Archive for too early

A month ago, I compared “name-brand” and “generic-brand” players using blind résumés, an exercise we’ve reiterated across several authors and years at RotoGraphs. A few years ago, you’d never find me in a mock draft, let alone several in one preseason. (More a matter of blocking out three hours on a whim, but also I probably (very foolishly) thought I didn’t need to partake in such trivialities.)

I’m super, super into the whole slow draft mock thing, though; I’ve completed a few this preseason, and I think they have already helped me understand the kinds of market inefficiencies (i.e., differences between perceived and actual values) that will arise on draft day. One of the easiest ways to identify said inefficiencies is to compare similarly skilled players, then assess their other pros and cons — the intangibles, if you will, such as health and age — to determine who’s the better value.

Here are a couple more pairings:

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Fantasy owners participate in mock drafts to practice for their actual league drafts. Without the internet, neither mock drafts nor average draft position (ADP) data would be possible or available to us. The union of the two allow owners to understand approximately when they can expect players they plan to target and devise an appropriate plan of action.

What ensues when you draft for the next baseball season before the current season has ended and without ADP data and having not refined/run your 2018 projections yet? Chaos, namely. For the second year, the Honourable Justin Mason organized the Too-Early (#2early) mock drafts for me and a few dozen other analysts, the final ADP “data” (in air quotes, because a sample size of four drafts is not particularly strong data, and, as aforementioned, it is way too early to be mock-drafting) for which can be found here.

I drafted out of the 11th spot (of 15) in draft #4. I made a concerted effort to draft a good team, but I also deliberately avoided certain players just to see where other owners would draft them. (Had I drafted these players for my team, I would have a weaker understanding of how other owners valued them.) The lack of ADP data made it incredibly difficult to implement this plan. In a nutshell, my plan consisted of drafting the best player with a track record still available on the draft board (mind-blowing, I know), with a strong preference for hitting. There’s an objective basis to this that, rather than trying to explain, I’ll let reveal and define itself as I go. This plan served me admirably in all rounds of the draft.

Here’s my team, by round. “Rk” indicates a player’s draft rank within his assigned position. Columns labeled “All” and “Pos” depict players’ end-of-season values overall and by position, respectively, each of the last four years. These ranks come courtesy of Rudy Gamble, who concocts them for Razzball. If you’re concerned that these might somehow be inferior to ESPN’s Player Rater, know that Rudy won this year’s Tout Wars Mixed by a landslide, so I thoroughly trust his process.

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A little while ago, a bunch of industry dudes participated in a way-too-early slow mock draft aptly dubbed the Too Early (#2Early) Mock. On Tuesday, I dissected the team I drafted with some limited analysis for each pick. Some people find this helpful, entertaining, what-have-you. Personally — and while a particular owner’s strategy is certainly interesting to ponder — I prefer a more macro characterization of the draft.

There are several ways to approach something like this, the most prominent of which, in my mind, being to comb through each round or to comb through each position. I’ll take the latter route here, identifying a “reach” and a “steal” (or plural) at each position.

I rely heavily on my own projections and rankings come draft day. Alas, I must apply a caveat to this analysis: these reaches and steals are more of, uh, feelings. Like, it feels too late or it feels like a great price. I hope I can support some of these feelings with evidence. I typically hate relying on feelings, given I’m all about doing away with emotion, biases, and impaired thought processes to exploit market inefficiencies. But, hey. Let’s give this a shot.

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I’ll lead with a series of questions: What’s the preferred way to analyze a mock draft? Would you rather read about the writer’s breakdown for his or her specific draft results? Or breakdowns by position? Of each owner’s team?

I plan to take the former-most approach here in regard to the Too Early (#2Early) Mock Draft, as curated by Justin Mason and graciously hosted by Couch Managers. A 15-team slow draft that began as soon as the season ended, I did not hesitate to vocalize my discomfort in drafting, even in the spirit of mockery, with absolutely zero planning.

Alas, that’s the fun of the Too Early mock (or so David Wiers tried to convince me): just wing it. Or see what happens.

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