Third Base ADP Market Report: 1/31/22
With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.
Top 100 Players Rising
None
Top 100 Players Falling
None
Top 200 Players Rising
Ke’Bryan Hayes (+10.22)- Hayes’ rise probably has to do with the difficulty in finding speed late in drafts. Hayes stole nine bases in just 396 plate appearances after only playing in 96 games due to injury. I think there is close to league average power if he can raise his launch angle a bit, but the ability to potentially get 15+ stolen bases without being a zero in power is the real draw. We are still dreaming on the upside, but the price hasn’t gotten out of control yet.
Ryan McMahon (+13.12)- McMahon’s rise is likely a reaction to many people’s belief that the third base pool is shallow this season. They aren’t necessarily wrong, but I also don’t think there is another level for McMahon. He is a pretty safe bet to hit 20-25 home runs and steal a handful of bags and the multi-positional flexibility is nice, but if the price rises too much, it won’t be worth it.
Top 200 Players Falling
Matt Chapman (-9.38)- Chapman is coming off of a disappointing season in spite of hitting 27 home runs. One has to wonder if the hip issues bothered him throughout the year and led to the struggles. The strikeouts probably aren’t going anywhere, but he plays everyday and another year removed from the injury should make him an attractive option if he continues to fall.
Top 300 Players Rising
Abraham Toro (+20.62)- Toro is an interesting breakout candidate and he is rising due to Seager no longer being able to take time away from him. He has good control of the strike zone and doesn’t whiff. If he can get to 600 plate appearances, he can be a 20/10 guy, but if he continues these kinds of big jumps, he could price himself out of being as useful.
Top 300 Players Falling
Cavan Biggio (-14.69)- Biggio is dropping as the hyde from last year’s draft season completely wears off. Biggio struggled with injury and never really looked right. He makes a good amount of contact, but his StatCast data is uninspiring. There is definitely bounceback potential, but he we don’t know if he is completely healthy and could even also start the year in the minors, so there is a ton of risk.
Alec Bohm (-25.11)- Bohm is an interesting case. I believe in his contact skills and there is power in the bat, but he hits the ball on the ground too often to tap into it. He is a swing change away from a breakout and the price is right to gamble on, but it is a gamble.
Others of Note
Rougned Odor (+33.64)- Odor is rising after signing a deal with the Orioles where he is projected to at least have a strong side platoon role at second base. Not much has changed in the profile, he still can thump the ball, but he strikes out way too much. He is an interesting deep league gamble, but it may not be worth the trouble.
| 12/28/21-1/30/22 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 10/1/21-11/14/21 | 11/15/21-12/27/21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.74 | Jose Ramirez | CLE | 3B | 5.67 | 3.92 | 0.18 |
| 19.11 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 3B | 20 | 19.69 | 0.58 |
| 22.53 | Manny Machado | SD | 3B | 27.06 | 24.35 | 1.82 |
| 55.13 | Adalberto Mondesi | KC | 3B | 52.61 | 49.62 | -5.51 |
| 62.79 | Austin Riley | ATL | 3B | 56.89 | 57.77 | -5.02 |
| 81.08 | Nolan Arenado | STL | 3B | 74.94 | 81.92 | 0.84 |
| 99.26 | Alex Bregman | HOU | 3B | 94.06 | 101.42 | 2.16 |
| 100.13 | Kris Bryant | SF | 3B, OF | 92.28 | 93.92 | -6.21 |
| 115.76 | Anthony Rendon | LAA | 3B | 113.17 | 115.23 | -0.53 |
| 116.97 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | 123.28 | 117.15 | 0.18 |
| 134.82 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 3B | 149.94 | 145.04 | 10.22 |
| 152.92 | Yoan Moncada | CWS | 3B | 152.33 | 146.42 | -6.5 |
| 157.61 | Luis Urias | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 180.39 | 171.81 | 14.2 |
| 167.03 | Ryan McMahon | COL | 2B, 3B | 184.11 | 180.15 | 13.12 |
| 179.03 | Justin Turner | LAD | 3B | 165.83 | 169.65 | -9.38 |
| 200.71 | Matt Chapman | OAK | 3B | 186.11 | 196.65 | -4.06 |
| 201.63 | Eduardo Escobar | NYM | 2B, 3B | 200.39 | 197.04 | -4.59 |
| 214.63 | Jeimer Candelario | DET | 3B | 233.44 | 214.96 | 0.33 |
| 216.05 | Josh Donaldson | MIN | 3B | 232.5 | 223.27 | 7.22 |
| 217.55 | Eugenio Suarez | CIN | 3B, SS | 204.44 | 219.19 | 1.64 |
