Third Base ADP Market Report: 1/31/22

by
February 8, 2022

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Ke’Bryan Hayes (+10.22)- Hayes’ rise probably has to do with the difficulty in finding speed late in drafts. Hayes stole nine bases in just 396 plate appearances after only playing in 96 games due to injury. I think there is close to league average power if he can raise his launch angle a bit, but the ability to potentially get 15+ stolen bases without being a zero in power is the real draw. We are still dreaming on the upside, but the price hasn’t gotten out of control yet. 

Ryan McMahon (+13.12)- McMahon’s rise is likely a reaction to many people’s belief that the third base pool is shallow this season. They aren’t necessarily wrong, but I also don’t think there is another level for McMahon. He is a pretty safe bet to hit 20-25 home runs and steal a handful of bags and the multi-positional flexibility is nice, but if the price rises too much, it won’t be worth it. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Matt Chapman (-9.38)- Chapman is coming off of a disappointing season in spite of hitting 27 home runs. One has to wonder if the hip issues bothered him throughout the year and led to the struggles. The strikeouts probably aren’t going anywhere, but he plays everyday and another year removed from the injury should make him an attractive option if he continues to fall. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Abraham Toro (+20.62)- Toro is an interesting breakout candidate and he is rising due to Seager no longer being able to take time away from him. He has good control of the strike zone and doesn’t whiff. If he can get to 600 plate appearances, he can be a 20/10 guy, but if he continues these kinds of big jumps, he could price himself out of being as useful. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Cavan Biggio (-14.69)- Biggio is dropping as the hyde from last year’s draft season completely wears off. Biggio struggled with injury and never really looked right. He makes a good amount of contact, but his StatCast data is uninspiring. There is definitely bounceback potential, but he we don’t know if he is completely healthy and could even also start the year in the minors, so there is a ton of risk. 

Alec Bohm (-25.11)- Bohm is an interesting case. I believe in his contact skills and there is power in the bat, but he hits the ball on the ground too often to tap into it. He is a swing change away from a breakout and the price is right to gamble on, but it is a gamble. 

Others of Note

Rougned Odor (+33.64)- Odor is rising after signing a deal with the Orioles where he is projected to at least have a strong side platoon role at second base. Not much has changed in the profile, he still can thump the ball, but he strikes out way too much. He is an interesting deep league gamble, but it may not be worth the trouble. 

 

