Third Baseman ADP Market Report: 3/2/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Eugenio Suárez (+9.26)- The market is finally starting to catch on that Suarez is being undervalued. In a down season, he hit 15 home runs and knocked in 38. Yes, the average sucked, but he had an extremely low BABIP and he still has an elite barrel percentage. Maybe he doesn’t bounce all the way back, but 35+ homers and good runs and RBIs are guaranteed. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Cavan Biggio (-7.33)- See the last piece in this series on second basemen.

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Andrés Giménez (+14.51)-  Gimenez continues to rise in spite of rumors that he may not break camp with the team. This ADP doesn’t even account for the bomb he hit in yesterday’s game. He has speed and enough power to play. I tend to not believe that he will be sent down as I do think Cleveland believes they can compete in the division. I am part of the crowd moving Giménez up. 

Jean Segura (+20.25)- See the last piece in this series on second basemen.

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Ke’’Bryan Hayes (-14.79)- Hayes has been one of the hottest players since the beginning of draft season until the last month. Now there has been some push back on his price among fantasy analysts. He was fantastic in his short sample with an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph and a 55.4% hard hit percentage, but it was only a sample of 65 batted balls. That being said, I buy his hit tool and his speed. I think he is a guy who can hit 15-20 home runs with 15-20 stolen bases and a .275-ish batting average with upside for more. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Austin Riley (+16.54)- Now that the Braves appear to be entering the season with Riley as their full time third baseman, Riley is beginning to rise up the ADP. I think he is what he is at this point, which is a guy with pop and a poor batting average. That being said, there is a place for that, but it’s likely not on my teams. 

Justin Turner (+13.29)- Turner’s rise is directly related to his finally resigning in Los Angeles. That being said, he is still underrated. He is projected to hit third in one of the best lineups in baseball and one of the few guys going this late that provides average without being empty in the power department. If he stays near this ADP, I will be all over him. 

Eduardo Escobar (+18.29)- Escobar is continuing to rise as the fantasy community begins to realize that while he is definitely not the guy he was in 2019, he is better than he was in 2020. He should bounce back to being a 20-25 homer guy with a decent batting average that is an effective accumulator in the middle of the Diamondbacks lineup. 

Ryan McMahon (+25.99)- See the recent piece in this series on first basemen. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Brian Anderson (-17.58)- Anderson continues to drop in the ADP for no real reason. Last time I wrote him up for this series, I think I was a bit unfair to him. While he is not a special player, he is going to play everyday in the middle of an underrated lineup and that alone means he can be a pretty underrated accumulator. It is a bummer he lost OF eligibility, but he has a pretty high floor in spite of the low ceiling. 

David Fletcher (-15.74)- I don’t know why Fletcher is dropping. He is projected to lead off for the Angels with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon hitting behind him. He is still eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS while he doesn’t have much power or speed, he is a good bet for a very good average and a ton of runs. 

Willi Castro (-15.23)- Castro continues to drop in part due to playing time concerns after the Tigers signing Jonathan Schoop, Nomar Mazara, and Renato Nunez. He is penciled in at the main shortstop, but it would not be surprising to see him share time now that Niko Goodrum has been pushed to the bench. Castro had an interesting season in 2020 hitting for more power than expected, but going 0-for1 on the base paths. He profiles as a speedy infielder without much power, so it is a bit confusing. His StatCast data doesn’t seem great for his power potential and if playing time is going to be an issue, it is best to fade him like everyone else. 

Jeimer Candelario (-16.77)- Candelario drop is a bit weird. He didn’t really disappoint in 2020 with seven homers and a stolen base and a .297 batting average. The average will drop, but he did have a .277 xBA and his StatCast data was pretty good. He will never be a stud like some thought he might, but he is a solid regular that has dual eligibility at 1B and 3B.