Archive for Rockies

On Tuesday night, the Twins shut out the Blue Jays, 5-0, and while it was a superb performance by Jose Berrios, there wasn’t much of interest as far as relief work goes.

Or so I thought. A commenter for Wednesday morning’s Bullpen Report, docgooden85, pointed out a few things that are worth noting for those speculating on future Twins saves. Trevor Hildenberger, who we have listed in the “First Up” column in the closer’s grid, did pitch the eighth inning, but in the aftermath of a couple of recent ineffective performances, he did it with a five-run lead. Also, in Ryan Pressly (1.38 ERA and 18 strikeouts over his last 13 innings) and the recovering Addison Reed (elbow impingement), Hildenberger has a couple of rivals for saves down the stretch, should the Twins trade Fernando Rodney.
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As daunting as chasing saves can be, adding in the pending trade deadline to trade rumors makes it difficult to publish an early report. But here we are. News of a hugwatch broke out on Twitter suggesting Jeurys Familia could be on the move. He did not enter an obvious save opportunity against the Yankees on the road leaving Robert Gsellman in for the two inning save. While news broke on which teams would not be adding Familia, it appears the focus centers on Oakland trying to obtain his services to add to their already stocked bullpen. If the A’s do not wish to overpay in a scarce starting pitcher market, why not try to shorten games with a deep bullpen? Familia’s yet to allow a run in seven scoreless outings in July yielding one hit in them. He’s also been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 appearances. It needs to be pointed out Familia should setup if he joins the A’s due to his inability to get left-handed hitters out this year (.288 batting average against).

However, since there’s no official word as of this writing, the charts will not be updated until teams announce a deal. As for the Mets, it appears Robert Gsellman could transition to the closer role with Anthony Swarzak struggling and Seth Lugo needed for multiple inning outings. Gsellman did give up two unearned runs against the Yankees on two hits and two walks with two strikeouts during his two inning save. It’s his fifth save this year but Gsellman will need to rebound in the second half in order to appeal to fantasy owners. He’s coughed up 13 earned runs over his last 12 games (14.1 innings) resulting in a 8.18 ERA. Perhaps the break will help him bounce back, but it could be a bumpy ride if he does ascend to the ninth inning. Read the rest of this entry »

During a freaky Friday the 13th, handcuffs to the closer emerged as focal points of interest with three different relievers garnering saves last night. Starting in Pittsburgh, where Felipe Vazquez had worked in five of the previous six game, Kyle Crick notched his second save of the season allowing two hits in 1.1 innings with a strikeout. He’s in the midst of a 13 game scoreless streak dating back to June 15th limiting hitters to a .167 batting average against within it. Crick’s also recorded seven holds and two saves without a blown save. As for Vazquez, a well earned day of rest but he’s converted his last 11 save chances in 13 straight scoreless outings as well with a 1.02 ERA his last 17 games and 32 strikeouts his last 17.2 innings.

Ground ball machine Scott Alexander locked down his first save as a Dodger in spite of yielding two hits. Alexander’s worked in three consecutive games but the team decided to rest Kenley Jansen on Friday, who worked the the two prior games and threw 29 pitches on Thursday. As for Alexander, he’s not given up a run in 6.2 innings to start July with seven strikeouts against two walks. On the season, his 74.3 ground ball rate and 20.4 hard hit percentage against make him a valued reliever in real life, plus, Alexander’s converted all 12 holds provided him this year. Read the rest of this entry »

In a fairly surprising turn of events, the Rockies demoted Jon Gray Saturday. Gray has arguably been baseball’s most enigmatic pitcher this year, posting a career-worst 5.77 ERA supported by career-best peripherals — e.g., a 13.4% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) underpinning a 28.9% strikeout rate (K%), and fielding independent metrics of 2.78 xFIP, 3.08 FIP, and 3.15 SIERA. Given our most basic sabermetric understandings of baseball, Gray should be a very good pitcher, even if he pitches half his starts at hitters’ paradise Coors Field.

I have written about how a common-breed Rockies pitcher’s peripherals might be penalized for calling Coors Field home (Gray inspired this bit of research as well). FIP metrics generally underestimate ERA by anywhere from 0.8 to 1.3 runs for home starts (compared to 0.0 to 0.2 runs for road starts), suggesting that Rockies pitchers may underperform (a) their FIPs by 0.35 runs or (b) their SIERAs by 0.65 runs — given error bars, maybe more.

Still, that doesn’t explain why Gray’s ERA is nearly 6 right now. I shed light on the ridiculousness of the move; his strand rate (LOB%) is suppressed and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is elevated, even compared to his uniquely bad baselines. I’m not sure there’s much more to it.

