Archive for Rockies

Yesterday, I noted that Carlos Gonzalez’s isolated power, as determined by my expected isolated power (xISO) equation, mirrored his current production. This would be great news if we were talking about CarGo circa 2013.

Unfortunately, we’re talking about the 2015 incarnation of CarGo, he of the .109 ISO, .188 batting average and .233 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The latter-most statistic might be the first talking point a proponent of his brings up in his defense: CarGo’s BABIP is atrocious right now — it’s just a matter of time until his bad luck turns around. Indeed, there may be some truth to this sentiment.

Read the rest of this entry »

I am a chronic off-season Mets rosterbater. Many of my potential Mets trade Tweets are far from rational. Some have included proposals for Troy Tulowitzki, which then leads to trading Daniel Murphy in order to open second base for a long-term competition between Wilmer Flores and Dilson Herrera.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 97

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Colorado Rockies and the Kansas City Royals as well as discuss player projections and how to value players in quirky league formats.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music Approximately 53 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

Today’s Roto Riteup mysteriously focuses on the Braves and Rockies.

–  The Braves have finally decided that Tyler Pastornicky is their shortstop, at least for the 2012. Pastornicky is what some would call a “contact machine,” but he doesn’t have much in the way of power production. Pastornicky has put up decent SB numbers in the minors, but don’t expect him to swipe more than, say, 20 bags while hitting in the eighth hole.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2012 Catcher keeper rankings continue here with the third tier which is filled with a little bit of hope and a whole lot of promise.  How much of that promise we see…well, that’s going to be the question.  In case you missed the first two tiers, here are links to Tier 1 and Tier 2 so you can see exactly where these guys here in Tier 3 rank in the grand scheme of things.

Read the rest of this entry »

Garrett Atkins drew plenty of interest in the off-season from major league teams. The Phillies, Twins, Rays and Angels have all been linked to Atkins since the end of the 2008 season. But fantasy owners are not showing quite the same interest. Many people view the hot corner as a weak position, yet the third baseman for the Rockies has an ADP in the mid 70s, meaning he’s not going on average until the seventh round.

Atkins put up a .286-21-99-86-1 line last year. These were declines across the board from his standout 2006 season, when he was a top-20 hitter and had a $31 fantasy value. His current ADP values him right around the numbers he put up last year, meaning that fantasy players are not counting on much of a bounce-back season from the 29-year old. This pretty much matches the three projection systems, which show a bump in average but have the rest of Atkins’ numbers maintaining 2008 levels.

Is there any reason to think Atkins can improve upon his 2008 output?

His BABIP for road games last year was just .251, which led to a .233 average away from Coors Field. It is reasonable to think he will improve upon this and add some batting average to his line. But Atkins had good power numbers away from home, hitting 12 of his 21 home runs in road parks. So, even with a more normal BABIP, he’s not likely to add much in the power department.

The other thing that jumps out is Atkins’ split by position. Last year he split time between his normal 3B spot and he also saw considerable time at 1B, filling in for the injured Todd Helton. Here are his splits by position:

3B: .307/.338/.485 in 396 PA
1B: .258/.316/.407 in 263 PA

Prior to 2008, Atkins had appeared in just 10 games at first base. Helton had back surgery at the end of September and his status for the start of the season is up in the air. But the Rockies might let Joe Koshansky fill in for Helton this year after his big season at Triple-A, where he went .300-31-121 in 457 at-bats.

The average fan thinks anyone can play first base and not have it affect their offensive numbers. But players from Mickey Mantle to Mike Piazza have found out otherwise. Perhaps Atkins’ position split last year was nothing more than a fluke. But perhaps it wasn’t.

We all want to draft undervalued players. We search for sleepers and reach for them during the draft, hoping they can match our expectations. But with Atkins, we have a player who is being valued at what he did in 2008. Unlike with our favorite sleeper, we know what Atkins is capable of at the major league level – we saw it three years ago in 2006.

If you pick at the top of your draft and don’t end up with Alex Rodriguez or David Wright, it makes sense to target Atkins either at the end of the sixth round or beginning of the seventh. This is in line with what he did last year and if he just duplicates what he did in 2008 you are in okay shape. Yet you still have the upside potential of a healthy player not far removed from a $31 season.

That seems like a better idea than reaching for Pablo Sandoval in the 15th round.

Things did not look good for Chris Iannetta when the Rockies re-signed catcher Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year deal prior to the start of the 2008 season. But Iannetta took over the starting job in mid-June and delivered 18 HR and 65 RBIs in 333 at-bats. Now, fantasy players are salivating over the prospects of a power-hitting catcher playing full time in Coors Field.

Iannetta prospered thanks to a .240 isolated slugging percentage. He had a flyball rate of 40.7 percent and when he hit the ball in the air, it left the park at an 18.2 percent rate. Iannetta destroyed lefties, batting .275/.398/.550 versus southpaws.

The big red flag surrounding Iannetta is his strikeout rate. He struck out in 27.6 percent of his at-bats last year, which would have ranked 10th in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. However, Iannetta did not have such a poor contact rate in the minors. In 803 at-bats in the minors, he had a 20.7 K% and at Triple-A it was 17.1 percent.

In 2008, Iannetta hit virtually the same at home as he did on the road. He posted an .893 OPS in Coors and an .897 mark in neutral road parks. This was due to a fluke BABIP split, in which he posted just a .276 mark in his home games.

Iannetta should get around 150-200 extra at-bats next season as the Rockies’ full-time starter from the beginning of the season. Those extra plate appearances, along with an expected improvement in his Coors Field numbers, will boost him to the top half of fantasy catchers, with a chance to move into elite status if he can maintain his solid road numbers.