Top Run? Marisnick and Gose

I already covered by thoughts on Anthony Gose to nab 40 steals in my 10 bold predictions — so he’s obviously a lock to do so, amirite — but I’ll elaborate a bit more. I love his speed potential and I see Jake Marisnick in a very similar way.

Anthony Gose has two professional seasons where he’s stolen at least 70 bags under his belt, however both did come in the lower minors. Still, in three parts of big league action he has been successful 34 out of 45 times, good for a 75% success rate. Spread across his 616 plate appearances from 2012-14 Gose has accrued a 5.2 ultimate base running score, though much of that came in 2012. For that time period 348 fellow major leaguers gathered a minimum of 600 plate appearances and Gose’s UBR lands him in the top 50. His 34 raw steals rank tied for 71st, despite the PA equivalent of one full season when compared against as many as three full seasons for other players. No need to remind about the poor correlation of spring training stats to the regular season, but team philosophy is another matter. As stated in my bold predictions piece, the Detroit Tigers ran frequently enough last year to land themselves in the top-10 for team steals. Gose is currently tied for second most steals in spring training with five and the Tigers lead all teams with 23 steals and 32 attempts. A player with history of speed in the minors with the ability to continue running in the show, plus a team with speed that isn’t afraid to run? Goodness, gracious. Come season’s end, 40 steals may not have looked bold enough.

Jake Marisnick has even fewer major league PA’s than Gose, however I’m still somewhat optimistic on his ability to contribute steals this year. Marisnick should get plenty of playing time in the outfield for Houston this year and is center field eligible for those leagues that separate LF/CF/RF. While he never had the huge steal totals Gose did in the minors, Marisnick managed to grab over 25 bags in three seasons across multiple levels. Last year he gathered 35 in Triple-A and the majors, however 24 of those steals came in the minors. He actually owns a -0.3 UBR, but in 105 career games it is hard to definitively say he is a below average runner. Last year in only 65 MLB games Marisnick gathered 11 steals while being thrown out three times. George Springer and Jose Altuve already have what seems like a green light and Marisnick has enough of a track record to be allowed to run some more as well. Add in more playing time and a club that runs even more than the Tigers — Houston’s 122 team steals tied with Cincinnati for third most — could mean a sneaky steals guy with some bite.

Both Gose and Marisnick are being drafted between 340 and 390. For two guys who could end with more than 70 steals between them, both make great late round candidates.





You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.

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Brad Johnsonmember
9 years ago

The issue with Gose is that he appears to be a 1 category guy. I am intrigued with the idea of comboing Rajai and Gose in certain deep leagues.

Danny Cioffari
9 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

gose could leadoff vs RHP, giving him plenty of runs

pirates hurdles
9 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

and you can’t steal 1B. Cliche, bang!

Jonathan Sher
9 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

The bigger issue with Gose is that he is such a poor hitter that he may soon lose his place in the lineup. He had a wRC+ of 73 last year in his third try at the major league level with an ISO of 0.067 and a high k-rate. While the Tigers plan to platoon him so he bats against righties, his record against righties is only marginally better — wRC+ of 84; ISO of .074 and a K-rate of 26%.