Archive for Troy Tulowitzki

Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield.  You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here.  As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA.  I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.

Middle Infield

Elite Three (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it):

Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75

Read the rest of this entry »

Commenters in my last post asked how to determine position scarcity in FanGraphs Points leagues, and another reader, Kris, suggested using box plots.  I figured “hey, that’s a good idea for a post.”  So, here is a box plot based on Marcel projected 2011 performances for starters at each hitting position (using the numbers of players per position that Zach used here).

Read the rest of this entry »

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of September/October, without any position factor considered. Hitters 4-9 could probably be arranged in any order you like, although the top three hitters seem set.

10. Victor Martinez .330-7-25-17-0

These are great numbers for anyone and they are spectacular for a catcher. Martinez is a free agent following this season and it will be interesting to see how many years a club feels comfortable giving him. Fantasy-wise, he is likely to move up from last year’s 48 ADP on ESPN.

9. Jayson Werth .300-9-22-23-4

A free agent at the end of the year, Werth did everything in his power to become one of the top players available on the open market. The Phillies have top prospect Domonic Brown ready to step in for Werth but it will be strange to see him on another team next Spring.

8. Andrew McCutchen .324-4-16-22-5

Coming into the 2010 season, many fantasy players wondered if McCutchen could be a consistent HR threat. While he will never be confused as a bopper, he seems very capable of putting up a 20-HR, 40-SB season in 2011.

7. Chase Utley .306-5-24-21-7

After suffering a torn ligament in his thumb that required surgery, Utley came back quicker than many people expected. He missed just six weeks of action and after a couple of weeks to play himself back in shape, Utley responded with production that fantasy leaguers have come to expect. Now the question remains if he is still a first-round pick or if age and injury concerns drop him lower.

6. Carl Crawford .360-4-19-16-6

Another free agent, Crawford did everything fantasy owners hoped he would do and finished the year as one of the Top 10 fantasy hitters, again. The big question for fantasy players is if Crawford moves to a new team, will he get more SB chances? With an 82 percent success ratio last season, owners would love to see him get even more opportunities than the 57 he had in 2010.

5. Mike Aviles .333-6-14-20-7

In the final month of the season, Aviles hit 6 of his 8 HR and had 7 of his 14 SB for the season. After going undrafted in many 12-team mixed leagues this year, Aviles undoubtedly will be a hot target for fantasy league players in 2011.

4. Drew Stubbs .316-7-18-19-6

With the Reds making the playoffs, Stubbs will be introduced to the wider baseball audience for the first time. Fantasy league players are already aware of the just-turned 26-year-old, who saved his best for the final month of the season.

3. Shin-Soo Choo .340-7-27-19-7

How’s this for consistency – last year Choo had a .300-20-86-87-21 line and this year it was .300-22-90-81-22 line. The only problem with Choo is that he has a two-year obligation to the South Korea military hanging over his head. Choo will be representing his country in the upcoming Asian games and if South Korea wins the Gold Medal, he will likely have the requirement waved. But what if they don’t finish first and Choo goes through with his duty? Is there any chance he could return to be an MLB-quality hitter after sitting out two of his late-prime years?

2. Carlos Gonzalez .378-5-26-24-6

Without a doubt, Gonzalez is this year’s fantasy MVP. He had a preseason ADP of 131.1 according to ESPN but finished as the top-rated player in fantasy, with a $43 12-team mixed value, according to Last Player Picked. Gonzalez had a terrific final month of the year, but it wasn’t quite good enough to be the best.

1. Troy Tulowitzki .303-15-40-30-2

In the last three years, Tulowitzki has played 101, 151 and 122 games. No fantasy player questions his talent, but how soon are you ready to pull the trigger on a player who has missed roughly 1/3 of the season in two of the past three years? And should we be even a tiny bit worried about the new chain of command in regards to the baseballs at Coors Field? Tulowitzki had a 1.034 OPS at home this year and an .863 mark at home.

Honorable Mention – Albert Pujols, Mike Stanton, Corey Hart, Alex Rodriguez, Matt Holliday and Mark Ellis

Last week, after a throwaway comment about his inclusion among the elite shortstops, we had a delightful repartee in the comments section about Jimmy Rollins. I rarely own Rollins because of his first- and second-round cost, but perceive him as elite from afar, so some of the comments surprised me. Was his 2008 “crappy?” Has he really not been elite for years? Do you have to be taken in the first two rounds to be elite? Let’s try and go at this without preconceptions and work forward.

