Archive for Rockies

The emergence of Gerrit Cole as a top-10 starting pitcher and top-three pitcher for strikeouts was one of the more notable developments in fantasy in 2018. As unexpected as Cole’s emergence may have been, he did have a history of being an above-average strikeout pitcher, particularly in his second and third season with the Pirates. Just as noteworthy was a cohort of starters who catapulted themselves well above the major league norm for strikeout rate after having been average or below-average strikeout pitchers prior to this past season.
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In most drafts, I hit a point where I look at my queue and the remaining player pool, and I’m not excited about any of my options. I am currently participating in one of Justin Mason’s 2EarlyMock drafts, and as we enter the final rounds, I have yet to have that feeling. A number of players went in the middle rounds whom I had stashed in my queue several rounds before they were taken. The ones that I drafted felt like tremendous bargains, and the ones that I missed left me envious.
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As the season winds down and bullpen committees continue to populate the landscape, change could be upon us in fantasy baseball. This site featured a terrific article detailing how handling relievers evolves in an interview with A.J. Hinch. Blended bullpens, new roles and keeping pitchers healthy make this column a necessary stop if chasing saves. For starters, 10 different relievers have recorded a save for the White Sox this year. Joakim Soria (16), Nate Jones (5), Jace Fry (4), Hector Santiago (2) and Luis Avilan (2) to this point, although only two of them remain on the roster. Also, Chris Beck, Xavier Cedeno, Juan Minaya, Bruce Rondon and Thyago Vieira each own one save this year. Last night, Ian Hamilton attempted his first career save but incurred the loss giving up a walk-off grand slam to Jason Kipnis. The inning started with Juan Minaya facing one hitter, Josh Donaldson and allowing an infield single after review. Then Caleb Frare entered yielding a hit to Yandy Diaz and recording the innings only out on a popped up bunt by Melky Cabrera. Hamilton then entered and hit Yan Gomes with a pitch prior to the Kipnis slam.

What does all this mean? The team will continue to audition relievers the rest of the season to try and see what roles will be applicable during their rebuild. Jones will handled carefully and it appears will not pitch in consecutive outings. He will be a factor in saves the last week and a half, but not overworked. Jace Fry pitched 1.2 scoreless innings giving up only a walk, but his ability to work more than one inning, along with Minaya make them valuable and not just ninth inning options. It stands to reason, if chasing a save, to avoid this bullpen due to the volatile usage and auditions still to come as the White Sox evaluate their young arms in high leverage. Read the rest of this entry »

When I started writing Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts earlier this season, the idea wasn’t to point out trends in small samples so that fantasy owners could act on them right away. That is almost always a bad idea. It was to identify changes in pitcher performance that could conceivably turn into longer-term trends, which in turn could be useful guides for making roster decisions. It could have easily been called Who To Put On Your Watch List.

Now that Labor Day is behind us, there isn’t much time left for small samples to become sufficiently large samples for making decisions. Then again, if you are still in contention, roster decisions will be especially crucial going forward. If you’ve been on autopilot in starting Jon Gray every week, there’s no time like now to consider if he is potentially worth benching. Similarly, if you continue to dismiss John Gant, even as he has shaved close to a run off his ERA over the past four weeks, you may be doing so at your own risk. Or maybe not…
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The past week saw several closing situations change hands. Are we on the verge of seeing another one flip?

Some fantasy owners have been anticipating a change of closer with the Astros, but only because they traded for Roberto Osuna. Hector Rondon has held off Osuna so far, and even after allowing Ryon Healy’s game-tying homer on Sunday, he hasn’t done anything that would seem to merit a demotion to a setup role. He did give up four runs to the Rangers in a non-save situation just over two weeks ago, but until Sunday that had been the only real blemish on Rondon’s stat line over the past month. In his eight other appearances, he had shut out the opposition over 8.1 innings on just two hits and two walks.
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While the Rockies seek clarity in their bullpen, fantasy owners feel the same. Last night, Adam Ottavino, back from an illness which sidelined him on Thursday, allowed a hit and struck out one batter to record his fifth save of the season. Wade Davis, who suffered his sixth loss on Thursday, did not pitch. There’s no report of an impending changing of the guard, but Colorado could use both Ottavino and Davis in save chances going forward. Ottavino’s within two saves of tying a career high and allowed runs in four of his last 19 outings, has registered multiple strikeout games in 29 of 53 this season and ranks fourth among qualified relievers in the National League in ERA (1.60).

