Archive for Shane Victorino

Jacoby Ellsbury takes his shiny new ring and shiny new contract to don what are ostensibly shiny new pinstripes, leaving the Boston Red Sox with a differently named center fielder on opening day for the first time since Coco Crisp played there in 2007. But the old out/new in truism certainly applies here as Ellsbury leaving creates new opportunities for fantasy baseball enthusiasts at a position I’m not finding particularly deep in 2014. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s a give a big round of applause to the idiots at the IOC, shall we? The need to draw more attention and revenue to the Olympics led these buffoons to killing the Games’ integrity by removing the amateur status requirements to participate so they could draw in more professional and marketable athletes. While that may have been fine and dandy for the basketball world, as the NBA season ends in June and the summer Olympics don’t start up until late July, it was an epic fail for baseball as players were asked to leave their MLB teams in the middle of the season to go and compete. MLB complied and allowed players to play, but there were no marquee names headed for the games and in the 2004, the United States didn’t even field a team. Read the rest of this entry »

Still pending the turn-and-cough from the team trainer, the Boston Red Sox have apparently come to a handshake agreement with Shane Victorino on a three year, $39 million dollar contract. The dollar figure is irrelevant to fantasy mavens, but the scenery is. Though typically more valuable in real baseball than fantasy, Victorino has certainly been solid contributor over a half dozen seasons in the major leagues, and it’s worth wondering if we can expect a bounce back season, if only in the short-term.

But let’s start with what we know. In fantasy circles, Victorino was handy because he was good for 30-plus steals, he got on base, scored runs, and wasn’t a black hole in the power department either. In standard leagues, you wanted Victorino as a second or third outfielder. He was a complementary piece, not a put-your-team-on-his-back kind of bat. But last season proved to be a disappointment for fantasy owners.

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In an effort to land a quality right-handed bat for the middle of their lineup and boost the overall production from their outfield, the San Francisco Giants finalized a deal on Tuesday that sent perennial fourth outfielder Nate Schierholtz and prospects Tommy Joseph and Seth Rosin to the Philadelphia Phillies for Hunter Pence and cash considerations.  From a reality standpoint, the trade was a no-brainer for the Giants.  They might sacrifice a touch of defense in right field going from the Schierholtz/Gregor Blanco platoon to Pence, but offensively speaking, the upgrade is huge, not just at the position, but for what it does to the middle of the Giants’ order.  But this is fantasy we’re talking about here, so let’s take a look at what this deal does for fantasy owners. Read the rest of this entry »

In case you hadn’t heard, it’s officially the Hot Stove season in ottoneu Fantasy Baseball, so it’s time to start talking trades with other owners in your league. The FanGraphs Staff league is already buzzing with rumors and conjecture, but most of those have to do with what Eno is hiding under his hair. That aside, three trades have already been made, and I was proactive enough to be involved with two of them. Let’s take a look and talk strategy, shall we?

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Erik Hahmann pointed out a couple of gems in Ottoneu playoff pick six for Tuesday and I’d like to grab the baton and run with a few more, because looking over the names available, there are some real interesting opportunities today.

Jorge Posada ($1.00)

The ragged old backstop has been pretty much guaranteed to appear as DH throughout the Division Series and tonight he’ll face Rick Porcello. Posada has eleven at bats against Porcello and he’s 3-9 with a double and two walks. That’s not much of a sample size, but on the season, Posada was really quite solid against right handed pitching, posting a .269/.348/.466 triple slash and managed to hit 14 home runs in 279 at bats.

Porcello struggles versus lefties, giving up 14 home runs in just a little over 100 innings pitched this season. Against lefties, his FIP is 4.51 and his xFIP is 4.16, in part due to a HR/FB of 12.1% and BABIP of .347 vs. lefties, but he’s pretty well earned most of it as his xBABIP sits at about .320. Fully 13 of the 18 home runs he’s given up this season have either had plenty of distance or classified as no doubters by ESPN Home Run Tracker, so it’s not like he’s giving up cheapies either. I look for Posada to square the ball up pretty well this evening.

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A bunch of recent minor signings and news items probably don’t deserve full posts but might be relevant in deeper leagues. Let’s clear them out!

