Archive for outfield

Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

I don’t know how analyze the Cardinals’ outfield in a way that properly acknowledges the significant role the Cardinals’ carved out for Oscar Taveras without marginalizing or trivializing his life and talent nor condoning the cause of his passing. His sudden death shocked the baseball community and left a gaping hole in the St. Louis outfield. Unfortunately, there’s a lot we’ll never know about Taveras, the budding superstar who never was — or, perhaps more accurately, never got to be.

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With the departures of Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig, and with Matt Adams employed full-time at first base, the St. Louis outfield looks thin. But the Cards have a pair of prospects ready to contribute at the Major League level (or close to it), both of whom will likely assume full-time roles in the next couple of years. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ regulars, barring injury, will assume the lion’s share of the starting duties and produce enough offensive and defensive value to warrant their lack of depth — if they stay healthy, that is, and that’s a big “if.”

Left Field: Matt Holliday (Age 35)
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Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted the 10 most “MLB-ready” AAA outfield prospects based on a variety of requirements about which you can read if you click through. The idea was to ignore any kind of prospect labels and strictly let the statistics and hitters’ ages tell the story.

The list is by no means definitive, but Pirates outfielders assumed four of the 10 spots. Their projections weren’t necessarily rosy — they may all end up being bench pieces at best, for all we know — but it doesn’t negate the fact that they may be ready to positively contribute at the Major League level in some capacity. Toss into the mix top prospect Austin Meadows farther down the organizational ladder and it becomes clear that Pittsburgh has enough outfield depth throughout its system to support an ensemble cast that should be together for years to come.

Left Field: Starling Marte (Age 26)
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An unambiguously true fact: Matt Holliday is an old man in baseball years and in dog years. Another unambiguously true fact: Holliday has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Hear ye:

• He has hit at least 20 home runs in nine straight years, a streak currently matched only by David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera;
• His walk rate has hovered between 10 and 12 percent for the better part of a decade, and his strikeout rate has always resided in the mid-teens;
• He has averaged 647 plate appearances per season dating back to 2006;
• And honestly, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a batted ball profile so absurdly consistent.

Yet a slight dip in power and a career-worst batting average (.272, aka what some players can only dream of hitting) in 2014 couldn’t have come at a worse age, and it all has fans and projection systems alike running for the hills, as shown below.
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This is meant to be less of an overly serious analysis as it is an exercise in projecting minor league players in a new and different way. Unfortunately, Chris Mitchell has largely done what I’m about to present, and with more sophistication at that, so I’ll have to strike out the new part. But different? Sure, to an extent.

While Chris’ KATOH predicts a hitter’s probability of major league success by projecting career wins above replacement (WAR) thresholds, my model predicts probability of future success in the context of various career accomplishments: Will he be a better-than-replacement level starter? An All-Star? A future MVP? Ultimately, the exercise is simpler and more qualitative, evaluating strictly AAA stats (rather than all minor league levels, as KATOH does) and making predictions according to various marginal changes in common statistics such as isolated power (ISO), stolen base rate (SB/PA) and age. Think of the model as a series of player comparisons. Also, please think of the model as not a replacement or substitute for KATOH but a complement to it, albeit a less intense one. I will use this tool for analysis, but only infrequently; I recommend you keep up with all of Chris’ KATOH posts (as well as Kiley McDaniels‘ prospect coverage) to fulfill your prospect consumption needs.

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While the Giants have won two World Series titles in the last four years, you simply can’t deny that left field has been a consistent problem spot for them. Sure, they’ve gotten away with some patch jobs like Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Gregor Blanco and even Brandon Belt, but the lack of consistency and a true big bat has been more than prevalent. This season, as you look at the Giants’ depth chart, it’s more of the same. The Giants’ brass has changed the dressing on the wound, but it may only be a short matter of time before it starts to bleed through. Read the rest of this entry »

Today we have the latest batch of American League outfield rankings. There are some prospects climbing in the ranks rapidly as well as some injured veterans plummeting in value.

Tier One
Mike Trout
Chris Davis

No change here, and no real surprise either. An argument could be made that Davis deserves the number one spot, but the steals tip the scale in Trout’s favor. At this point, no one would whine about having either of these guys on their fantasy team.
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Today brings another round of bullish reports. If you’re looking for cheap and readily available outfield help, today is your lucky day.

Brandon Moss
Over the past 14 days, Brandon Moss is 11-for-35 — with five of those hits going for home runs. He also drove in 10 and scored seven runs over that time frame. Following last season’s breakout performance was going to be a difficult task, though he came out swinging in April, May saw him struggle. Many owners on the fence about Moss ditched him during his May slump, and given his .153/.262/.333 line in 84 plate appearances, we shouldn’t be quick to judge those that were quick to drop him. Of course months — and seasons, for that matter — are all arbitrary end points and we can’t get too caught up in them.
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Justin Maxwell (ESPN: 37 percent owned; Yahoo!: 14 percent owned)

If Justin Maxwell were a pitcher instead of an outfielder, his career may have ended before it even really started. While rehabbing in the minors after undergoing Tommy John surgery after the 2010 season, the former 4th round pick torn his labrum diving for a ball in the outfield. It’s a tough enough pair of injuries for a position player to work though, but for a young pitcher, it would have been a far more difficult road back to the majors. Read the rest of this entry »

This week’s American League Stock Watch has a little bit different of a flow. With September right around the corner — and thus September roster expansion and call ups — there should be a strong infusion of minor league talent about to jump onto the scene. To help you get a jump on your leaguemates regarding some of these soon-to-be-available outfielders, here is a list of AL club outfielders that are already on their respective 40-man rosters.

Michael Taylor – He happens to have a top 10 wOBA among Pacific Coast League outfielders and already had a brief stint with the A’s. During his time in Sacramento this year Taylor has amassed 506 plate appearances and although he only has 12 home runs, his triple slash is a robust .289/.406/.449. His power might have waned a bit but his speed is still intact. His SB/CS ratio is a very strong 17/3 mark. His strikeout rate won’t ever impress, but given his combination of plate discipline, still solid power and above average speed, Taylor makes for a potentially intriguing pick up. The only downside to Taylor would be playing time. The A’s are currently juggling Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespdes, and Jonny Gomes on a regular basis. That doesn’t leave too many PA’s for Taylor, especially with the A’s in the playoff hunt and most likely unwilling to give PA’s to a still unproven player.
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When it gets down to the final few rounds of your draft or those last couple of auction dollars, you need to make some smart decisions.  Keeper league owners usually drift towards the minor league hopefuls that could make an impact either this year or next, but for re-draft leagues, it’s about winning now.  Sure, you could take a chance on a prospect and hope to get a second half call-up, but obviously there are no guarantees and the player could be waiver fodder by mid-season, rendering the pick a waste.  You might be better served sifting through some of the major league rosters and finding yourself a couple of utility players who could realistically end up with extra playing time.  It happens almost every year, and the value that some of these guys produce by year’s end could be the difference between a championship squad and an “also-ran”.

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