What is elite? I might have a healthy Rollins as the fourth- or fifth-best shortstop in the fantasy baseball this year. Would that be elite? A comparable outfielder would be one that was in the top third at his position, or the ninth- or tenth-best OF. That would be somewhere between Vladimir Guerrero and Hunter Pence so far in 2010. That doesn’t pass the sniff test, so it doesn’t look like Rollins is ‘elite’ if elite means something like the top tenth at a certain position. Certainly, Rollins is not passing Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes is healthier and younger, so that’s debatable as well.

So does Rollins belong in the same tier even? He does own a career 105 wRC+, which looks great compared to the average batting-average qualifying shortstop this year – 86 wRC+. Perhaps a comparison to Troy Tulowitzki will help. Tulo put up 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases to Rollins’ 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases last year, and while that seems fairly comparable, Rollins of course had a .250 batting average while he accrued his stats, compared to Tulo’s much more palatable .297 number. Case closed? Rollins’ batting average sinks him from the tier?

Maybe. It’s pretty stark. But Rollins had a .251 BABIP last year, which pales next to Tulowitzki’s .316 in the same season, and also next to his own .291 career BABIP. So if Rollins had put up something closer to his .273 career batting average, he probably would be a lot closer to fitting in the tier, no?

Then there’s the issue of Tulowitzki’s speed. It’s inconsistent. It’s not something to depend on. His career success rate is 61%, and his career speed score is 5.1 (5.0 is average). He never stole more than six bases in a minor league season, either. It wouldn’t be going out on a limb to predict that he’ll never again steal twenty bases.

So let’s try to ‘normalize’ Tulowitzki’s stats using his career ISO and this analysis of his speed. If he’s a .190 ISO guy, with questionable speed, we might want to guesstimate something like a .290 season with 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases next year. Other guys with .190-.200 ISOs this season include David Wright, Delmon Young and Torii Hunter, and though ISO doesn’t straight up equal home run power, this seems to make sense.

What would a similar guesstimation have to say about Rollins? Let’s take his career batting average, accrued over 6800 plate appearances, add it to his plus speed, and take his .163 career ISO to spit out something like .270, 12 home runs and 35+ stolen bases in a healthy year. That seems comparable to Tulo, even if you give the younger shortstop a nudge for being younger and having more power. Stolen bases are rare, and getting them from a middle infielder is a bonus.

The gorilla in the room is Rollins’ age. He’ll be 32 next year and aging middle infielders can find themselves in precipitous declines – just ask Derek Jeter how 2010 is going. Rollins’ ISO has declined, generally, over the past four years, and his speed scores, though still nice (7.0 this year), have fallen off his elite pace as well. Even though it’s tempting to say he’s been ‘oft-injured’ recently, it’s hard to discern a serious trend in his plate appearance totals. It’s definitely worth noting that his lowest two plate appearance totals will have come in the past three years, though.

Yes, Rollins is declining. Yup, he’s probably not elite. Yes, most people would take Tulowitzki over Rollins. But no, he’s not dead yet. And no, despite his injury-riddled 2010 and poor-luck-addled 2009, he’s not quite ‘crappy’ just yet. Taken at the right moment in 2011, he may just win a few fantasy leagues next year. Heck, his comeback may just win a couple fantasy leagues this year, provided his owners didn’t fall too far off the pace while he was out.

Sitting here on the empty floor of my new home in California, my future is cloudy. It seems like it’s time to make a run and living, and writing, in the best state in the union (apologies New York, but take away one city and you fall behind a bit). Why live if not while doing the thing you love in your favorite place? Oh, and it’s time to update the shortstop rankings since it’s been a while since we last visited that part of the diamond. That much I do know.

The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.383 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.334 wOBA, .360 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.378 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

It really looks like it’s time to do this. Derek Jeter is on pace to break his own personal record in ground balls, isn’t stealing bases at the clip that he manages in his good years, and isn’t putting up the other-worldly BABIPs of recent years. At his age, he’s always a candidate to slow down, and suddenly it seems like this is the year. If he isn’t going to have the plus batting average, his poor home run and stolen base totals look a lot less exciting.

