The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 528 – First & Third Base Previews
3/1/18
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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
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- Logan Morrison to MIN (7:00)
- Lucas Duda to KC (11:45)
- Tim Lincecum to TEX (13:40)
- Francisco Liriano to DET (20:32)
- Lance Lynn has had talks w/PHI (26:00)
Strategy Section: Corner Infield Previews
- ADP – Set date at 2/15/2018
- 1B by tier (31:16)
- Cody Bellinger (32:48)
- Paul Goldschmidt (36:11)
- Freddie Freeman (41:00)
- Joey Votto (43:00)
- Anthony Rizzo (43:48)
- Edwin Encarnacion (47:32)
- Rhys Hoskins (47:50)
- Jose Abreu (52:00)
- Wil Myers (54:30)
- Eric Hosmer (56:20)
- Miguel Cabrera (58:10)
- Matt Olson (59:27)
- Ian Desmond (1:02:20)
- Joey Gallo (1:02:32)
- Matt Carpenter (1:05:19)
- Justin Smoak (1:06:25)
- Ryan Zimmerman (1:08:00)
- Josh Bell (1:08:36)
- Ryon Healy/Yulieski Gurriel injuries (1:12:30)
- Chris Davis (1:16:03)
- Jose Martinez (1:19:05)
- Yonder Alonso (1:23:27)
- Brandon Belt (1:27:00)
- Ryan McMahon (1:30:20)
- Colin Moran (1:35:00)
- Wilmer Flores (1:36:50)
- C.J. Cron (1:40:15)
- Mitch Moreland/Hanley Ramirez (1:40:25)
- Matt Adams (1:44:15)
- Joe Mauer (1:44:28)
- 3B by tier (1:45:10)
- Nolan Arenado (1:45:20)
- Josh Donaldson (1:47:20)
- Jose Ramirez (1:49:40)
- Manny Machado (1:50:11)
- Alex Bregman (1:53:18)
- Anthony Rendon (1:56:20)
- Travis Shaw v. Justin Turner (1:58:30)
- Nick Castellanos (2:03:20)
- Miguel Sano’s generous carriage (2:07:00)
- Jake Lamb (2:11:22)
- Mike Moustakas (2:14:45)
- Rafael Devers (2:15:25)
- Eduardo Nunez (2:17:20)
- Adrian Beltre (2:19:17)
- Maikel Franco (2:22:05)
- Eugenio Suarez (2:23:24)
- Evan Longoria (2:26:35)
- The Mets – Frazier, Asdrubal, Reyes (2:31:05)
- Josh Harrison (2:34:15)
- Yangervis Solarte (2:35:55)
- Cory Spangenberg (2:37:40)
- Jedd Gyorko (2:39:58)
- Jeimer Candelario (2:41:20)
- J.P. Crawford/Nick Senzel (2:42:13)
- Derek Dietrich (2:49:30)
- Logan Forsythe (2:49:49)
- Matt Duffy (2:52:52)
- Yandy Diaz/Hunter Dozier (2:54:19)
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Approximately 177 minutes of joyous analysis.
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no bryant? bird?
:lists 65 players discussed in a 3 hour episode:
“yeah, but what about these 2???”
You guys are absolute crazy people with these marathon episodes. And I mean that in the most endearing way possible, it’s amazing.
all the more reason? what’s two more?
and…these guys are fairly important, no? bryant is arguably the top 3b and bird is in the middle of the best lineup in the league. just seemed like strange omissions!
not saying you did a bad job or anything, but this stood out. that’s all.
Just listen to the episode!
I just got a chance to listen to this one and I do have to agree on Bird. He is a pretty high profile player with a really wide range of results. If you could I would personally like to hear your thoughts on him. The injury history and the fact I think he is going to bat 6th or later limits his upside some and I’m not sure he can hit lefties. But I can understand people making the case for him being a top 15 player at the position or outside the top 25. He is one of the more interesting 1B out there and one of the more polarizing ones.
The bad pick comparison at the beginning should’ve been Rangers pitchers vs Marlins pitchers. Straily vs Hamels……FIGHT!
As a listener since the Towers of Power days, I was shocked by the level of shade thrown at Cody Bellinger. Normally if a player has a bad period, Paul is quick to say small sample size. If he had struggled in spring training or April, the answer would have been SSS. Since a 22 year old kid, on the biggest stage, struggled against some of the best pitchers, he gets crushed? Darvish is seen as a buying opportunity after struggling worse, and costing his team more? Not to mention lots of other fantasy stars who have struggled in the post season who were happily drafted in the first round the next year (Harper as a recent example, beloved by Paul and Jason).
I get taking this and saying he isn’t tier one. But when it was said he is the next Joc Peterson, I was dumbfounded. You are taking a much smaller sample (post season) over a much larger sample of really good baseball (regular season). When Justin suggested the Dodgers would bench Bellinger, this wasn’t refuted. Very hot take! There is 0% chance he gets benched, and it is ridiculous to suggest. Name one other prospect of his pedigree, who succeeds in his first year beyond all reasonable expectation, who plays good defense, who gets benched or demoted the very next year? He’ll have a long leash even if he is the next Joc.
All fair points, but my one pushback will be that it’s entirely based on price. I do love the player, he was among my favorites at AFL in ’16, but I think we’re paying full freight and that allows no wiggle room for any sort of sophomore slump/adjustment. I don’t recall Justin saying he’d be benched, but I should’ve pushed back on that bc I don’t really see that as anything but a 3-5% probability outcome.
The Joc Pederson thing was more tongue-in-cheek than anything else, but bad Belly is like a better Joc. I think my only point is that there’s risk here and he’s too expensive for me.
Thanks for the explanation. Big fan of your work.
You are counting Bryant as Outfielder?
Good job Paul & Justin
Great pod as always. What was the other podcast you guys mentioned you liked?Wanted to take a listen to it.
I am pretty sure I have heard you talk discuss Robbie Ray in depth before but I was just wondering what your thought are on him especially after the humidor addition? Is his floor higher than his 2016 season especially if I sit him for Coors starts. If you could point me in the right direction or respond in here that would be great!!
Thanks guys. Makes my workout enjoyable.
I may have totally spaced out while driving, but did you guys not mention Kyle Seager on the pod? Grabbed him for $11 when there wasn’t a lot of 3B options available (Beltre $8 and Longo $9) in my Ottoneu auction last night. I was looking forward to hearing your guys’ thoughts on him.