Jose Arredondo is healthy
Arredondo is finally good to go after a two-year battle with his elbow. You might wonder who this dude is, but remember his excellent 2008 with the Angels (3.10 FIP), when he was good enough to close for most teams. And then remember how bad Francisco Cordero is (4.53 xFIP last year), and you’ll know that Arredondo may just vulture a save or two this year. Sure, Aroldis Chapman is starting in the pen, too, and is in line in front of Arredondo, but he’s also got the ability to start. File this name away, at the very worst he may be useful in deeper leagues that use holds.

Shane Victorino was called out by Charlie Manuel
While Manuel may not be right to call out his player publicly, the fact that he mentioned that Victorino was swinging for the fences too often was interesting. Victorino had the worst BABIP of his career last year, and the highest fly-ball rate. These things are related, since the BABIP on fly balls is poor. Give Victorino a few home runs less and push his batting average a few ticks higher if he’s listening to his manager. Either way, he’s a decent bounce-back pick, and always shows a little power and a good amount of speed. Under-rated if you ask me.

Chien-Ming Wang to be ready for spring training
He hasn’t been useful for anything other than Wang jokes since about 2007 (or 2008 if you want to be generous), but Wang says his shoulder feels good and that he’d like to compete for a role in the rotation in spring training. Carlos Silva had some similar statistics and came to the weaker league and performed well – this Wang may not be done Chunging yet. Don’t forget about him in your deeper leagues, even if his lack of strikeouts makes his upside a little less palatable.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Alex Rios
Rios surged early this year, and was one of the most added players. Unfortunately, but predictably, he slowed as the season wore one. A lot of this came down to a bad BABIP, as his power production was fairly consistent.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.340, 19 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. You got him for cheap last year, and he’s still worth far more than that.

Curtis Granderson
The extraordinary season that many predicted from Granderson was anything but. He still put up solid numbers across the board, and was a four win player, but most expected better. Will his second year in the pinstripes, his age 30 season, be any better?
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 27 HR, 16 SB
Verdict: Keep. His kind of all-around production is still hard to find.

Shane Victorino
A career year at age 29. Who would have guessed? However, some owners are skeptical, and afraid his batting average will never return to a level close to .300. Plus, you have to wonder if he can put up numbers close to his 2010 campaign.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.345, 15 HR, 28 SB
Verdict: Keep. You won’t be able to let him go and pay the same price for him, so he’s worth holding on to, even if he can’t repeat 2010.

Will Venable
Venable was able to be had for next to nothing this year, thanks to playing for the Padres and his low batting average. With added playing time, Venable turned in a solid fantasy performance this year. If he could cut back on the strikeouts, he could be an outstanding player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .250/.330, 15 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you paid more than a couple of bucks for him, you can cut him. Otherwise, he’s worth a roster spot.

Carlos Quentin
You didn’t think he could ever repeat 2008, did you? However, for a power hitter, his strikeout rate is pretty darn good. All he needs to do is stop pressing and hit some more line drives, and Quentin will be golden.
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.350, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. If he could hit 30+ homers again, I’d be willing to swallow his poor batting average.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

There’s a Phillie outfielder that should be getting more pub these days, and his name is not Jayson Werth. In fantasy circles at least, it’s Shane Victorino that’s been performing at a laudable pace most of the year. Maybe it’s my fandom, or the BABIP-lowered .259 batting average, but I’ve been guilty of ignoring Victorino myself. Should I have given him more pub?

I’m not sure. Going into the season, he struck me as a little overrated – a Denard Span dressed up in more expensive and slightly more powerful (and, judging by his nickname, exciting) clothing. A good batting average and 30 stolen bases is worthwhile, but 10ish home runs means you shouldn’t pay too much for it, after all.

Well, then Victorino found his boomstick. His .196 ISO, 40.1% flyball percentage, and 11.4% HR/FB are all full-season career highs and have contributed to his career high in home runs, achieved with much of the season left. Of course, ISO is one of the last statistics to stabilize, so we should remember that. But, other than expected regression to his career means, is there something here that might stick?