As wrong as we might have been for pushing Jeter into the top tier for his excellent start, we were as right about keeping Jose Reyes near the top despite his poor first month. After an excellent June, Reyes looks like the man he used to be, and when he bags an extra 25 steals or so over Jeter, he’ll overcome any other advantages the elder New York shortstop has on him.

Another move at the top brings a healthy Rollins into the fold. He’s been a top-3 guy for some time, but his main fault is always there: he’s a bit of a batting average risk year-in and year-out. If the legs are iffy this year, he’s a risk to drop still.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.338 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.333 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.359 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.386 wOBA, .368 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.334 wOBA, .338 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Other than Jeter moving down, this tier is fairly uneventful. Andrus looks good, and with his speed might be able to maintain some of his strong BABIP, but he has almost negative power. All those grass guzzlers won’t turn into home runs any time soon, no matter how fast he is. Zobrist is looking like a Jeter-lite, or maybe a young Jeter, but the runs totals aren’t quite there yet. Drew is having a tough year, beset with injuries and some struggles against lefties. Not quite the peak year breakout that seemed like it could be on the way. We’ll keep him around for his upside a little longer, but not a whole lot longer.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.384 wOBA, .344 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.294 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.315 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.301 wOBA, .336 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.328 wOBA, .348 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.307 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
15. Ian Desmond, Washington (.291 wOBA, .319 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.344 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

It’s time to drop Jason Bartlett from the list. He’s losing time to Reid Brignac versus righties, and even if his BABIP regresses and gets his batting average up closer to .280, he’s just not showing any power and has three stolen bases on the year. Not much to like there.

We keep looking for a reason to move Alcides Escobar back onto the list, but at least Ian Desmond is playing every day and providing a tiny bit of power and speed for his owners. Miguel Tejada, on the other hand, might be seeing his long run of consecutive starts come to an end if upstart prospect Josh Bell can show his stuff at the major league level. Baltimore is, of course, looking to the future, and Tejada won’t be a part of that future.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts.

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Obviously, the biggest winner of 2009 was Troy Tulowitzki, who used a .344/.421/.622 second half to rise to the top third of the rankings. With only a 64% success rate on steals, and a speed score (6.6) that was far and away the best of his career, however, owners should probably not expect another 30/20 season next year and he may be overvalued despite his good power.

Sitting just below him is perhaps the biggest dropper of the year at the position, Jimmy Rollins. A career-low in BABIP (.253) suggests the batting average should bounce back. On the other hand, a six-year low in speed score (6.8) could be the harbinger of a decline in the 31-year-old. He still was successful on almost 80% of his stolen base attempts and still hits enough fly balls to muscle those home runs out. Rollins should be the value in that second tier next year.

The third tier is an interesting mix of the rejuvenated old (Derek Jeter) and the surprising young (Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett). Jeter has done this all before, but fantasy owners know that he’s not dependable when it comes to the counting stats you need in fantasy. At that point in the draft, it may be worth waiting a round or two and taking a shot that one of the young guys repeats his season. Personal opinion significantly determines how you organize this tier.

The next tier contains two men that disappointed this year, but given the fact that Alexei Ramirez is 29, it’s probably the slightly younger (26) Stephen Drew that should be picked ahead of him. Given Drew’s incredible oscillating OPS, next year may yet be a good year for him. Elvis Andrus is the upside play in the tier but he’ll cost the most, too.

The last tier is only for those determined not to reach for positional scarcity. It is not recommended for those in standard mixed leagues, even if Yunel Escobar shows some signs of developing mediocre power (fly balls increasing to 30% and HR/FB increasing to 10% in 2009).

Heading into the 2009 season, no fantasy position was as screwed up as shortstop. The first three spots were written in stone but if you looked at 10 different rankings, it is possible you might not have found even two lists which had one player the same in their rankings from four through 20.

And if we thought it was a mess heading into the year, it has been even more unpredictable two-thirds of the way through the 2009 season. I am going to use the preseason rankings of my friend Troy Patterson from Roto Savants to illustrate this point. Patterson does excellent work and readers may recognize his name from comments he has left on articles here previously. I am going to compare his rankings versus the current numbers for SS from the RotoTimes Player Rater (RTPR).

1. Hanley Ramirez (RTPR #1) – Ramirez probably went in the top three of your draft, if not first overall. He checks in today with a dollar value of $33.19 and in raw dollars is the third-best fantasy hitter.

