The Powerless and Speedless Eric Hosmer

Like seemingly every Royals hitter at some point in the last couple of years, we have been waiting for a major Eric Hosmer breakout since he debuted in 2011. He teased us with his power potential by posting a .303 ISO over about a third of a season at Double-A back in 2010, all the while making excellent contact at most of his minor league stops and even showing some speed. A first baseman who might not only sock 20+ homers, but also swipe some bags and hit for a strong batting average? Fantasy gold!

Unfortunately, Hosmer’s performance has truly been yo-yoesque over his relatively short career. Check out his wOBA trend during his four years in Kansas City:

It’s not what fantasy owners had hoped for from the now 24-year-old. Instead, we expected steady growth, especially in terms of power. And speaking of power, it disappeared this season. A .127 ISO from a first baseman, which actually sits below the entire league average, is simply inexcusable. It’s even more so when not supplemented by a high, or even average, walk rate or lofty batting average.

Heading into 2014, Hosmer’s average fly ball and home run distance trend was exciting. This is what it looked like at the time:

In 2013, his distance sat at about 297 feet, good for 26th in all of baseball. With just a 13% HR/FB rate, it suggested some serious home run upside. Sadly, this is what the trend now looks like after the completion of the 2014 season:

That’s about 20 feet of distance that he lost from 2013 to 2014. That’s significant, and although I haven’t calculated the season’s biggest distance losers yet, I would imagine his descent would rank near the top. If there’s any silver lining, it’s that he did post the highest doubles per at-bat rate of his career. So at least his power didn’t completely vanish. But since his overall distance was down, this isn’t a case of balls just falling short of the wall and the randomness of whether a ball goes for a homer or a double. He legitimately suffered a power outage.

He’s doing his best now to quell our concerns with his postseason play, as he has already belted two homers, to go along with a double and a triple. He has credited shortening his swing after returning from a hand injury, which could be a genuine explanation or just noise.

What particularly interests me is his batted ball distribution. He has always hit too many ground balls to become a serious power threat, generally hovering in the 25%-30% fly ball rate range. But in a tiny sample during the postseason with just 16 balls in play, he has actually hit nearly double the number of flies as grounders. If Hosmer could push his fly ball rate into at least the high 30% range, he doesn’t even need to experience a significant HR/FB rate rebound to push his homer total over the 20 plateau.

What was intriguing about Hosmer from a fantasy perspective was his rare ability to steal bases from a position us owners rarely get such contributions from. But even his stolen bases fell off a cliff, as he attempted just six steals, succeeding four times. It’s hard enough to project the stolen base totals from actual speedsters (see: Everth Cabrera). Players who steal bases simply because they like to, but possess just average speed, are even tougher. You just don’t know when they are going to suddenly stop. Nick Markakis stole 12 bases in 2011. Since then, he’s swiped just six. And it’s hard to believe if you don’t remember, but even Carlos Lee, as large a man as he was, stole 17 bases in 2001, then just one the following season, before rebounding to swipe 18 the next year. You just never know. As a result, it’s probably best to project just a marginal rebound in the speed department for Hosmer. Perhaps six steals would be reasonable, as you don’t want to pay for any more than that and get burned.

There are some glimmers of hope, of course. Hosmer will still be just 25 next year and his SwStk% actually declined to the lowest mark of his career, despite a career high strikeout percentage. While his postseason heroics could remind fantasy owners not to give up hope, he should still come cheaper than ever in drafts. As a result, he’ll likely be a near lock to earn a profit if you decide to roster him.