| 253.76 | Abraham Toro | SEA | 2B, 3B | 268.78 | 274.38 | 20.62 |
| 269.63 | Jonathan Villar | NYM | 3B, SS | 280.83 | 270 | 0.37 |
| 278.92 | Cavan Biggio | TOR | 3B | 286.78 | 264.23 | -14.69 |
| 279.5 | Gio Urshela | NYY | 3B, SS | 271.22 | 275.92 | -3.58 |
| 283.18 | Josh Jung | TEX | 3B | 300 | 286.77 | 3.59 |
| 293.42 | Luis Arraez | MIN | 2B, 3B, OF | 341.67 | 302.31 | 8.89 |
| 296.61 | Alec Bohm | PHI | 3B | 281 | 271.5 | -25.11 |
| 333.63 | Patrick Wisdom | CHC | 3B | 322.89 | 330.08 | -3.55 |
| 342.18 | Hunter Dozier | KC | 3B, OF | 332.44 | 332.81 | -9.37 |
| 345.87 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 1B, 3B | 374.61 | 368.81 | 22.94 |
| 347.82 | Joey Wendle | MIA | 3B, SS | 353.56 | 336.85 | -10.97 |
| 354.53 | Mike Moustakas | CIN | 3B | 361.78 | 376.19 | 21.66 |
| 357.92 | Ha-Seong Kim | SD | 2B, 3B, SS | 398.06 | 364.77 | 6.85 |
| 359.84 | Brian Anderson | MIA | 3B | 348.17 | 339.88 | -19.96 |
| 361.55 | Evan Longoria | SF | 3B | 411.22 | 384.88 | 23.33 |
| 372.32 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B, 2B, 3B | 379.33 | 390.08 | 17.76 |
| 375.16 | Josh Harrison | OAK | 2B, 3B, OF | 345.72 | 363.96 | -11.2 |
| 398.68 | Jose Miranda | MIN | 3B | 499.94 | 422.73 | 24.05 |
| 426.47 | J.D. Davis | NYM | 3B | 405.44 | 431.77 | 5.3 |
| 428.45 | Tyler Wade | LAA | 3B, SS, OF | 581.56 | 452.69 | 24.24 |
| 430.74 | Rougned Odor | BAL | 2B, 3B | 624.39 | 464.38 | 33.64 |
| 453.45 | Carter Kieboom | WAS | 3B | 478.06 | 469.62 | 16.17 |
| 473.61 | Santiago Espinal | TOR | 3B | 579.67 | 536.15 | 62.54 |
| 522.66 | Aledmys Diaz | HOU | 3B | 610.17 | 565.27 | 42.61 |
| 568.32 | Matt Duffy | CHC | 2B, 3B | 618.56 | 596.54 | 28.22 |
| 574.68 | Jon Berti | MIA | 2B, 3B | 559.56 | 577.15 | 2.47 |
| 621.55 | Nolan Jones | CLE | 3B | 592.39 | 631.85 | 10.3 |
| 624.16 | Jake Burger | CWS | 3B | 699.06 | 628 | 3.84 |
| 627.21 | Mike Brosseau | MLW | 2B, 3B | 711.61 | 629.04 | 1.83 |
| 628.97 | Yu Chang | CLE | 1B, 3B | 651.44 | 627.5 | -1.47 |
| 656.89 | Phil Gosselin | LAA | 1B, 3B, OF | 542.61 | 595.12 | -61.77 |
| 659.71 | Josh VanMeter | ARZ | 2B, 3B | 718.89 | 672.96 | 13.25 |
| 662.74 | Colton Welker | COL | 3B | 688.22 | 691.88 | 29.14 |
| 664.89 | Maikel Franco | BAL | 3B | 740.67 | 669.19 | 4.3 |
| 670.47 | Yonny Hernandez | TEX | 3B | 656.5 | 673.19 | 2.72 |
| 690.24 | David Bote | CHC | 2B, 3B | 607.39 | 678.23 | -12.01 |
| 708.63 | Elehuris Montero | COL | 3B | 721.11 | 722.81 | 14.18 |
| 708.95 | Kelvin Gutierrez | BAL | 3B | 737.83 | 712.12 | 3.17 |
| 725.76 | Kevin Smith | TOR | 3B | 737.28 | 731.19 | 5.43 |
| 726.18 | Joshua Fuentes | COL | 1B, 3B | 676.56 | 724.19 | -1.99 |
| 729.79 | Asdrubal Cabrera | CIN | 3B | 702.28 | 709.15 | -20.64 |
| 730.18 | Hanser Alberto | KC | 2B, 3B | 669.22 | 708.27 | -21.91 |
| 732.18 | Starlin Castro | WAS | 3B | 690.89 | 727.5 | -4.68 |
| 737.74 | Kyle Seager | SEA | 3B | 282.56 | 285.54 | -452.2 |
| 737.92 | Brett Baty | NYM | 3B | 710.33 | 741.27 | 3.35 |
| 739.55 | Travis Shaw | BOS | 1B, 3B | 694 | 737.92 | -1.63 |
| 739.63 | Romy Gonzalez | CWS | 3B | 714.17 | 729.96 | -9.67 |
| 739.82 | Jack Mayfield | LAA | 3B | 714.39 | 728.54 | -11.28 |
| 743.29 | Brendan Donovan | STL | 3B | NA | 725.77 | -17.52 |
| 746.82 | Charlie Culberson | TEX | 3B | 749.28 | 748.12 | 1.3 |
| 747.29 | Emmanuel Rivera | KC | 3B | NA | 743.62 | -3.67 |
| 747.89 | Willians Astudillo | MIN | 1B, 3B | 731.22 | 733.73 | -14.16 |
| 748.89 | Isan Diaz | MIA | 2B, 3B | 732.06 | 740.15 | -8.74 |
| 749.63 | Ryan Dorow | TEX | 3B | NA | NA | NA |
| 750.63 | Jason Vosler | SF | 3B | 734.61 | 747.62 | -3.01 |
| 750.79 | Ronald Torreyes | PHI | 3B, SS | 727.33 | 744.19 | -6.6 |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Hey Justin, you may wish to update the date in the title because at first I thought this was going to be an old article bumped up due to recent site issues.
Similarly, it looks like the Change column in the table isn’t accurate (or some ADP data in the table aren’t correct).
I wonder if this really is a 1/31 update, even though it’s posted on 2/8, because the first column (where the Change column checks against) is from 12/28/21 – 1/31/22. So either this article is an old one but got re-posted for today, or it’s a new article referencing old data… both of which would be puzzling choices. Hopefully there’s a 2/8 update article out there somewhere.