Too-Early Mock Draft On-Time Review

Fantasy owners participate in mock drafts to practice for their actual league drafts. Without the internet, neither mock drafts nor average draft position (ADP) data would be possible or available to us. The union of the two allow owners to understand approximately when they can expect players they plan to target and devise an appropriate plan of action.

What ensues when you draft for the next baseball season before the current season has ended and without ADP data and having not refined/run your 2018 projections yet? Chaos, namely. For the second year, the Honourable Justin Mason organized the Too-Early (#2early) mock drafts for me and a few dozen other analysts, the final ADP “data” (in air quotes, because a sample size of four drafts is not particularly strong data, and, as aforementioned, it is way too early to be mock-drafting) for which can be found here.

I drafted out of the 11th spot (of 15) in draft #4. I made a concerted effort to draft a good team, but I also deliberately avoided certain players just to see where other owners would draft them. (Had I drafted these players for my team, I would have a weaker understanding of how other owners valued them.) The lack of ADP data made it incredibly difficult to implement this plan. In a nutshell, my plan consisted of drafting the best player with a track record still available on the draft board (mind-blowing, I know), with a strong preference for hitting. There’s an objective basis to this that, rather than trying to explain, I’ll let reveal and define itself as I go. This plan served me admirably in all rounds of the draft.

Here’s my team, by round. “Rk” indicates a player’s draft rank within his assigned position. Columns labeled “All” and “Pos” depict players’ end-of-season values overall and by position, respectively, each of the last four years. These ranks come courtesy of Rudy Gamble, who concocts them for Razzball. If you’re concerned that these might somehow be inferior to ESPN’s Player Rater, know that Rudy won this year’s Tout Wars Mixed by a landslide, so I thoroughly trust his process.

1.11. Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP
As soon as I saw the draft randomly assigned me to the 11th pick, I was almost certain I’d end up with Kershaw. Alas. There’s not much controversy to this pick unless you’re among the camp that he’s an injury risk after logging barely 320 innings the last two years. It’s a legitimate concern, but Kershaw finished no worse than 33rd overall on limited time. Carlos Correa, a near-consensus first-round pick in the mock drafts, has never finished better than 70th since his debut. Kershaw could play half a season and be a top-50 pick, which is a testament to how unbelievably good at baseball he is. (Max Scherzer and Chris Sale are too-early first-rounders; this might be the first season in quite some time that has more than two starting pitchers.)

Dee Gordon (2.16), while “early,” is still good value here. Jose Ramirez (2.18) is my homeboy, but he will hit half as many home runs in 2018. Count on it. Still, he has one of the highest floors in the game, so there’s nothing wrong with picking him this early, either.

2.20. Josh Donaldson, TOR 3B
It’s not much of a discount, but Donaldson hasn’t been drafted lower than 18th overall since 2014. He played out of his mind when not injured, and his high floor makes this pick perfectly adequate and, frankly, not very surprising.

Cody Bellinger (2.25), Aaron Judge (2.28), Gary Sanchez (2.30) — have fun with your shiny new toys, folks. Also, Jonathan Schoop at 4.34 — what?

3.41. Edwin Encarnacion, CLE 1B
From 2012 (the year of his breakout) onward, Encarnacion’s overall end-of-season rank: 12th, 14th, 39th, 16th, 14th, 39th. At 41st overall, I theoretically bought Encarnacion at his floor — something very difficult to do in the first three rounds. For context, Encarnacion hasn’t been drafted outside the first two rounds since breaking out, and he didn’t go earlier than 31st in any of the four mocks. This could be a blip on the radar, but with so many shiny new toys — Judge (23rd on average), Bellinger (26th), Rhys Hoskins (38th) — I will gladly scoop up Encarnacion in the third.

I indirectly ripped on Hoskins (3.42) just now, but I think he has the best chance to fulfill first-round upside than any other soon-to-be-sophomore. I would have taken him instead of Encarnacion, but I wanted to see how long he’d last. One more pick, turns out.

4.50. Brian Dozier, MIN 2B
Since his breakout in 2014, Dozier hasn’t finished worse than 47th overall. Sound familiar? I eagerly grabbed Dozier, who went 44th overall on average in these mocks, at 50th. Again, I (theoretically) bought another stud at his floor. And the Twins are good now, too.

Nelson Cruz (4.52) might be the best pick of the entire draft. Like Hoskins, I wanted to see how long he’d fall. In case you didn’t know, you do now: Cruz has four straight top-20 finishes. You can fade him because of his age, but you’re doing so at your peril: he’s the closest thing we have to a contemporary David Ortiz.

