Archive for Troy Tulowitzki

On Friday, Dave considered Troy Tulowitzki’s trade value in the real world, and today I want to consider his trade value in the fantasy world. As Dave noted, Tulo, who is off to a slow start, still has fairly rosy projections and is a good bet to bounce back. Specifically, his home run per fly ball rate is basically a third of his career rate, and his a rough strikeout and walk rates are too far out of line with his norm to continue.

He probably has at least 15 home runs left in his bat this year, if not 20. And while he may end up with the worst strikeout and walk rates of his career, it’s unlikely they’ll end up being significantly worse than they’ve ever been. You can expect him to be much more helpful in average and/or OBP going forward.

Now that we’ve established Tulo isn’t a dog (tough, I know), what’s his trade value? Read the rest of this entry »

I am a chronic off-season Mets rosterbater. Many of my potential Mets trade Tweets are far from rational. Some have included proposals for Troy Tulowitzki, which then leads to trading Daniel Murphy in order to open second base for a long-term competition between Wilmer Flores and Dilson Herrera.

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*Updated 10/23/2014 with Position Tiers ($5.00 USD).

The 2015 Steamer projections are up on FanGraphs! “Steamer” uses playing time projections from our depth charts, but right now there are important players (Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester for examples) missing actual projected playing time. I therefore went into mensch-mode and manually updated Plate Appearance and Innings Pitched projections – very manually, but at least somewhat rational. What I did for these players was go into their “Steamer 600” projections and took their HR, R, RBI and SB per Plate Appearance projected rates (W, SV, SO per Inning Pitched for pitchers) and outputted associated counting stats connected to the quantity of Plate Appearances/Innings Pitched.

*To see which players I manipulated, go into the “P” and “H” tabs in the below embedded file: click on the “…” tab to the left of the current depicted tab. I highlighted all names and counting stats per plate appearance or innings pitched that I edited in Yellow so that I can associate some accountability with the end-rankings. I edited a few catchers’ PA totals even though Steamer already had totals for them (Lucroy, Mesoraco, etc.). I also edited Troy Tulowitzki‘s and Carlos Gonzalez’s PA totals, because…well, you know. I could spend all month editing the PA totals, but I’m not that much of a mensch.

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Let’s jump into some fantasy baseball and existential questions from the readers this week. Why should you ask me questions and take my advice? You absolutely shouldn’t; however, I did draft Troy Tulowitzki this year. Just go admire Tulo’s player card right now. We are not worthy. Hopefully the gods of baseball health acquiesce and keep this guy on the field so he can set the all-time WAR record or something insane.

Harry from San Francisco asks, “What happened to Will Venable?  Last year he was a 20/20 guy with a near .800 OPS.  This year, he’s failed to contribute even a single SB or HR to my team.  Do I give up?”

It’s early, obviously, but yes, I’d probably give up on Venable. He’s 31, he’s not getting the bat to the ball enough, the power is missing in action, and it’s not like he’s some horrendous victim of the BABIP gods right now. Also, unless you are in an NL only league, you should be able to upgrade on Venable even if he does get back to where he was last year (.268/.312/.484, 22 dingers, 22 SB). That near-30 percent strikeout rate and .060 ISO would send me running for the hills right now.

Michael from Gloucester, MA asks, “Is Chris Colabello a witch?”

To the best of my knowledge, Colabello is a living, breathing human being with no relation to witches. If nothing else, he’s a mediocre baseball player who I assume you are partial to because he went to college in Worcester which has some of the same letters as Gloucester. Also, if this is the same Michael from Gloucester who I once worked with for a number of very painful years, it’s time for you to get back to our shared cubicle. I miss you. We can fight the post-traumatic stress together by never leaving.

Also, Colabello is probably thinking that if he’s a mediocre baseball player according to this writer, well, this writer is a 20-grade talent. To which I say…I have no comeback there.

Turkelton from Boston, MA and the hit television show Scrubs asks the existentialist, “I’m in a 16-team, points based, head-to-head league. David Wright is currently my starting third baseman. I’m worried that he is going to eventually hit the shelf, so I’d like to ensure that I have a solid backup on the roster. The problem is that third base seems particularly shallow this season. Right now, I’m rostering Mike Olt who has third base eligibility (and a serious prospect pedigree). Olt offers some power upside, but he’s currently hitting a crisp .162/.237/.353. Here are some other options on the waiver wire: your namesake Mark Reynolds, Cody Asche, Lonnie Chisenhall, David Freese (currently on the DL), Donnie Murphy, etc. Should I hold on to Olt and trust his one-time prospect pedigree?”