2. Jose Reyes (RTPR #25) – Reyes had been one of the most consistent fantasy players the past four seasons but has had this year ruined by his leg injuries.

3. Jimmy Rollins (RTPR #14) – Rollins deserved to be the third shortstop off the board this year but a first-round pick was too high. Rollins delivered first-round value in his MVP season of 2007 but that season he set career bests in four fantasy categories and also had 41 SB.

4. Jhonny Peralta (RTPR #19) – Peralta hit 20+ HR in three of the past four seasons but this year is on pace to hit just 14. Also, he projects to finish with just 66 R, after scoring 104 last season and finishing with 80 or more the previous three seasons.

5. J.J. Hardy (RTPR #31) – Hardy was coming off back-to-back strong fantasy seasons in which he contributed in four categories. For healthy players, he belongs in the conversation for biggest fantasy busts of the year with his -$5.08 dollar value so far.

6. Stephen Drew (RTPR #20) – Owners enthralled by his strong second half in 2008 have been really disappointed by Drew’s 2009 season. After putting up a .927 OPS after the All-Star break last year, only a strong season at home this year has kept 2009 from being a disaster. Drew has a .225 AVG away from Chase Field and a .667 OPS in road games.

7. Troy Tulowitzki (RTPR #6) – Injuries ruined Tulowitzki’s 2008 season and fantasy owners were cautious with him heading into this year. Tulowitzki got off to a slow start but since June 7th he has a .320-15-36-40-10 line in his last 50 games.

8. Derek Jeter (RTPR #2) – Jeter’s days as a fantasy star seemed to be over but he has surprised everyone by once again being a five-category fantasy player. After posting 11 HR and 11 SB in 150 games last year, Jeter has 11 HR and 19 SB in 99 games this season.

9. Michael Young (RTPR #3) – Another player whose best fantasy days seemed to be behind him, Young has thrived with a move to 3B, although he retains his SS eligibility for this season. Young is on pace for his best year since 2005, when he finished 11th in the MVP race.

10. Rafael Furcal (RTPR #23) – A trendy pick to be the fourth SS off the board, Furcal has been healthy this season but not nearly as productive as he was last year before going down with a back injury. Furcal has been hot lately and will likely move up among SS before the year is out.

Six of the top 10 players on this list have current positional ratings of 14 or lower. Compare that to Patterson’s first base list, in which eight of the players in his preseason top 10 currently rank in the top 11 spots at the position.

So, which players not listed above currently rank in the top 10 SS? They are as follows:

4. Jason Bartlett (Patterson preseason #23) – In his third season as a full-time player, Barlett is far surpassing numbers he put up previously. He already has established career-bests in HR and RBI and is only 3 SB off his personal best.

5. Miguel Tejada (Patterson #12) – A .339 BABIP is certainly helping to rejuvenate Tejada. But he also benefits from a strong performance in RBIs. Updated ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 92 RBIs, which would be his best mark since 2006 and 29 more than he produced last season.

7. Marco Scutaro (Patterson not in top 25) – In his age 33 season, Scutaro will establish career highs in all five fantasy categories. Yes, some of that is due simply to playing time, but Scutaro did post 592 PA last season.

8. Ryan Theriot (Patterson #15) – Most people were not as bullish on Theriot as Patterson was. He had a .340 BABIP last year (with no power) and the Dutton and Bendix xBABIP model had him for a .291 mark in the category. No one was expecting Theriot to post a .336 BABIP this season.

9. Yunel Escobar (Patterson #18) – It seems like just yesterday that pundits were referring to Escobar as a “Yutility infielder” and now he is a solid starter in a 12-team mixed league.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera (Patterson not in top 25) – Cabrera was draft worthy coming into the season due to his eligibility at both 2B and SS. A .359 BABIP has made him a starter in most leagues, although he has also contributed more SB than anyone expected.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a Kosuke Fukudome for Justin Upton trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jose Guillen – Much like Raul Ibanez, Guillen goes through streaks where he just crushes the ball. In 2008 he had a 31-game stretch where he batted .369 with 8 HR and 29 RBIs. In 2007 he had a 53-game stretch where he batted .336 with 10 HR and 42 RBIs. He was hurt in 2006 but in 2005 he had a 30-game stretch where he batted .327 with 8 HR and 21 RBIs. So what, you may be thinking, you can find lots of guys with streaks like that if you cherry pick the end points. Well, how many of those guys are likely to be on the waiver wire or not valued highly by their current owners? Guillen spent a couple of weeks on the disabled list but now looks like he’s going on one of those hot spells. Get him and enjoy a month of great production at very little cost to you.

