: 31%, 29%, 25%, and 29%

Even with the improved velocity, less might be more with the fastball. During the four-start dip at the beginning of May, he was more fastball reliant at 55% usage compared to 52% in April and just 45% in these last two gems. Obviously, it’s not as simple as just using the fastball less.

The fastball has to be working early in counts to get ahead so Anderson can then move to the change, cutter, and curve to put guys away. I also think using it less might help him maintain the velocity deeper into the game as these last two starts have been two of his three best in average fastball velocity, but pitchers generally add velocity as the season goes on (into August) anyway so it could be normal progression.

Overall, it looks like Anderson is riding a tiny HR/FB rate to his ERA success while virtually everything else is the same, but that’s why I dove into the gamelog. Remember earlier when I mentioned how his batted ball profile is virtually the same as last year? That is true, but it’s those four ugly outings in May standing out.

• 40% GB, 39% FB, 21% LD, 13% infield FB in April
• 27% GB, 46% FB, 27% LD, 3% IFFB in first four May starts
• 48% GB, 41% FB, 11% LD, 18% IFFB in last two starts

If you need to cut your homer rate, but you’re a flyball pitcher then infield flyballs become a key to your success. All that said, I acknowledge that chopping up an 11-start run into three sections is dangerous, but I’m really trying to figure out if we’re seeing gains or just a solid backend arm having seven of his best starts within his first 11.

The added velo alone is huge and certainly keeps me from calling this a stone cold fluke, but I wonder if maybe he is transitioning from a mid-4.00s arm to a high-3.00s, low-4.00s type (in other words, from a 5 to a 4), which wouldn’t be a huge change, but plays up in the current pitching environment. The improved strikeout rate is nice and having four pitches to rely on is never bad, but I think a lot of his success – or specifically, his ability to stay below 4.00 ERA – will hinge on maintaining infield flyballs if he’s going to continue to be a sub-1.0 GB/FB guy.

I’m at least streaming him in all formats. Despite being a flyball guy in two home run parks (Arizona and now Milwaukee), he’s been nearly a full run better at home over his career (3.72 to 4.55) and well over a run since the start of last year (3.33 to 4.75). He’s not even the best breakthrough in Milwaukee with what Jimmy Nelson is doing (more on that in either an article or pod later this week).

I’d actually tab him as the third-best fantasy asset in their rotation behind Nelson and Junior Guerra, but that speaks more to Milwaukee having a sneaky-decent rotation than anything against Anderson. He has a great setup tonight at home against the Giants, the league’s worst offense against righties by wRC+, ISO, and HR. The schedule has him in Arizona, and then home to San Diego and Pittsburgh after that. While the trip to Arizona could be tough, I’d hold onto Anderson at least through the Pittsburgh start.