5.71. Eduardo Nunez, FA 3B
I don’t know where Nunez ends up, but the odds of him ending up on a team that actually needs him and won’t relegate him to the outfield where he plays pathetic defense are pretty good. He missed a few weeks and didn’t steal as often, but the low-strikeout approach and his guaranteed speed makes him a lock for 25 steals and a .280-plus average. And he’ll flirt with double-digit power, too. I may have overpaid for him, but with speed at a premium and my team in desperate need for it, I pulled the trigger. J.T. Realmuto, Tommy Pham, James Paxton and a slew of other juicy names flew off the board right after this, making for a strong case of buyer’s remorse. There’s an interesting combination of amazing and awful values in the 5th through 7th rounds. (P.S. Despite his label as 3B, I’m pretty sure I had assigned Nunez to shortstop, boosting his value a bit.)

Robbie Ray (5.70) will fall to earth; this, 70th, seems about right, although his true talent level suggests he might finish a little lower than this. Should be fine, though. This is the lowest Yoenis Cespedes (5.72) has been drafted since his stateside debut. Also: PHAM!

6.80. Lorenzo Cain, FA OF
I’ve never owned Cain, so this was foreign soil for me. Relative to the other mocks, it was a slight reach — he went 85th on a verage and as late as 107th — but he’s a five-category guy with second-round upside. It didn’t feel very sexy — again, there’s a lot of strong value right around here (but also a lot of traps) — but it offered me balance for a third consecutive pick.

Ton of picks here I love: Alex Bregman (6.81), James Paxton (6.83), Domingo Santana (6.84), Alex Wood (6.90), Mike Moustakas (7.91). Santana is a poor man’s Justin Upton (3.38); I’ll get around to this sometime this offseason

7.101. Aaron Nola, PHI SP
[heart emoji] Cat’s out of the bag now. He, Paxton and Ray, all drafted outside the top-40 starting pitchers last year, are pretty much locked into 2018’s top-25. I don’t think 2018’s bulls will be quite as obvious as these three, but there are a couple of late-round plays I really like (to be revealed shortly).

For those of you who like shiny new toys: Rafael Devers (7.103), Ronald Acuna (7.105), Yoan Moncada (8.106). I won’t touch these with a 10-foot pole. I’m also willing to say now that Luke Weaver at 107th overall will be a huge mistake.

8.110. Sonny Gray, NYY SP
I was pretty early on Gray; he averaged 124th in the mocks. Just remember two things: he was drafted as a top-20 starter in 2015 and 2016, and he has a career 3.04 ERA when subtracting his injury-plagued 2016 campaign.

Early bold prediction: Matt Olson (8.113) will out-earn Bellinger (2.25).

9.131. Adam Duvall, CIN OF
I knew me drafting Duvall here would be “too early;” he went two to three rounds later in each of the other three mocks. But Duvall has finished 68th and 82nd the last two years, well inside the first six rounds. “There’s too much power,” and I can’t tell if Duvall serves to underscore that point or exists in spite of it. He’ll be on my shortlist of underpriced, premium power targets in March.

Another shiny new toy: Ozzie Albies (10.139).

10.140. David Price, BOS SP
Uhhh… what? Too-Early owners drafted Price almost equivalently to Jon Gray. Something about that seems wrong. Is this an injury thing again? You know how many pitchers get injured every year? I… look, this is silly. You can fade Price in 2017, but I’m under the impression you’ll regret it.

Lance McCullers‘ (10.145) disabled list stint has created a nice buying opportunity for a guy who looked like every bit as much of a breakout as Luis Severino (3.37).

11.161. Brett Gardner, NYY OF
Yawn: something about Garnder’s steady four-point-five-category production is boring. Yawn: me telling you I’m drafting him at his floor is boring. He has finished better than this slot in four of the last five years, three of those being 105th or better. I haven’t quite cornered the power-speed market with Dozier, Nunez, Cain and Gardner, but I’m close.

12.170. Raisel Iglesias, CIN RP
Just wanted to grab a reliable reliever before I missed my chance to anchor my bullpen.

Jay Bruce (12.179): boring but solid. Great ROI opportunity here. Cole Hamels (13.186): fade. HARD.

13.191. Logan Morrison, TBR 1B
My first misstep: in a panic, I went with LoMo… who went outside the top-300 in the other three mocks. He’s a wild card, but with a nearly top-100 finish in 2017 and legitimate hard-hit (Hard%) and fly ball (FB%) gains, he’s a decent bet to repeat to some degree. Maybe he’s not a 22.5% HR/FB guy, but 17% would do — that’s nearly 30 homers. Besides, what makes his gains any different from Travis Shaw‘s or Justin Smoak’s? (Answer: They’re actually gains. His batted ball profile actually changed, whereas those of the latter two really didn’t.)