However, before any change occurs, there’s $52 million reasons to use Davis to close games. It’s tough to stomach right now for Rockies fans, especially with him giving up multiple runs in three of his last four appearances. It’s been a rough start to the second half for Davis, sporting a 1-4 record with five saves in 8.2 innings but a 13.50 ERA, 8.34 FIP and WHIP just below two (1.96). Davis feels he’s found a glitch in his delivery after watching video, so it remains to be seen if a mechanical fix can help him improve in the heat of a playoff chase. Colorado will provide him a bit more leash, but consider this a timeshare going forward, but Davis needs to improve his ERA in losses (29.57 in seven innings) and reduce traffic on the bases. Read the rest of this entry »

The Twins had a lot more trust in Fernando Rodney heading into this season than fantasy owners did. While Rodney got a $4.5 million deal from the Twins to be their closer last December, fantasy owners typically passed him over until after the first 200 picks were made (220 NFBC ADP, 239 Fantrax ADP). Several opening day closers lost their grip on the role long ago, but Rodney was the Twins’ unquestioned closer all season long.

Until now. The Twins traded Rodney to the Athletics for minor league right-hander Dakota Chalmers on Thursday night, joining an already deep bullpen where Blake Treinen, Jeurys Familia and Lou Trivino have settled into their respective late-inning roles. Holds, much less saves, could be hard to come by for Rodney with his new club.
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Lucas Giolito did not have a good game on Wednesday night against the Yankees. We can cut him some slack for giving up six of his seven runs in the second inning, but still, allowing seven runs in five innings is not the best look.

But should we view it as a predictable outcome for a pitcher with a 6.23 ERA facing one of the majors’ top offenses? Or can we see it as an aberration? If we look at Giolito’s last six starts, his profile is different enough from the one he built in his first 17 starts of the season that we may need to judge his recent and future results differently. Yes, six starts — and the 36 innings they comprise — represent a small sample, but the changes have been dramatic enough that they merit a closer look.
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Just one day being used in a low-leverage situation, Corey Knebel was thrust into the 10th inning of a tie game with the Rockies. To his credit, Knebel breezed through the inning, allowing only a two-out walk to David Dahl. Three of the four batters he faced were left-handed, and Knebel’s recent struggles have occurred disproportionately against right-handed batters. Craig Counsell left Knebel in for the 11th inning, and after retiring leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon, he was set to face two tough righties, DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado. The latter put the Rockies ahead with a solo home run.
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There’s a fine line between stubborn and obstinate, and Bud Black seemingly walks it each year with struggling closers. It’s encouraging to see he trusts his ninth inning arm, but in the midst of a playoff chase, can he afford to keep providing save chances to Wade Davis? Davis blew his second straight save on Friday night in Milwaukee culminating on a three-run walk-off home run by Eric Thames. With the knowledge Davis converted 11 straight saves prior to these implosions, one can make the case for Black to stand by his man. However, Davis has blown six saves this year and giving up wins in the spotlight applies more pressure to his now tenuous hold on the closer role. Especially with Adam Ottavino thriving in the eighth inning.

Colorado could give Davis a couple of mental days off or let him work in lower leverage for an outing or two to get him back on track without removing him from his present role. On the surface, he’s giving up eight percent more contact, to be expected with half of his games in Coors, and generating fewer swinging strikes (down five percent compared to last year). During the last 30 days, Davis has pitched in 12 games (11.1 innings) with a 12:5 K:BB, 7.94 ERA, 4.67 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Hardly inspiring. Ottavino’s not allowed an earned run over his last 14 outings (15 innings) and secured his last three saves along with eight straight holds since June 28th. Suggesting a change from the outside looking in can be easy, seeing how the Rockies respond to Davis’ recent struggles remains to be seen. Read the rest of this entry »