Archive for Royals

In my most recent post, I lamented that I waited too long to take Greg Allen in my TGFBI draft, even though his ADP is well outside the top 300. It was as crushing a blow as one can have in Round 18 of a 15-team draft, as players with the potential to steal 20-plus bases are hard to come by, even in the earlier rounds. THE BAT projects 22 players to steal at least 20 bases this season, and Steamer projects only 19 players to reach that threshold. (ATC is more optimistic, admitting 29 players into the 20-plus projected steals club.)

Worse yet, a number of those players are across-the-board contributors (most notably Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna Jr., Trea Turner and Francisco Lindor) who will be long gone before the time you realize you need to catch up on steals. The reality is that it’s hard to make up for lost ground in stolen bases in the final rounds of your drafts, but that’s precisely the time you can toss up a Hail Mary. There are a handful of players who not only could give you 15 steals, but some moderate power as well, making it more worth your while to target them.
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The Royals’ closer situation is distinctly different from those of the teams already previewed in this series on bullpens for likely non-contenders. The Marlins and Diamondbacks will almost certainly be auditioning relievers for various roles — including closer — in spring training. Will Smith figures to be the Giants’ opening day closer if he sticks around, but it seem likely he will get dealt. The same goes for the Orioles and Mychal Givens, and if they don’t trade their incumbent closer this spring, it could easily happen at some point during the season.

Wily Peralta would appear to be the Royals’ equivalent of Givens. He took over as the team’s closer shortly after Kelvin Herrera was traded to the Nationals in last June, and he converted all 14 of his save chances. But whereas Givens’ most likely path to losing his job is getting traded to a team that uses him in a different role, Peralta could get ousted as closer without leaving Kansas City. While he throws hard and, at least in 2018, got a lot of weak ground ball contact, there is little else in Peralta’s skill set that suggests he can be a consistently effective closer.
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While most of the fantasy community fawns over young talent, many overlooked Whit Merrifield’s breakthrough in 2017. In NFBC drafts prior to the 2018 season Merrifield only carried an average draft position of 69th overall, at a time when stolen bases prove to be difficult to procure in spite of being one season removed from 80 runs, 19 home runs, 78 RBI, 34 stolen bases and a solid .288/.324/.438 slash line in 148 games. Perhaps his late age breakout caused fantasy owners to be wary of him repeating it this year. Read the rest of this entry »

With the countdown of games left winding down and the stakes getting higher, there are actually some intriguing pitchers to be found on waivers in the vast majority of leagues. But is there any enough reward to balance the risk with any of the widely-available ones who are scheduled to start Friday?

Here are the eight most-available starters or primary pitchers from Friday’s slate. I have been using a 25 percent ownership rate on Fantrax as a cutoff point for inclusion in these reports, but I extended it by a percentage point, just so I could write about Ian Kennedy.
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Wednesday’s slate of starting pitchers is not fully set, as there are still no fewer than five teams listing TBD as their starter as of this writing. I have filled in some of the blanks, projecting that Stephen Gonsalves will be the Twins’ primary pitcher and Sam Gaviglio will start for the Blue Jays. That increases the number of widely-available projected “starters” to eight, using a 25 percent ownership rate on Fantrax as a cutoff point.

While most owners are forsaking these hurlers, a few are reasonable streaming options, particularly in deeper formats.
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As is usually the case, the selection of streamable starting pitchers is much heavier on risk than reward, but there is actually a widely-available starter who looks like a pretty safe bet to help your rotation. It’s Felix Pena, who is unowned in at least 85 percent of the leagues on ESPN, CBS and Yahoo and more than 75 percent of Fantrax leagues. In a column I wrote just last week, I made the case for viewing Pena as Patrick Corbin Lite.
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When the game reached the seventh inning and Kenley Jansen remained in the dugout, it became apparent the Dodgers were going to keep him out of a potential save situation in Texas. Jansen’s allowed runs in each of his four appearances since returning from the disabled list without a rehab outing resulting in seven earned runs, two losses and a blown save. Less than optimal in the midst of a pennant chase. Kenta Maeda recorded his first save of the year, and second in his career during the regular season, allowing a hit, an earned run and two walks with a strikeout. He’s made six appearances as a reliever this year with a 2.69 ERA, 10 strikeouts against two walks and a matching 1.42 WHIP and FIP. While it’s apparent Maeda will back up Jansen going forward, the team will use their veteran closer this weekend in the role in a key match-up versus Arizona:

Kenley Jansen will be ready to close tomorrow against Arizona, Dave Roberts said.

— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) August 30, 2018

In other Dodgers news, the team placed a waiver claim on Ryan Madson in an attempt to bolster the bullpen before September. The teams have until Friday afternoon to consummate a deal. Stay tuned to world of evolving bullpens. Read the rest of this entry »

If you read my recent piece on Lucas Giolito and Kyle Freeland, then you know I have a growing fascination with pitchers who excel at getting both chases and freezes. (And if you haven’t read it, you’ll find out why I’m fixated with them by going here.) Jakob Junis is this very sort of pitcher, yet it’s been hard to write glowing words about a starter with an ERA above 5.00 and an HR/9 north of 2.0.
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It just hasn’t been Salvador Perez’s season so far. He missed the Royals’ first 20 games with a Grade 2 MCL tear in his left knee, which he sustained while carrying luggage. Perez responded well upon his return, posting an .840 OPS over his first 11 games and even catching both games of a doubleheader just four days after getting activated.

Since then, Perez has been hampered by a different type of baggage. Over his last 54 games, he has been batting .194 overall and just .201 on balls in play. His xBA over that period, according to Baseball Savant, is .257, but that doesn’t mean that Perez’s fantasy owners should just sit back and enjoy the positive regression to come. Over last month, encompassing 101 plate appearances, Perez has batted .163 with one home run and three doubles, and his hard contact rate has been a pedestrian 34.7 percent.
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Arizona did not deploy Brad Boxberger until the 11th inning for a save opportunity, but Boxberger failed to convert it for the second straight outing. Boxberger allowed an unearned run to score but it’s the three walks which raises eyebrows, not the end result. Leadoff walks never end well for closers and Boxberger started the inning with one to Gregory Polanco. Then he handed out a free pass to Josh Bell along with an intentional walk to Austin Meadows after a sacrifice bunt to load the bases. Had Jake Lamb made a better throw to home, perhaps it’s a moot point, but Boxberger’s walked five over his last six innings giving up three home runs and six earned runs in these appearances. As a result, Boxberger’s walk percentage has risen to 12.1 percent and his WHIP to an uncomfortable 1.37 through 26.1 innings.

It’s important to note, Boxberger’s only thrown 27.2 innings total across all levels in 2016 and 37 innings last year due to injuries. Fatigue could be a factor as the All-Star break looms. Arizona will let him continue in the role not wishing to increase arbitration to Archie Bradley, but in the midst of a pennant chase in the wide open National League West may eventually force their hand. Bradley’s only yielded one earned run in 10.1 innings in June despite his 4:4 K:BB in them. Yoshihisa Hirano‘s on a 21 game (18.1 inning) scoreless streak but mostly works in the seventh inning as a setup pitcher. Andrew Chafin’s also pitching well tossing 23 scoreless outings of his last 25 giving up only two earned runs his last 17.1 innings (1.04 ERA). Whether or not the Diamondbacks make a change remains to be seen, but Boxberger’s officially under watch as innings accrue. If the walks and home runs persist, he could be on the outside looking in for save chances in July. Read the rest of this entry »