The Hottest Pickups This Week 8/22: Yay or Nay?

Let’s take another gander at the week’s most popular pickups in CBS leagues. Are you fantasy owners crazy or uncovering diamonds in the rough?

This Week’s Hottest CBS Pickups
Player Previous Week Current Week Change
Reynaldo Lopez 19 62 43
Chad Green 6 36 30
Gary Sanchez 49 79 30
Homer Bailey 43 73 30
Anibal Sanchez 23 51 28

Reynaldo Lopez has been in and out of the Nationals rotation, but he may be here to stay this time around. After a dominating seven inning, 11 strikeout performance against the Braves last Thursday, his strikeout rate sits at 25.5%. On tap for a two-start week, he actually makes for a legitimate speculation, unlike some of the pitchers I questioned last week. With a high octane fastball and a curve and changeup that has generated a SwStk% in the mid-teen range, it’s easy to believe in the gobs of strikeouts. But with the exception of his performance in Double-A this year, he has never shown this type of ability to punch out batters and his non-fastball scouting grades are nothing special. His control also hasn’t been any good and he’s been a fly ball pitcher. Clearly, there are risks here, and I haven’t even mentioned yet that he’s a 22-year-old rookie. I could understand the 62% ownership rate for the two-start week, but it shouldn’t remain that high.

Chad Green is another who has back in and out of a rotation, this one being the Yankees one. He doesn’t have a two-start week, but yesterday’s strong start, which followed a dominant outing against the Blue Jays a week ago, has owners paying attention. Green hasn’t exactly been a prospect, but hasn’t been completely ignored, even at the age of 25. He made Carson Cistulli’s Fringe Five and has thrown one of the most whiff-inducing fastballs among starting pitchers (17th in Whiff/Swing among all pitchers with at least 200 four-seamers thrown). I doubt that’s sustainable though and his slider has been a tick below average in the SwStk% department. Still, I think he’s worth a shot as a streamer and deserves a permanent home in deeper leagues. His ownership rate is probably a touch low.

My only question relating to Gary Sanchez is how is his ownership percentage only 79%?! Even if your league only plays one catcher, he has to be owned. Obviously, he won’t keep up this pace, as no one is good enough to post a 46.2% HR/FB rate. But he’s going to play nearly every day and has a spot in the middle of the order.

I typically shy away from Tommy John returnees, but Homer Bailey has been excellent. His velocity has been good and he’s been inducing lots of swings and misses. As usual with TJ returnees, Bailey’s control has been a bit off, as his strike percentage is at its lowest mark since 2009, but it has been just four starts and 19.2 innings. In deep leagues, he needs to be owned and he’s at the very least a streamer in shallow, mixed formats.

Anibal Sanchez has gotten good results in three of his last four starts, but that other start was an absolute clunker that reminded us why we can’t trust him. He’s got two starts this week, which explains the ownership spike and they are decent matchups. His velocity has been down all year and home runs continue to plague him. Even with two starts, it’s difficult to feel comfortable moving him into your lineup, and seeing that he’s owned in 51% of leagues is a bit crazy.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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baltic wolfmember
7 years ago

A big Yay for Chad Green, at least for those of us in deeper and AL-only formats. The slider has been better his last two starts generating whiffs 21% of the time in his start vs. Toronto and nearly 15% of the time in his start yesterday against the Angels. For some reason (didn’t have a feel for it; protecting the arm?) he didn’t throw the slider nearly as much yesterday—27% of the time—as he did on Monday, when it was particularly effective. He threw sliders over 40% of the time in his first start last week.
And as Mike predicted the whiff rate he had shown with his four seamer did drop yesterday as he only managed a roughly 5% swinging strike rate with the pitch vs. the Angels, but he is throwing a two seamer and a cutter a little bit more than he did in his first starts of the season.
I wouldn’t jump to get him in a shallow redraft league because he’s essentially a two pitch pitcher at this time. But in a dynasty format, esp. deep leagues, since it appears he’s trying to add pitches to his arsenal, he averages 95mph with his heater, and his slider has improved, he’s well worth stashing.