Nick Mariano of RotoBaller noted here that Gray’s fastball has been incredibly hittable since his debut and especially this year. Despite my thoughts on the inevitability of regression in Gray’s favor, I wanted to pursue Mariano’s train of thought a little further. Gray’s fastball is bad, but how bad? And why?

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Although Bruce Bochy listed Sam Dyson and Tony Watson as his “primary options” to close with Hunter Strickland headed to the disabled list, could Mark Melancon work his way into at least a time share? While it’s not out of the realm of possibilities, keep in mind Dyson worked the three previous games prior to last night so he received a much needed day off. Melancon stepped in to record his first save, one year and one day since his last one before missing the majority of last season. For one night, San Francisco’s blueprint went exactly as planned with Madison Bumgarner firing eight shutout innings and Melancon locking down the save. Read the rest of this entry »

Wade Davis has been among the wildest relievers of 2018, but for the first two months of the season, it scarcely seemed to matter. He rolled into June having blown only two of his 20 save opportunities, and he sported a 2.35 ERA. Even at Coors Field, Davis had overcome his wildness, holding opponents to a .276 wOBA with only two extra-base hits (one homer and one double) allowed over 9.2 innings.

The Rockies’ closer has been largely successful, despite a 33.6 percent Zone% that is the second-lowest among qualified relievers, because he has been extremely stingy with hard contact over most of the season. Through May 31, Davis was allowing an average exit velocity of just 88.4 mph on flyballs and line drives (per Baseball Savant). Since then, that average is sitting at 94.4 mph.
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Drafting Alex Colome comes with inherent risk due to his sometimes volatile nature. Colome started the season giving up seven earned runs and 14 hits over his initial seven innings in eight outings resulting in two blown saves. His five losses leads the majors of all qualified relievers. However, Colome seemed to right the ship with a 1.84 ERA during his last 15 innings, including 10 consecutive saves with 17 strikeouts since April ninth. Many believed Colome would be traded to a contender, just not in May. However, Seattle bolstered its already strong bullpen by acquiring Colome to pitch in a setup role and provide insurance for Edwin Diaz along with necessary days off to keep him healthy.

Trying to predict how Kevin Cash will navigate high leverage innings in the near term seems impossible to do. The dreaded committee approach seems prudent to plan on with Chaz Roe, Jose Alvarado and Sergio Romo figuring in the mix. Roe’s struggled of late with a 6.75 ERA his last 12 appearances (six earned runs in eight innings) dating back to April 27th. HE has entered a Rays game in a tie or with a lead 19 of 24 times and in the seventh inning or later in 16 outings. Most fantasy owners would like to see Jose Alvarado ascend to the closer role due to his effectiveness this year along with his enticing fastball. Read the rest of this entry »

Heading into Monday’s schedule, the Braves were the only team in the majors to not have recorded a save, but Arodys Vizcaino put an end to that shutout. In limiting the Phillies to a Nick Williams single in the top of the ninth inning, Vizcaino protected a 2-1 lead and gave himself his first save of 2018.

Much of Vizcaino’s save drought can be tied to the Braves having played in several lopsided contests early in the season. When he was finally presented with a save opportunity last Wednesday against the Nationals, he let a one-run lead evaporate by giving up a solo home run to Matt Adams. Even if Vizcaino had some save chances earlier on, he may not have fared well. He walked six batters over his first four appearances, which covered 3.2 innings, and he threw a paltry 52.4 percent of his pitches for strikes.
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Just as it looked like Felipe Rivero might have the Pirates’ closer job all to himself, Clint Hurdle made good on his word to have him share the role with Juan Nicasio. With a 4-3 lead, Hurdle summoned Rivero for the eighth inning, as the top of the Cubs’ order was due up. However, the lefty needed 20 pitches to work through Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell.

But work through them he did, allowing only a Happ double. The ninth inning, then, belonged to Nicasio, who allowed a pair of doubles and a single and issued an intentional walk to Kris Bryant. He departed the game with a blown save and no outs recorded. Nicasio was followed by deposed closer Tony Watson, who allowed all three inherited runners to score (saddling Nicasio with the loss), plus two more runs to create a 9-4 deficit.

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It has been a wacky first week of baseball. One part heartbreaking, two parts breathtaking, eight parts endlessly fascinating, the sport never ceases to amaze. Some storylines (I can’t even avoid that pun if I tried) with serious fantasy implications emerged last week — namely, the historically great start to Trevor Story‘s career and the earth-shattering injury that ended Kyle Schwarber’s season.

I’m here, like everyone else, to discuss the former. I’m sure you’ve read your fair share of takes. This fruit is hanging so low, I almost stepped on it. I hope this doesn’t exhaust you, and I hope this doesn’t bore you. Because Story is more than just a statistically anomalous home run-hitting machine. He has a ceiling, and he has a floor, and I want to find out where — or, perhaps more abstractly, who — exactly they might be.

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