Archive for Royals

Every now and then, I need to refresh my memory on what the baseline stats are for various pitch types, and that brings me back to this piece on pitch type performance from fellow RotoGrapher Alex Chamberlain. I am not only reminded of how inferior sinkers generally are at inducing whiffs and preventing hits on balls in play, but of Alex’s advice to pitchers: “Seriously, don’t throw a sinker.”

But, of course, lots of big league pitchers do, and 33 of them threw at least 500 sinkers in 2019. Given that pitchers stand to give up fewer hits if they switched from their sinker to another offering — assuming their version of that alternative pitch was at least decent — it seems like pitchers who ditch or de-emphasize their sinker should get more attention for doing just that. It also would seem that more pitchers would make that change. In every year of the 2010s, there were no more than 10 pitchers in a given season who decreased their sinker usage by 10 percentage points or more (and also threw at least 100 innings both the current and previous seasons).
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My first reaction to Maikel Franco agreeing to sign a one-year, $2.95 million deal with the Royals was one of slight disappointment. After four years of being roughly league-average or worse, I did not have high expectations for Franco going into 2020, but in leaving one of the majors’ best home run parks for right-handed hitters for one of the worst, my expectations got even lower.

Then in looking over Franco’s stats as a Phillie, something occurred to me. He has an incredibly similar profile to another third baseman who has been a much better home run hitter than Franco has been in recent years. While Franco has averaged 22.5 at-bats for every home run going back to 2016, this other third baseman has needed only 16.3 at-bats per homer over the same period. Here is how these two third basemen have stacked up for each of the last four seasons.

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For each of the previous installments of this series, where I have compared the 2019 seasons of two players on different trajectories who achieved similar Roto value, I have run a poll. The assumption behind the polls is that the two players could be similarly valued for 2020. I’ve used the polls to get a pulse on which player would be viewed as the better fantasy performer — the one on the upswing or the one who just had a “down” year?

In comparing Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez, whose 5×5 Roto values were separated by one-tenth of a dollar, there is no mystery as to which player will be targeted earlier on draft day. In the #2EarlyMocks, Martinez ranked seventh among outfielders with an 18.6 ADP, while Soler ranked 30th with a 97.3 ADP. In the recently-completed Pitcher List Experts Mock that I participated in, Martinez was the 20th player chosen overall, and Soler stayed on the board until the 73rd pick. Soler may have slightly outearned Martinez this year, but the Red Sox outfielder/DH has had success for so much longer that it is not at all surprising that fantasy owners would not view them as equivalent.
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Though they have different types of fantasy appeal, Whit Merrifield and Eduardo Escobar have a few things in common. Both were late bloomers, and both will turn 31 before the start of spring training next year. Both players qualified to be eligible at second base in fantasy leagues in 2020. They will also head into the coming season having accrued nearly the same value in standard 5×5 Roto leagues in 2019. Escobar ranked fifth among second basemen with $20.8 in value, while Merrifield was one spot behind him with $20.3 in value.

Despite being at the same point on the aging curve, Merrifield and Escobar will enter 2020 on different trajectories. Nearly across the board, Merrifield’s skill indicators held steady, and he improved as a run producer, but because his stolen base total plunged from 45 to 20, he lost $5.3 in value. He also fell from ranking second in Roto value at second base in 2018. Meanwhile, Escobar added $9.2 in value, increasing his home run total from 23 to 35, his RBI total from 84 to 118 and his run total 75 to 94. These surges far outstripped the slightly more than 10 percent increase he achieved in plate appearances in his first full season with the Diamondbacks.
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On the surface, Joe Jimenez secured his seventh save in eight chances last night. He survived loading the bases on three consecutive hits with two outs by striking out Trey Mancini. Delving into his splits since ascending to closing for the Tigers, Jimenez owns a 15:6 K:BB, 3.09 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 5.10 xFIP in 11.2 innings since August ninth. He’s yielded a 53.1 fly ball rate and 17.6 home run per fly ball percentage resulting in three home runs along with a .292/.370/.521 slash line against. Less than optimal. Fantasy owners will take the production of seven saves over his last 13 appearances but should proceed with caution due to the inflated WHIP and xFIP predicting some regression to the mean. Read the rest of this entry »

After a couple of days off, the Bullpen Report returns with a host of issues to address. First, Oakland removed the mystery of who will close despite the return of Blake Treinen from the injured list:

Liam Hendriks is now in essence the A’s closer. Team plans to ride his performance as long as possible, with Treinen available if needed at some point when he gets on track. But it’s Hendriks’ job now.

— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) July 6, 2019

Liam Hendriks notched his fourth save since Treinen landed on the injured list on June 21st with a clean ninth striking out two last night. This extends Hendriks’ scoreless streak to 15.2 innings and he’s not given up a run in 27 of his last 29 outings spanning 34.2 innings (0.78 ERA). Dating back to last September, Hendriks last 53 appearances yields a 1.29 ERA. He will get an extended view as the team’s closer going forward, plan accordingly.

On the other side of the spectrum, Edwin Diaz suffered his sixth loss giving up three hits, four earned runs and a walk in one-third of an inning recording his only out via a strikeout of Maikel Franco. However, Diaz allowed a lead-off double to J.T. Realmuto then a single by Jay Bruce snapping a tied game without recording an out. On April 29th, Diaz owned a 0.84 ERA converting all eight save chances. Since then, he’s worked 22.2 innings with a 7.89 ERA, 1.80 WHIP with 10 saves in 14 opportunities losing six decisions. Within this stretch, Diaz has allowed hitters a .330/.392/.560 slash line and a 47.4 hard hit rate against. But, he’s not alone in struggling in the Mets bullpen:

Of course, it's not just Diaz. Since May 27, the Mets' bullpen has produced an 8.06 ERA.

Let me repeat that: over a span of more than 100 innings, the Mets' bullpen has produced an 8.06 ERA.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) July 6, 2019

Quotes from the team and Diaz do not provide a warm fuzzy going forward. Diaz has bounced back from struggles due to performance or his mechanics being out of whack during his tenure in Seattle before, can he do it again? Time will tell.

Edwin Diaz on potentially moving into lower-leverage spots:

"I want to be the closer of this team. But if Mickey thinks that that's the way that I can find my confidence, or just feel more comfortable trying to get right, I'll pitch in whatever role that he wants me to."

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) July 6, 2019

For now, it’s been a rough 2019 for the consensus top two closers taken in drafts this preseason.

Just when it seemed safe to trust Ian Kennedy, he struggled during a blown save in Washington. Kennedy allowed three hits leading to two earned runs and a walk with a strikeout on Friday. He notched nine straight saves prior to this meltdown and entered riding a six game scoreless streak. Kennedy should bounce back and remains safe in the closer role with Kansas City. Brian Flynn gets his second win navigating around a hit and two walks for a scoreless 10th inning and Wily Peralta closed out his second save giving up a hit in a scoreless 11th inning. It’s Peralta’s first save since April 13th this year. Jonny Venters absorbs the loss for the Nationals ceding three hits and three runs (one earned) with a walk while striking out one. Fernando Rodney worked for the third straight game giving up a hit with two strikeouts.

A frustrating night for fantasy owners of Brewers and Pirates closers. Josh Hader gets his fourth hold working 1.1 scoreless innings walking one and striking out one. Hader did not return for the ninth inning with Milwaukee ahead by five runs despite only throwing 23 pitches. Instead, the Brewers turned to Deolis Guerra who only recorded two outs while coughing up four hits leading to four earned runs including a three-run home run by Josh Bell. Junior Guerra replaced him but allowed the game tying home run to Jung-Ho Kang. This Guerra received his third win despite his fifth blown save when the Brewers rallied in the top of the 10th against Pirates closer, Felipe Vazquez. After retiring Tyler Saladino, Vazquez served up three straight singles to Orlando Arcia, Manny Pina and Lorenzo Cain resulting in the eventual winning run. It’s the first loss of the season for Vazquez.

Two days removed from a diving tag play to get Kevin Kiermaier out, Mychal Givens did not receive the save chance last night in Toronto. Instead, Paul Fry locked down his second save with a clean ninth striking out one. It’s Fry’s first save since March 31st against the Yankees on the road. There’s no word about an injury to Givens so he should get the next chance if one presents itself, but with him representing one of the Orioles few trade chips, he will be handled with care.

