Josh Reddick’s Second Half Bounce Back

Admittedly we’ll be looking at arbitrary endpoints, specifically first half vs second half splits. I’m generally not one to split up a season like this, however with Josh Reddick, looking at his pre and post-All Star break numbers are worth it.

In total, Reddick has posted a decent albeit not great year. He’s sporting a .254/.310/.430 line, equating to a 111 wRC+. Two separate stints on the disabled list — both due to knee issues — have limited him to 375 plate appearances. Only 11 home runs and sub 50 RBIs and runs isn’t something you’d like to see from a corner outfielder, but there is good reason to hope for him.

After a dumpster fire of a first half where Reddick posted a miserable .229/.296/.358 line (88 wRC+), many fantasy owners bailed on him. Considering his poor 2013 campaign where he posted a nearly equally poor .226/.307/.379 batting line, it was a semi-justified act to throw him back to the waiver wire. Reddick was dealing with wrist issues throughout most of 2013 and even had off-season surgery to correct it, but it seemed increasingly likely his breakout 2012 season was merely a flash in the pan.

I think there is more of the good Reddick and less of the bad (read: his 2013 + first half of 2014) on the way. Below is a table displaying relevant stats. Reddick gathered 179 PAs in the first half vs 163 thus far in the second, so while the sample size is small, it is at least comparable.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K%	BB%	SwStr%	F-Strike%	wRC+
First half	.229	.296	.358	.280	21.9%	8.2%	9.5%%	61.7%	88
Second half	.282	.326	.509	.275	9.5%	6.7%	7.6%%	57.5%	135

Beyond the big difference in his triple slash leading to gap in wRC+, the strikeout rate tells the biggest story. Curiously Reddick has drawn walks at a lower pace in the second half. He has manged to cut his strikeout rate by almost 60%, so his BB:K ratio improved. Reddick is whiffing less overall as the swinging strike rate claims and pitchers aren’t getting ahead of him as often in the second half.

I’m as surprised as anyone to see a (very) slightly lower BABIP in the second half, so I dove into the batted ball rates for Reddick as well.

	GB%	FB%	HR/FB%
First half	37.8%	44.4%	6.7%
Second half	29.1%	54.1%	8.8%

And now I’m no longer surprised. Reddick has always been an extreme fly ball hitter —  his 31.2% ground ball rate ranks sixth lowest since 2012, similarly his 50% fly ball rate rates as fifth highest — and fly balls have a lower BABIP than ground balls.

Reddick’s wrist issues appear to be behind him and his improved strikeout rate doesn’t appear to be a fluke. Don’t expect him to ever be a .300 hitter as that simply isn’t his game, however he does have value with his power, using his second half SLG as a power indicator. He’ll hit shots to the warning track and cans of corn to the outfielders but as long as he can keep up this improved strikeout rate, I can stomach a few lazy fly balls. Enough fly balls off of his bat clear the outfield walls 0r drop in as doubles for Reddick to be valuable in 12-team mixed leagues.