Cliff Lee – Okay, with a 1-4 record and an ERA approaching four, Lee is not going to win the Cy Young Award this year. But his peripherals show a pitcher who should be solid from here on out. Lee has a 2.80 K/BB ratio, his HR/9 is at a nice 0.69 percent and the 90.9 he is averaging on his fastball is a career best. Lee is being hurt by a .364 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .304 and he has never had a mark over .315 in his career.

Kendry Morales – After failing to win a full-time job the past three seasons, Morales fell into the “Overrated Cuban Star” category. But with little competition for the first base job, Morales figures to get 500 or more at-bats this season. And the last two years at Triple-A, he has a .341 batting average. He is probably not a threat to hit 30 HR, but a guy who can hit .315 with 20-25 HR in your corner infield slot is not a bad thing to have.

Rich Harden – The usual MO with Harden is he’s great when he’s healthy but you have no idea how long he’ll be able to hold it together. This year he’s been (knock on Kerry Wood) healthy, but the results have been less than stellar, with two of his five starts being pretty awful. Right now he is being really hurt by walks and the long ball. Harden always walks his fair share of batters but the HR rate is likely to go down. He has a lifetime HR/9 of 0.73 and only once has he posted a rate over 1, with his 1.05 mark in seven games in 2007. Right now, Harden’s HR/9 sits at 1.82 after five starts. If you need to make up ground in pitching, this is a high-risk, high-reward gamble to consider.

Troy Tulowitzki – A 4-for-39 stretch is really dragging down Tulowitzki’s overall numbers at this point. But I like the .200 ISO and I just cannot see the combination of a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and a .245 BABIP lasting for much longer.

Trade

Hunter Pence – If you were going to describe Pence, how would you do it? Is he an average hitter or a HR guy or a SB threat? Perhaps he contributes in every category but does he really help you in any of them? His batted ball profile (12.8% LD, 60.3% GB, 26.9% FB) suggests average hitter, but he has a .300 AVG with a .319 BABIP. It is hard to imagine the average staying that high going forward. It looks like 2008 is the high end of what to expect from Pence, and that is only if he can keep his HR/FB ratio in double digits, something no one else of the 18 players with a GB rate over 50 percent was able to accomplish last year.

James Shields – The strikeouts are down, the walks are up, the home runs allowed are up and yet somehow Shields’ ERA is almost identical to where it was a year ago. It is funny what a .245 BABIP and an 81.7 percent strand rate can do for a fellow. Sell high before the hits start falling in against him.

Magglio Ordonez – The batting average will probably rebound some but the power is gone. He hit two home runs in April, which was the eighth-straight month in which he failed to hit more than five homers. See if you can find someone who remembers 2007-vintage Ordonez and views him as a buy-low candidate.

Jason Marquis – It was hard to imagine a worse fit than Marquis pitching in Colorado. He had a lifetime 1.42 WHIP and a 1.51 K/BB ratio. So of course right now he is sitting at 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA, a 1.42 K/BB and a 1.19 WHIP. It is going to be hard to find someone who wants to trade for him, but at the very least ask around and see if you can find a taker.

Jeff Francoeur – All we hear these days is how newspapers are in trouble. Papers are either shutting down or are on life support. Even the venerable Boston Globe is on shaky ground. But you never hear anything about the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And that is because they write at least one glowing article on Francoeur per week. He has reworked his swing and he is not striking out. This is a player that it seems people are actively rooting for to do well. Yet his average is nothing to get excited about and he is not hitting for great power. And it is debatable if he is going to maintain a K% less than half of his career average going forward.

*****

We are discussing having either a mail bag or a live chat to answer trade questions. So, instead of posting trade proposals and asking for feedback, please respond as to which of the two formats you would prefer seeing. A mail bag is easier on our end and is something we could get going sooner. A live chat offers a much quicker response but will require the RotoGraphs authors to coordinate our schedules, which may not match yours.

As always, comments on the individual players listed here are welcome and encouraged.