Third Base ADP Market Report: 1/31/22
12/28/21-1/30/22 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/21-11/14/21 11/15/21-12/27/21 Change
3.74 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 5.67 3.92 0.18
19.11 Rafael Devers BOS 3B 20 19.69 0.58
22.53 Manny Machado SD 3B 27.06 24.35 1.82
55.13 Adalberto Mondesi KC 3B 52.61 49.62 -5.51
62.79 Austin Riley ATL 3B 56.89 57.77 -5.02
81.08 Nolan Arenado STL 3B 74.94 81.92 0.84
99.26 Alex Bregman HOU 3B 94.06 101.42 2.16
100.13 Kris Bryant SF 3B, OF 92.28 93.92 -6.21
115.76 Anthony Rendon LAA 3B 113.17 115.23 -0.53
116.97 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 123.28 117.15 0.18
134.82 Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT 3B 149.94 145.04 10.22
152.92 Yoan Moncada CWS 3B 152.33 146.42 -6.5
157.61 Luis Urias MLW 2B, 3B, SS 180.39 171.81 14.2
167.03 Ryan McMahon COL 2B, 3B 184.11 180.15 13.12
179.03 Justin Turner LAD 3B 165.83 169.65 -9.38
200.71 Matt Chapman OAK 3B 186.11 196.65 -4.06
201.63 Eduardo Escobar NYM 2B, 3B 200.39 197.04 -4.59
214.63 Jeimer Candelario DET 3B 233.44 214.96 0.33
216.05 Josh Donaldson MIN 3B 232.5 223.27 7.22
217.55 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B, SS 204.44 219.19 1.64
253.76 Abraham Toro SEA 2B, 3B 268.78 274.38 20.62
269.63 Jonathan Villar NYM 3B, SS 280.83 270 0.37
278.92 Cavan Biggio TOR 3B 286.78 264.23 -14.69
279.5 Gio Urshela NYY 3B, SS 271.22 275.92 -3.58
283.18 Josh Jung TEX 3B 300 286.77 3.59
293.42 Luis Arraez MIN 2B, 3B, OF 341.67 302.31 8.89
296.61 Alec Bohm PHI 3B 281 271.5 -25.11
333.63 Patrick Wisdom CHC 3B 322.89 330.08 -3.55
342.18 Hunter Dozier KC 3B, OF 332.44 332.81 -9.37
345.87 Yandy Diaz TB 1B, 3B 374.61 368.81 22.94
347.82 Joey Wendle MIA 3B, SS 353.56 336.85 -10.97
354.53 Mike Moustakas CIN 3B 361.78 376.19 21.66
357.92 Ha-Seong Kim SD 2B, 3B, SS 398.06 364.77 6.85
359.84 Brian Anderson MIA 3B 348.17 339.88 -19.96
361.55 Evan Longoria SF 3B 411.22 384.88 23.33
372.32 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B, 3B 379.33 390.08 17.76
375.16 Josh Harrison OAK 2B, 3B, OF 345.72 363.96 -11.2
398.68 Jose Miranda MIN 3B 499.94 422.73 24.05
426.47 J.D. Davis NYM 3B 405.44 431.77 5.3
428.45 Tyler Wade LAA 3B, SS, OF 581.56 452.69 24.24
430.74 Rougned Odor BAL 2B, 3B 624.39 464.38 33.64
453.45 Carter Kieboom WAS 3B 478.06 469.62 16.17
473.61 Santiago Espinal TOR 3B 579.67 536.15 62.54
522.66 Aledmys Diaz HOU 3B 610.17 565.27 42.61
568.32 Matt Duffy CHC 2B, 3B 618.56 596.54 28.22
574.68 Jon Berti MIA 2B, 3B 559.56 577.15 2.47
621.55 Nolan Jones CLE 3B 592.39 631.85 10.3
624.16 Jake Burger CWS 3B 699.06 628 3.84
627.21 Mike Brosseau MLW 2B, 3B 711.61 629.04 1.83
628.97 Yu Chang CLE 1B, 3B 651.44 627.5 -1.47
656.89 Phil Gosselin LAA 1B, 3B, OF 542.61 595.12 -61.77
659.71 Josh VanMeter ARZ 2B, 3B 718.89 672.96 13.25
662.74 Colton Welker COL 3B 688.22 691.88 29.14
664.89 Maikel Franco BAL 3B 740.67 669.19 4.3
670.47 Yonny Hernandez TEX 3B 656.5 673.19 2.72
690.24 David Bote CHC 2B, 3B 607.39 678.23 -12.01
708.63 Elehuris Montero COL 3B 721.11 722.81 14.18
708.95 Kelvin Gutierrez BAL 3B 737.83 712.12 3.17
725.76 Kevin Smith TOR 3B 737.28 731.19 5.43
726.18 Joshua Fuentes COL 1B, 3B 676.56 724.19 -1.99
729.79 Asdrubal Cabrera CIN 3B 702.28 709.15 -20.64
730.18 Hanser Alberto KC 2B, 3B 669.22 708.27 -21.91
732.18 Starlin Castro WAS 3B 690.89 727.5 -4.68
737.74 Kyle Seager SEA 3B 282.56 285.54 -452.2
737.92 Brett Baty NYM 3B 710.33 741.27 3.35
739.55 Travis Shaw BOS 1B, 3B 694 737.92 -1.63
739.63 Romy Gonzalez CWS 3B 714.17 729.96 -9.67
739.82 Jack Mayfield LAA 3B 714.39 728.54 -11.28
743.29 Brendan Donovan STL 3B NA 725.77 -17.52
746.82 Charlie Culberson TEX 3B 749.28 748.12 1.3
747.29 Emmanuel Rivera KC 3B NA 743.62 -3.67
747.89 Willians Astudillo MIN 1B, 3B 731.22 733.73 -14.16
748.89 Isan Diaz MIA 2B, 3B 732.06 740.15 -8.74
749.63 Ryan Dorow TEX 3B NA NA NA
750.63 Jason Vosler SF 3B 734.61 747.62 -3.01
750.79 Ronald Torreyes PHI 3B, SS 727.33 744.19 -6.6
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
ADP and positional flexibility are based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues.





 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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LightenUpFGmember
2 years ago

Hey Justin, you may wish to update the date in the title because at first I thought this was going to be an old article bumped up due to recent site issues.

2
jbona3member
2 years ago
Reply to  LightenUpFG

Similarly, it looks like the Change column in the table isn’t accurate (or some ADP data in the table aren’t correct).

1
LightenUpFGmember
2 years ago
Reply to  jbona3

I wonder if this really is a 1/31 update, even though it’s posted on 2/8, because the first column (where the Change column checks against) is from 12/28/21 – 1/31/22. So either this article is an old one but got re-posted for today, or it’s a new article referencing old data… both of which would be puzzling choices. Hopefully there’s a 2/8 update article out there somewhere.

1