My shoulder is still messed up from a recent car accident and I have no bat-to-ball skills. Wait, I’m getting my Mark Reynoldses confused here. Just stay away from anyone named Mark Reynolds. Freese gets hurt all the time, Olt and Chisenhall probably don’t play enough, and I honestly don’t even know what in the world Donnie Murphy is. Is he related to Donnie Baseball?

If the Cubs believed in Olt, wouldn’t they have just turned the position over to him for all 162 this year? What do the Cubs have to lose besides another century’s worth of baseball games? Chisenhall would be more deserving of a gamble than Olt, and Asche is probably your best bet because who else are the Phillies going to put there? The Phillies aren’t actually that bad for me. I’d take Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, A.J. Burnett, and a healthy Cole Hamels any day of the week. Okay, the Phillis probably are that bad despite those guys.

Richard from Alameda, CA asks, “Does good pitching beat good hitting?”

Good pitching beats good hitting and good hitting beats good pitching. As John Kenneth Galbraith said, “Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it’s just the opposite.” That written, even a great hitter doesn’t get on base 60 percent of the time. Thus, pitching generally beats hitting whether it’s good, bad, ugly, or indifferent. If I were a GM of something other than a fantasy baseball team, I’d draft position players over pitchers with high picks in most cases because of the high attrition rate of pitching prospects. For instance, I think the Astros blew it drafting Mark Appel last year. I watched Appel pitch in person several times at Stanford, and I never walked away thinking of him as some kind of future ace the way people probably did when they saw Stephen Strasburg dominate in college.

John from Petaluma, CA asks, “Should I regret not playing fantasy baseball this year for the first time ever, really?”

If you have to ask, you probably aren’t missing out too much. Like, if there was anything for you to regret, you’d be feeling it in the deepest recesses of your soul. There are a lot of things in my life that I regret having done or not done. That reminds me of the Taoist proverb, “When nothing is done, nothing is left undone.” I kind of understand that, but I couldn’t explain it for the life of me. I guess it means if you do nothing, there’s nothing…yeah, I don’t know. It’s all about the do-do. Intellectually understanding things isn’t that important, anyway, unless you can somehow apply it towards like right living.

Anyway, I quit baseball during my senior year of high school. I regret that decision. I’d probably be in the big leagues right now if I had kept playing. Okay, I definitely wouldn’t be in the big leagues, but the point here is that regret is something you know you are experiencing, not something you have to question. Fantasy baseball might not be for you anymore and that’s okay. It doesn’t matter either way.

Okay, we’ll leave it there for this week. If you have any fantasy questions you’d like answered in a future mailbag—if there is one—you can leave a comment or tweet at me. In the meantime, I’d strongly advise the acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki. He’ll improve your fantasy team and, if you’re like me, your extremely superficial, shallow, and sometimes low self-esteem.

When it comes to the Colorado Rockies, the standard practice in fantasy baseball is to draft the hitters and avoid the pitchers. And it is as true today as it was back in 1993 when the organization played its very first game as an MLB franchise. We’ve already covered the team’s outfield and rotation, so it’s time to discuss the infield now. For the most part, you’ll want to give it a look when mapping out your draft strategy, however, it might not be the offensive powerhouse you were hoping for. Read the rest of this entry »

If you need to see the definition of LVP, then please check out Eno’s article where he describes the fantasy awards that we’re doling out here. You can also just accept that it stands for Least Valuable Player and stay with me right here. It’s pretty self-explanatory, right? And with the title of the piece, obviously you know who won. But rather than just declare Troy Tulowitzki as the guy who screwed fantasy owners over the most and walk away with the shortest article in RotoGraphs history, let’s look into it a little further. Read the rest of this entry »

Between the rash of injuries and the flurry of trades we’re seeing right now, your league’s waiver wire should be a hotbed of action. It may or may not be depending on how many owners in your league have given up and turned their attention to the upcoming fantasy football season, but if you’re in a heated competition with just the two months remaining on the baseball season, then you should be keeping up to date with any player that is starting to sniff some regular playing time and can contribute to your cause. Here are two that may help you out…

Casper Wells, SEA  |OF|  Ownership:  ESPN – 14.5%  Yahoo – 5.0%

In the wake of the Ichiro Suzuki trade and the demotion of Justin Smoak, the Mariners appear to be going with Wells and Carlos Peguero in the corner outfield spots with recent call-up Mike Carp likely taking over first base duties.  All three are in line to receive major increases in playing time, but Wells, seems to be the most seasoned of the three and likely the one to play with the most consistency.  Sure, people will talk about Peguero’s power potential, but I look at his strikeouts and see a guy who could do more harm than good to your team.  Carp has some promise, but given the shoulder concerns and the weak numbers he showed in Triple-A this season, Wells might just be the safer bet here for some added power.