14.200. Yadier Molina, STL C
Speaking of yawns… Yadier is just about the last full-time catcher you can get, so I’ll take his bulk of very decent plate appearances. After a couple of down years, he’s back to being a top-10 catcher. It’d be unwise to expect double-digit blasts again, but seven home runs and a .275 average in full time should still help him break even. Pray, at 35, he stays, healthy.

15.221. Lance Lynn, STL SP
Here’s another of my early contenders for boring sleeper. I admit I have underrated Lynn his entire career. It was to easy to fade Lynn after he missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2017 as good as always, posting a 3.43 ERA, right in line with his 3.38 career ERA. That’s right: a 3.38 ERA in nearly 1,000 career innings. He likely fell this far because of subpar peripherals. I’m willing to take a chance and chalk it up to figuring things out again post-surgery. Ignoring 2016, he has never finished outside the top 150 overall. At this point in the draft, there are a dozen other pitchers drafted before Lynn who I would have forgone for Lynn.

16.230. Arodys Vizcaino, ATL RP

Jonathan Villar (17.242) has fallen from grace, and the Brewers just re-signed Eric Sogard. Don’t forget Villar’s name, though. The starting lineup in April is never the same one in October — for better or for worse.

17.251. Melky Cabrera, CHW OF
Cabrera went 299th or later in the other three mocks (and as late as the last round in one of them). He hasn’t finished outside the top-140 since his injury-shortened 2013 campaign. (Again, argue with his end-of-season ranks if you’d like, but Rudy and the Razzball team know what they’re doing.) Evidently, Cabrera’s infinitely more boring than Gardner. The Melk Man doesn’t steal anymore, but double-digit power, a high batting average and 600-plus PAs make him a very underrated pick. In fact, except for me, the Too-Early draftees all but disregarded him.

(Shoutout to Austin Barnes (17.255) for being treated with respect)

18.260. Brandon Phillips, FA 2B
Am I a broken record? For the third-straight year, Phillips posted double-digit home runs and stolen bases and at least a .285 batting average. Despite his low walk rate (BB%), he’s still a league-average on-base percentage (OBP) guy, so there’s no excuse to let him drop to the last round of each of the other three mocks. His finishes the last three years, chronologically: 63rd, 133rd, 161st. I may have the oldest, most boring team, and it may not have the most upside — not the kind of crazy upside you dream on in the later rounds — but I have still extracted plenty of value.

19.281. Charlie Morton, HOU SP
It’s so easy to see Morton (238th overall on average) and think of the supremely mediocre pitcher who took the mound every five days in Pittsburgh. If this is the case, you aren’t paying attention. He’s a strikeout machine now, thanks to newfound velocity; coupled with his elite ground ball rate (GB%), he’s primed for a sustained breakout at the quintessential breakout age of 34. This pick needs no defense — I could probably find two, maybe three dozen other pitchers I would’ve drafted after Morton.

20.290. Mark Trumbo, BAL OF
Autodrafted. Oops. (Although it could’ve been a lot worse.)

Very mad that I autodrafted here, though; planned to take a chance on Francisco Mejia’s (21.307) plus (plus-plus?) hit tool. Then I would have taken a speedy outfielder cut from the same cloth as Mallex Smith, Delino DeShields Jr. and the like.

21.311. Francisco Cervelli, PIT C

22.320. Cam Bedrosian, LAA SP

I won’t be surprised if Marco Estrada (22.324) bounces back. We quit on guys after one bad year way too often.

23.341. Nathan Karns, KCR SP
He teased us for 45 innings this year with a 12.5% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and a coin-flip ground ball rate. It’s slim pickins, so I’ll take the chance. (He’s my first bench starter anyway.) He went undrafted in the other three mocks.

24.350. Santiago Casilla, OAK RP

25.371. Curtis Granderson, FA OF
Granderson hasn’t finished outside the top-250 in more than a decade (exept when he missed more than half of 2013 due to injury). So, sure, he’s old; that’s a prerequisite for being on my team anyway. But wherever he goes, he should perform at least adequately enough to turn a profit, especially this late in a draft.

26.380. Ivan Nova, PIT SP
I’m honsetly a little unsure of where all of Nova’s supporters went. I was never big on the guy, even after his turnaround the last couple of years. But he’s been roughly a top-60 starter and top-200 player the last two years thanks to basically league-average everything. It’s evident that analysts don’t find the microscopic walk rate (BB%) quite as sexy without results to match, and he likely won’t ever any kind of profound step toward stardom. But relative to the literal dart throws being drafted in the last round, I could do far worse. Furthermore, there were guys like Matt Shoemaker and