With Diego Castillo not slated to return until after the All-Star break, and Jose Alvarado struggling since his return from the restricted list, it’s fallen upon Emilio Pagan to anchor the bullpen. However, he served up the tying run on a home run by Aaron Hicks last night leading to an eventual loss in extra innings. It’s Pagan’s fourth blown save this year. He did work two innings giving up two hits, one earned run and struck out two. Colin Poche, an arm of intrigue going forward, fired a scoreless 10th inning allowing a hit with a strikeout. Ryne Stanek gets collared with his second loss yielding to home runs, four hits and four earned runs in the top of the 11th. This benefited David Hale, who gets his second win working 2.1 scoreless innings scattering three hits and a walk with two strikeouts. Aroldis Chapman notched his 24th save walking one and striking out one in two-thirds of an inning.

Quick Hits: Boston welcomed back Heath Hembree to the bullpen. He served up a home run to John Hicks but finished the ninth with two strikeouts. Hembree entered this appearance only giving up one earned run in his previous 17.1 innings. Matt Barnes fired a clean eighth with two strikeouts and Ryan Brasier gets his seventh hold working 1.2 innings allowing two hits and striking out one…Adam Morgan gets his third win retiring the only two batters he faced prior to the Phillies rally versus Diaz highlighted above. Hector Neris walked one in a scoreless ninth in a non-save outing…Luke Jackson nets his fourth win giving up a hit with two strikeouts in a scoreless top of the ninth preceding a Braves rally….Save number 12 for Hansel Robles. He fired a clean ninth with a strikeout. It’s his first save since June 18th and his sixth in a row…Kirby Yates keeps adding to his breakout season. He recorded his first five out save retiring all five Dodgers he faced, two via strikeout. Yates has converted 28 of 29 save chances in the first half, snapped a three game losing streak for the Padres and ended the Dodgers streak of five straight come from behind wins at home.

It’s a tenuous time of year for fantasy owners. Amidst all the buy low and sell high noise, one needs to take stock of trends along with the standings. For instance, representing one of the top two picks at the position, Blake Treinen seems a bit off compared to last year. He recorded his 13th save last night, but needed to work around a hit and two walks. Through four innings this month, Treinen’s walked five batters with only two strikeouts. Overall, his 3.16 ERA accompanies a 4.79 xFIP with a drop in ground ball percentage by over 12 percentage points while his walk rate continues to rise sitting at 12.7 percent, his highest rate over his career. It could be mechanics or a hangover from usage last year, but it needs to be monitored. Read the rest of this entry »

Since the grind to find saves never ends, one cannot ignore any bullpen in flux. Atlanta could see more evolution within its high leverage situations with Arodys Vizcaino out for the year and A.J. Minter optioned to Triple-A. Yes, they could be in play for Craig Kimbrel eventually, but, the team’s not willing to lose a draft pick to sign him. Luke Jackson bounced back for his third save Friday night firing a clean ninth with two strikeouts. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Paul Sporer had some highly encouraging things to say about Hunter Dozier in his piece on early batter breakouts. Paul noted that Dozier has radically changed his approach in the early going, and with another week’s worth of data to consider, at least one of his changes remains staggering to ponder. Last season, Dozier was more aggressive than the typical major league hitter, swinging at 50.1 percent of the pitches he saw. Just over a month into this season, he has become extremely selective, lowering his Swing% to less than three-fourths (37.0 percent) of what it was in 2018.

The improved production that we have seen from Dozier — the higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate, higher Avg and OBP and possibly also the increased power as well — can all be traced back in part to this one change in approach. It’s still early enough in the season that it is more than reasonable to ask if his improvement is for real. If we answer that question by looking at the peripherals that underlie Dozier’s improved fantasy stats, we’d have to say it does look real.
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Since writing the initial 2019 Bullpen Report after the Mariners-Athletics series in Tokyo, three closer competitions have been decided. As expected by many owners, Will Smith and Alex Colome respectively nailed down the Giants’ and White Sox’s closer jobs. In a much more surprising move, Torey Lovullo chose Greg Holland as the Diamondbacks’ closer over Archie Bradley and Yoshihisa Hirano. Fantasy owners are starting to warm up to Holland, as he is now owned in 44 percent of CBS leagues and 20 percent of ESPN leagues. I recently made the case for adding him, so rather than present that argument here, I simply refer you to the piece I wrote on him.
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