Third Base ADP Market Report: 3/20/22

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Justin Turner (+18.46)- I am bummed to see Turner rise so much because I have been loving his price this season. He is coming off of a great season where he offers great four category production with some chips in stolen bases. Health is the only real question mark for Turner, but he is still a great price. 

Matt Chapman (+10.42)- I think Chapman’s rise has mostly to do with an overcorrection on his low ADP. That being said, his ADP will continue to rise as draft season goes on  now that he has been traded to the Blue Jays. He will play every day in what is one of the best lineups in baseball, but the average will be low with that strikeout rate. In order to counter that, you have to roster two good average players and I just can’t imagine drafting him because of that. 

Eugenio Suarez (+19.64)- See the piece in this series on shortstops. 

Josh Donaldson (+16.07)- Donaldson is rising because people are realizing how good he is when he is on the field. Now that he has been traded to the Yankees, he will rise even further. There is some added risk due to injuries, but I think he is still a pretty nice price. 

Top 200 Players Falling

None

Top 300 Players Rising

Jonathan Villar (+13.89)- Villar is rising and that is before he even signed with the Cubs where he should find regular playing time as a super utility player. Villar has power and speed so it all comes down to his average, which has varied from year-to-year. I think he is still pretty affordable, but that may change now that he has a home. 

Alec Bohm (+10.73)- Last season I really loved Bohm. I think his rise has more to do with the low start to his ADP in draft season.  I believe in his contact skills and there is power in the bat, but he hits the ball on the ground too often to tap into it. He is a swing change away from a breakout and the price is right to gamble on, but it is a gamble. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Cavan Biggio (-14.79)- Biggio is dropping as the hyde from last year’s draft season completely wears off. Biggio struggled with injury and never really looked right. He makes a good amount of contact, but his StatCast data is uninspiring. There is definitely bounceback potential, but with the addition of Chapman, there is a chance he starts the year in the minors or loses his starting job. 

Others of Note

Mike Moustakas (+20.54)- Moustakas is starting to rise after just being ignored in the ADP after last year’s disappointment. With Suarez gone now, he should play every day, so expect the price to continue to rise. 

Ha Seong Kim (+13.08)- With Tatis out for three months, expect Kim to play close to every day and continue to rise a ton. 

Kevin Smith (59.02)- This rise has nothing to do ith the trade, but now that he has been traded, expect him to rise a ton. This is a really interesting power/speed profile that should play everyday in Oakland.