There are definitely some flaws in Wells’ game right now between the low contact rates and the excessively high SwStr%, but he’s never had a full-time job before and a lot of his impatience at the plate could be him trying to do too much because he feels like he has a limited number of at-bats to prove his worth.  That’s likely true to some extent, but now, in a situation like this where the Mariners are folding up their tents for the season, there’s little or no reason for him to put excessive pressure on himself.  It’s not that he can just coast the rest of the way, but he can certainly take some time to relax at the plate and get back to the basics.  With ISO numbers so strong at every level, there’s no question that the power is for real.  With a full-time job for two months and little or no pressure, Wells finally has the opportunity to blossom and show what he can do.

Josh Rutledge, COL  |SS|  Ownership:  ESPN – 13.4%  Yahoo – 8.0%

With so much still up in the air regarding Troy Tulowitzki’s return, Rutledge is looking like a solid pick-up if you need help in your middle infield.  Tulo insists that he will be back at some point in August, but as it stands right now, he hasn’t even picked up a bat yet.  Rutledge has filled in admirably recently and over a quick 10-game span, has his .368 with six runs scored, one home run, six RBI and three stolen bases.  His .382 BABIP is pretty inflated, but in looking at his recent minor league totals, he’s routinely posted high BABIP totals.  If he can continue to make strong contact and keep the ball in play like this, the hits should continue to fall.  True the sample size is small, but we’re also now dealing with a two month long season not six.  Short-term help can be quite beneficial, especially if the guy can get on-base regularly and can kick in with some speed.

But there’s also the chance that Rutledge sticks even when Tulo makes it back, so long as he’s playing well.  It’s not like Jordan Pacheco is tearing it up at the plate and the Rockies have made the rest of the league well aware that Marco Scutaro is available.  If Scutaro goes, then Rutledge can slide over to the keystone once Tulo returns or, if he doesn’t, then perhaps he gets a chance to play some third.  He’s an interesting choice for the short term and could easily pan out to be a full-time guy over the next two months.

One of the biggest criticisms of saber-enthusiasts is their tendency to ignore the human element of the game.  Their breakdown and analysis of the game is all about the numbers, statistical trends, replacement values, etc.  These aren’t robots here on the field playing the game, yet often during a study of it, they are, in a way, treated as such.  And for me, I have to agree with the critics.  You simply can’t ignore the human element.  It must be accounted for in some way.  Why?  Because humans are inherently stupid and common sense is the least common thing in this world. Read the rest of this entry »

Each year, there’s always one pick in the draft that always seems to cause the biggest stir amongst the fantasy community and leads to the greatest number of emails seeking added opinions.  It used to be closer to the tail end of the first round when an owner was deciding between whichever offensive treat was left or the number one overall starting pitcher.  This year, I’ve received a number of emails from people with the 4th pick.  People with the 8th and 9th picks are rolling their eyes right now, but truly, the 4th pick can cause quite the conundrum.

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Continuing on last week’s theme, we turn our attention today to the National League fantasy All-Stars.  As a reminder, I’m basing this on the past calendar year’s performance under the FanGraphs Points scoring system.   The $ values shown are the player’s average cost on ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues.

Catcher:  Brian McCann (894 pts, .377 wOBA, $30)
Alternates: Buster Posey (753 pts, .368 wOBA, $31) and Carlos Ruiz  (595 pts, .350 wOBA, $5)

Brian McCann is such a stud.  He’s been the best fantasy catcher in the National League for years, and yet somehow I think he still is a bit underrated.  Speaking of underrated, Carlos Ruiz has been a monster over the past year, even if he doesn’t play as often as some of the big guns.  I have him in a 20-team league and can’t find anyone who wants him!

Read the rest of this entry »