Archive for Outfielders

My fondness of baseball should be quite well known at this point, and if it isn’t, what are you doing here on FanGraphs, but I also enjoy other nerd endeavors, namely video games and esports. In that vein and in honor of Fallout 4 being announced, today’s rankings will be reflective of my favorite games currently in my Steam Library. Take note these aren’t my favorite games of all time, but the ones readily available to play. As always, these rankings reflect what I believe the players will accomplish rest-of-season, not what they’e done to date in a standard 5×5 format. Read the rest of this entry »

After looking at base stealing options last week, today we’ll shift focus to the home run department. Both players on today’s list are mostly available, though they come with flaws attached to their home run potential. Without further ado, let’s take a look at Colby Rasmus and Chris Young. Read the rest of this entry »

In my constant search for stolen bases I tend to hit the waive-wire pretty hard. As such, I often find myself picking up players with sub 10 percent ownership. While some of these names are being pressed into service due to injuries to teammates, some have the potential to stick around for the season. Their rate stats may not be pretty, but most fantasy teams can survive one poor batting average or on-base percentage without losing too much ground. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I posted the AL OF tiered rankings for May and used my favorite films from 2014 as tier labels. In the comments section I briefly discuses with one reader, The Theory, about my enjoyment seeing fellow South Koreans get their shot in Hollywood. I suggest seeing The Good, the Bad, the Weird — currently available on Netflix — as I really enjoyed it.
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Get hyped for another round of AL OF rankings! As usual, these reflect what I believe the hitters will accomplish the rest of the season, not necessarily what they have done thus far. For funsies I’ll be separating the tiers by my favorite films of 2014. Our own Brett Talley thought last year was weak in films, and I strongly disagree.

I really liked a lot of what I saw, but of course I didn’t see everything and some genres aren’t for me. With apologies to The Hobbit and The Hunger Games for me failing to see them, lets dive right in. (Note: I really liked all of the films listed here.)

Whiplash
Mike Trout
Jose Bautista

I really don’t mean to be boring here. I just loved Whiplash and Trout continues and should continue to do Trout things. Bautista jumps up a level because his surrounding cast is incredibly strong. His counting stats could look bonkers at the end of the season, though I am keeping an eye on the uptick in his K%.
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Time for another round of rankings for the American League outfield. As usual, the tiers and rankings reflect 5×5 redraft values for what the I believe the players will accomplish, not necessarily their present (or soon to be) numbers. For example, if someone starts slow, don’t expect them to drop too far. Without further delay, here are the tiers, represented by my favorite Nintendo 64 games.

GoldenEye
Mike Trout

A player in a tier by himself, a nostalgic game in a tier by itself. Instead of droning on and on about Trout —something I could easily do — instead here is a video of the first level accomplished via speedrun.
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I already covered by thoughts on Anthony Gose to nab 40 steals in my 10 bold predictions — so he’s obviously a lock to do so, amirite — but I’ll elaborate a bit more. I love his speed potential and I see Jake Marisnick in a very similar way.
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If opportunity knocks, then Steven Souza is pounding on your door while calling your phone and blowing up your email inbox. I almost included Souza in my 10 bold predictions, but I believe he warrants more than just a quick blurb there.

Traded to the Tampa Bay Rays from the blocked off outfield of the Washington Nationals this off-season, Souza figures to be a staple in either corner for his new club. Now entering his age-26 season, Souza appears to be poised for an under-the-radar impact fantasy season. His skill set — plus playing time — make him a likely four category player. For two consecutive seasons he has nabbed at least 25 steals without being caught more than seven times and hit for at least 15 home runs.
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This is meant to be less of an overly serious analysis as it is an exercise in projecting minor league players in a new and different way. Unfortunately, Chris Mitchell has largely done what I’m about to present, and with more sophistication at that, so I’ll have to strike out the new part. But different? Sure, to an extent.

While Chris’ KATOH predicts a hitter’s probability of major league success by projecting career wins above replacement (WAR) thresholds, my model predicts probability of future success in the context of various career accomplishments: Will he be a better-than-replacement level starter? An All-Star? A future MVP? Ultimately, the exercise is simpler and more qualitative, evaluating strictly AAA stats (rather than all minor league levels, as KATOH does) and making predictions according to various marginal changes in common statistics such as isolated power (ISO), stolen base rate (SB/PA) and age. Think of the model as a series of player comparisons. Also, please think of the model as not a replacement or substitute for KATOH but a complement to it, albeit a less intense one. I will use this tool for analysis, but only infrequently; I recommend you keep up with all of Chris’ KATOH posts (as well as Kiley McDaniels‘ prospect coverage) to fulfill your prospect consumption needs.

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Admittedly we’ll be looking at arbitrary endpoints, specifically first half vs second half splits. I’m generally not one to split up a season like this, however with Josh Reddick, looking at his pre and post-All Star break numbers are worth it.

In total, Reddick has posted a decent albeit not great year. He’s sporting a .254/.310/.430 line, equating to a 111 wRC+. Two separate stints on the disabled list — both due to knee issues — have limited him to 375 plate appearances. Only 11 home runs and sub 50 RBIs and runs isn’t something you’d like to see from a corner outfielder, but there is good reason to hope for him. Read the rest of this entry »