One thing that leaps out at the page is a lack of linear progression towards these highs. He hasn’t had a growing flyball percentage, nor has his HR/FB total been inching forward. This isn’t something backed by extensive research, but nice linear buildup towards a career high just makes a person feel better about the repeatability of that ability. Say Victorino was getting older, slower, and more powerful – like Johnny Damon in his later New York years – then we might expect a couple of years with nice home run totals. Then again, Damon’s power didn’t come in a nice linear way either – his is more a picture of peaks and valleys.

Check it out:

Does Victorino’s look familiar?

We’ll have to plead not enough information, given how many more data points Damon has on Victorino. The best thing to note is that his speed scores are not going down, and with some regression in BABIP in the second half, Victorino might even be worth more than he has been to date – if he can hold on to his power gains.

Otherwise, he might just still be Denard Span – with a nice, powerful first half behind him. It’s all about production versus projection in the fantasy game, in the end.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Ian Kinsler – An ankle injury kept Kinsler out of the lineup early in the year. It is unclear if that injury has led to his decline in power. Kinsler has just 3 HR in 201 ABs after hitting 31 HR in 2009. He is suffering from hitting fewer FB and hitting fewer of those FB out of the park. But in his last eight games, Kinsler is batting .412 with 2 HR and 3 SB. It could be a small sample fluke or it could be evidence that the ankle is finally not bothering him anymore. I lean towards the latter and expect Kinsler to exceed the 10 HR (R) ZiPS projects for him.

Shane Victorino – Preseason projections had Victorino batting between .283 and .290, making his .249 AVG particularly annoying for his owners. A .227 BABIP in June has been especially troubling for Victorino. But the rest of his fantasy numbers are on pace or better than what was expected from him coming into the season. He is still a good source of SB and has displayed more HR power than anticipated. A comeback in AVG would make his fantasy season complete.

Barry Zito – After starting the season 6-1, Zito has cooled off considerably. In his last eight decisions he is 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA. But Zito has 5 Quality Starts in that span and could easily have a few more wins to his credit. Overall his FIP (3.78) is right in line with his ERA (3.43). Zito’s xFIP is considerably higher, but he has posted a lower ERA than xFIP in the eight previous years, each season for which xFIP data is available. With a solid WHIP (1.23) and an acceptable K rate (6.26), Zito remains an above-average pitcher if he keeps his ERA at his current FIP levels.

SELL

Adrian Gonzalez – Heading into the final day of June, Gonzalez has a .363 AVG with 7 HR and 23 RBIs in the month. He will not maintain either the AVG or RBI pace going forward. Gonzalez is a great player, one of the top sluggers around. But if you have the depth to trade him, now is the time to move him at the height of his value.

Carl Pavano – Raise your hand if you thought Pavano would have 9 W and a 3.33 ERA at the end of June. Last Player Picked has him at $15, making him one of the top 20 pitchers in all of baseball. But his K rate collapsed in June. After posting a 6.32 K/9 the first month of the season, Pavano was down to a 3.83 mark this month. Only a .187 BABIP and an 84.5 LOB% has kept his numbers so strong. Because people remember the injury-prone Pavano of a few years ago, it may be hard to find much trade interest in him. But his owners owe it to themselves to find if anyone is willing to gamble on a top-20 pitcher.

Buster Posey – Trade recommendations are for redraft leagues. Posey is one of the top prospects in the game but in 2010 his name value far exceeds his production. So far he has shown a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone (31.4 O-Swing%) along with having significant trouble versus fastballs (-3.59 wFB/C). Posey has not hit for much power and has a nice AVG thanks to a .310 BABIP. That is at the upper limit of normal levels but catchers as a group tend to have lower BABIPs than other players. Look for Posey’s AVG to fall without having a lot of power to make up for the drop.

HUNCH

Clint Barmes – The injury to Troy Tulowitzki has given Barmes a new lease on life as he takes over as the starting shortstop for the Rockies. After struggling through BABIP nightmares in April (.222) and May (.234) Barmes has turned it around in June to get his mark up to .269 for the season. He’s not going to hit for much of an AVG but at least now it is high enough to be a major league regular. Since taking over at SS, Barmes is hitting .316 with 2 HR, 7 RBIs and 7 R in 11 games. The real question is if he can get back to the power numbers he showed in 2009. I like Barmes to exceed his (R) ZiPS total of 7 HR for the rest of the way.