Howard’s Last Hurrah?

Ryan Howard has always been a charged topic on FanGraphs. He’s long been considered among the worst “values” in real baseball. Whatever complaints you may have about WAR, you probably agree it’s good enough for a quick and dirty analysis. Howard has posted -1.0 WAR over the last three seasons (yes, that’s a negative) and just 1.5 WAR over the last five seasons. Clearly, we’re not talking about a very good real world player. I won’t bother you with how much he’s been paid for that nonexistent production.

Things are different in our little fantasy world. In a season where Howard posted a .223/.310/.380 line – pitiful production for any hitter – he was still the 16th most valuable first baseman at nearly $8 of value. He contributed to fantasy rosters because he played often and usually hit fourth. That led to 23 home runs and 95 RBI, which ain’t too shabby in today’s offense depressed environment.

Despite a decent return for his fantasy owners, Philadelphia appears poised to discard the erstwhile slugger. There are rumbles of a desperate trade to any AL club – ostensibly for a couple million dollars of salary relief. Even if a trade can’t be worked out, he could be cut or reduced to a bench role. Philadelphia’s talent evaluators insist that Darin Ruf is a backup, but he’s been substantially better than Howard in recent seasons. If Howard remains on the active roster, a platoon role with Ruf is all but certain. Whenever Maikel Franco is ready for an everyday job – which could be at any point next season – Howard will find himself with more competition.

The days of Howard the cleanup hitter are closing, and that means his otherwise tepid production is going to look a lot more like Mark Reynolds (22 home runs, 45 RBI). If we can’t rely on Howard batting fourth, then we can’t roster him as anything more than a streamable platoon bat.

Speaking of platoons, his numbers from this season were weird. He hit better against lefties than righties, which goes against everything that’s ever happened in his career. Lefties usually make Howard disappear, and I have little trouble expecting that trend to return in 2015. After all, he still struck out 37 percent of the time against same-handed pitching.

I’m very concerned about his numbers versus right-handers. In 459 plate appearances, he posted a 84 wRC+ with just 13 home runs. If that’s even close to what we can expect going forward, then there’s no point in even going the platoon route with Howard.

He remains an extreme pull hitter with most of his power to the opposite field. He used to set records with opposite field home runs. This year, only one home run was truly pulled. Check it out.

I drew a little ellipse in left-field. Those are the balls that would usually leave the park during his prime. I doubt he’ll ever get those back. If anything, he’ll start to lose more of those center field blasts as he enters his age 35 season.

Looking over potential destinations, I see only one that really fits. If Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field became Howard’s new home, I could foresee a brief, tepid renaissance. A designated hitter platoon with Dayan Viciedo wouldn’t be the worst option for Chicago – assuming they’re only on the hook for a couple million of Howard’s contract. The Orioles and Yankees also have the right stadiums for Howard, but they lack a compelling use case. With Chicago, Howard could work as a Plan D if they miss on Victor Martinez, Yasmany Tomas, or any number of other hitters.

At the end of the day, most of you were probably staying away from Howard before reading this analysis. I’ve probably only strengthened that conviction. He’s the same hitter now that he was years ago, except with less bat speed. The outlook isn’t pretty. The best case scenario is to land in one of maybe three or four stadiums. Even if he does, his role will likely be so limited that he’ll be hard to use. If you made use of him last season, be thankful for the $8 return. Unfortunately, we might have witnessed the last hurrah of a former fantasy giant.