Let’s Talk About a Comp for Trevor Story, with Caution

It has been a wacky first week of baseball. One part heartbreaking, two parts breathtaking, eight parts endlessly fascinating, the sport never ceases to amaze. Some storylines (I can’t even avoid that pun if I tried) with serious fantasy implications emerged last week — namely, the historically great start to Trevor Story‘s career and the earth-shattering injury that ended Kyle Schwarber’s season.

I’m here, like everyone else, to discuss the former. I’m sure you’ve read your fair share of takes. This fruit is hanging so low, I almost stepped on it. I hope this doesn’t exhaust you, and I hope this doesn’t bore you. Because Story is more than just a statistically anomalous home run-hitting machine. He has a ceiling, and he has a floor, and I want to find out where — or, perhaps more abstractly, who — exactly they might be.

So let’s just beat this proverbial horse to proverbial death. Trevor Story is a real, totally human dude doing unreal, totally inhuman things. How did we get here?, you ask yourself. Why didn’t you draft him?. Why are you such an idiot?????

Relax. You’re not an idiot. I can’t tell you where Story was being drafted prior to the season starting because NFBC ADP continues to update, and the data show that someone recently drafted Story as early as 59th overall. But I’m pretty sure it was well outside the top-15 shortstops — perhaps near the back end of the top-25. Part of the reason is because Story was not really a blue chip prospect. Of greater concern, though, was Jose Reyes‘ legal troubles and their nebulous impact on Story’s playing time. So if you didn’t draft Story, it’s really not your fault. It was a shady situation to begin with.

If you didn’t pay attention to Story, however — if you didn’t give him the time of day whatsoever — well, that might be your fault, just a little bit. Story hit 20 home runs and stole 22 bases in 575 plate appearance split almost equally between Double-A and Triple-A last year. The power is legitimate, and the speed is legitimate.

Any minor-leaguer who strikes out thrice as often as he walks, however, inherently carries sizable risk. And, alas, that is exactly what Story did during his flashy 2015 campaign. Like clockwork, Story continues these trends, as evidenced by his 25% strikeout rate (as of Saturday afternoon) and nonexistent walk rate through 20 PAs.

Have you heard this cautionary tale? A young phenom hits a 30-30-.300 season. The counting categories outshine Story’s. The performance occurred entirely at Triple-A — in other words, entirely against verifiably more difficult competition. And the plate discipline, despite disconcerting contact issues, carried with it a very robust 18.6% walk rate. In other words, this young phenom is a decidedly better prospect than Story.

Said prospect grabbed his cup of coffee from September 2014 and filled it to the brim. He hit 20 home runs in the first half of 2015 and seemed to be every bit the juggernaut he appeared to be in the minors.

If you’re lucky, Trevor Story’s ascent won’t be followed by Joc Pederson’s descent. But it’s hard to imagine any scenario where it won’t. If Pederson played shortstop, that would paint an entirely different story — alas, Story can fall to Pederson’s depths and likely still be plenty valuable, even in the shallowest formats.

Story reminds me of Ian Desmond: power, speed, many whiffs and few walks. It’s a loose, inexact comp, but I think it’s a reasonable ceiling for Story this season. Desmond was a consensus top-3 shortstop in 2013 and 2014 following his breakout. But there’s a fine line between Desmond’s highly valuable 2013, built upon below-average (but not terrible) plate discipline, and his easily discardable 2014, built upon actually terrible plate discipline.

Obviously, it’s hard to say now what you’ll get. If you’re looking to sell high, understand that Story’s ceiling is much higher than scouts gave him credit for a couple of years ago. Ian Desmond circa 2013 is nothing to sneeze at, so if you’re trading him for, I don’t know, the red-hot Jean Segura, you’re making a tragic mistake.

If you’re looking to buy, understand that Story’s floor is much lower than his historic feat lets on. He’s simply a volatile commodity, and there’s really no knowing who we’ll get for the remaining 156 games of the season.

If you can pull off a heist, by all means, pull off a heist. Rarely can one say this with absolute certainty, but I’m saying it: Story will never be more valuable than he is now. Owners will trade you their first- and second-born children for him. Just know he is more than a fluke. How much more than a fluke, however — only time will tell.

For his sixth homer and currently most recent homer, Story turned on a fastball that basically should have sawed him off. The ball went 400 feet when, for 95% of the league, it should have gone 40 or -2. In other words: there’s bona fide talent there, and that kind of plate coverage can float an entire career. But, like Pederson and Desmond, Story’s prodigious feat will carry him only as far as his contact skills allow.