The 2015-2016 Brls/BBE Leaders

Yesterday, I introduced you to the new Statcast fueled xHR/FB rate equation I developed during my recent xMetric frenzy. It’s simple to use, requiring just a couple of variables, and its components are easily accessible. So now armed with all the data that led to the equation, let’s dive in, explore, and have a little fun.

We’ll begin with the two-year leaders in the Brls/BBE metric, which essentially quantifies the rate at which a batter hits the living daylights out of the ball. Obviously, this has a high correlation with HR/FB rate and if you wanted to be super lazy, using it alone is a respectable shortcut to estimating a batter’s home run power.

Let’s go with the top 20:

It’s the shock of the century folks, none other than GIANCARLO STANTON is at the top. Never, EEEEEVAH, would have guessed that.

Check out who’s number two! Of course, that’s only 2015 numbers, and of course, that’s over just 48 batted ball events (Stanton was at 405, and the high on the list was at 785). We know Joey Gallo possesses mammoth power, but he can’t tap into that power enough given his problems actually making contact with the baseball. Just for the fun of it and to see what would happen, the Rangers should give him 600 plate appearances blindly. You want to see what kind of line Gallo would post, right?!

Oh, Justin Ruggiano, how I used to like you. Now you can’t tempt me any longer.

Holy guacamole, perhaps Gary Sanchez really does hold immense power. Though of course nothing would support a 40% HR/FB rate. But seriously, where did this come from? He never hinted at this kind of power in the minors. Rapid growth happening right in front of our eyes, or the hottest two months in history?

I thought Byung-ho Park was massively overvalued in drafts last year, but now I really like him for a rebound. It’s too bad a starting job is no longer in the bag. That’s going to depress his draft day cost as people forget and in AL-Only leagues, especially those that count OBP, he’s going to be a great target.

Gregory Bird. Your second true sleeper (if Park counts as the first). Brad Johnson was the first to share his excitement, and agrees with me that it’s silly our Depth Chart shows Tyler Austin as the starting first baseman. Bird is a left-handed fly ball hitter with huge power, playing his home games in the best park for left-handed home runs. Jackpot!

Ryan Schimpf ain’t no shrimp(f). Once again, Brad Johnson highlighted Schimpf’s amazingly odd season, as he posted the second highest fly ball rate among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances since 2002! Combine an extreme fly ball tendency with lots of barreling action and you get the potential for loads of homers.

Rickie Weeks Jr.! Wait, when did he append Jr. onto his name? Clearly it’s what led to his sudden turnaround. Where were you when everyone was waiting for that big breakout?! C’mon Rickie!

While we didn’t exactly see this coming from Trevor Story, his appearance here validates the huge power he showed. It’s too bad that his injury hasn’t caused fantasy owners to forget of his existence though — he’s still going 29th overall and sixth among shortstops according to NFBC ADP. I’d much rather own him than Xander Bogaerts (27th/4th) though, which definitely doesn’t surprise you.

Justin Smoak had his best power season in 2015 that I called, but regressed a bit last year, amid inconsistent playing time. It looks like he may get another opportunity for semi-regular at-bats, with only Steve Pearce to battle.

Originally, I was going to discuss the hitters at the bottom of the Brls/BBE barrel. But after looking at the names, it seemed silly. You don’t need a list like that to tell you that Ben Revere and Billy Hamilton have, like, no power. So that’s it for today. Tomorrow, I’ll share a list of the fantasy relevant hitters that gained and lost the most Brls/BBE from 2015 to 2016.