Two Martes and a MVP: The 2015 Pittsburgh Outfield

Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted the 10 most “MLB-ready” AAA outfield prospects based on a variety of requirements about which you can read if you click through. The idea was to ignore any kind of prospect labels and strictly let the statistics and hitters’ ages tell the story.

The list is by no means definitive, but Pirates outfielders assumed four of the 10 spots. Their projections weren’t necessarily rosy — they may all end up being bench pieces at best, for all we know — but it doesn’t negate the fact that they may be ready to positively contribute at the Major League level in some capacity. Toss into the mix top prospect Austin Meadows farther down the organizational ladder and it becomes clear that Pittsburgh has enough outfield depth throughout its system to support an ensemble cast that should be together for years to come.

Left Field: Starling Marte (Age 26)

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
2014	Pirates	135	545	13	73	56	30	6.1 %	24.0 %	.162	.373	.291	.356	.453
2015	Depth Charts	137	576	13	73	59	28	5.1 %	23.9 %	.161	.345	.273	.329	.433
2015	Fans (33)	139	611	15	73	75	34	5.9 %	23.2 %	.167	.364	.290	.350	.457

Anyone questioning if Marte could repeat his 2013 breakout received a resounding answer in 2014. The two seasons were almost identical from an offensive standpoint. His defense digressed, however, and in a big way: he went from posting 2013’s best defensive season for a qualified left fielder to a merely average one, and his pretty horrible 160 innings in center field pushed him into below-average territory. Fortunately for Marte and fantasy owners, his defense, whether it’s slightly below average or generously above it, will likely bear no influence on his playing time.

And that’s good, because Marte has recorded two straight 10-HR, 30-SB seasons. Only Carlos Gomez can also make that claim. Marte stole exactly 30 bases last season, so it may be a tall order to ask him to do so again, especially in light of evidence that his best baserunning days are likely behind him. But a return to 10-homer, 25-steal glory is more likely than not. His plate discipline, in terms of not only walks and strikeouts but also contact and chase rates, held steady in 2014.

Fans expect Marte to steal bases at a slightly higher rate, which isn’t absurd. But they also expect him to accrue 75 RBI. For context, he recorded 91 RBI in his first two full seasons combined. The fans are bullish, so if you really want Marte, you will probably over-pay for him.

Center Field: Andrew McCutchen (28)

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
2014	Pirates	146	648	25	89	83	18	13.0 %	17.7 %	.228	.355	.314	.410	.542
2015	Depth Charts	150	630	23	89	84	17	11.9 %	17.9 %	.204	.336	.296	.387	.501
2015	Fans (46)	156	685	25	94	107	21	12.7 %	17.2 %	.217	.349	.309	.403	.527

McCutchen is a true five-category contributor and an undisputed first-rounder. What I will do now is try to convince you otherwise. Here goes: McCutchen stole fewer than 20 bases last year for the first time in his career. He was a below-average center fielder, per Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). He recorded a negative weighted value against knuckleballs. He did not bunt for any base-hits. Are you convinced yet?

I do have a legitimate concern: the percentage of pitches McCutchen sees in the zone (Zone%) has continuously declined since his debut. I do not expect that trend to change next year, and neither should you. McCutchen’s chase rate (O-Swing%) is above-average, but it continues to climb as the zone rate falls.

PITCHf/x Plate Discipline
Season	O-Swing%	Zone%
2010	17.7 %	53.1 %
2011	19.7 %	51.5 %
2012	22.7 %	51.6 %
2013	23.7 %	48.2 %
2014	23.7 %	47.4 %

Pitchers are testing McCutchen’s patience more and more — which may be their best bets at success against him rather than letting him put the ball in play. Ultimately, fewer good pitches seen means fewer opportunities for success. I’m not too concerned, but I am intrigued.

Right Field: Gregory Polanco (23)

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
2014	Pirates	89	312	7	50	33	14	9.6 %	18.9 %	.108	.272	.235	.307	.343
2015	Depth Charts	125	525	12	66	57	22	7.2 %	17.0 %	.137	.287	.255	.310	.392
2015	Fans (22)	137	583	13	58	67	27	9.9 %	17.0 %	.135	.305	.267	.341	.402

Despite what happened last year, Polanco is a proficient hitter. Unfortunately, his batting average, and any hopes of a true breakout, sank like a stone in the sea with his .272 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

One would think that a 22-year-old with pop, wheels and roughly league-average plate discipline could post at least a league-average BABIP. The author, by no coincidence, shares this notion and sought to employ the services of the expected BABIP (xBABIP) metric to validate said notion. Indeed: based on his batted ball profile, Polanco’s xBABIP is .315. For the mathematically disinclined, that’s a 43-point difference, or about eight hits. It’s the difference between a miserable .235 batting average and a tolerable .264 — Polanco’s true batting average, according to xBABIP.

What you’re left with is a guy who looks, well, a lot like Starling Marte, as Ben Duronio pointed out last week. Polanco’s more of a Marte Lite, as Marte’s BABIP is one matched by few, but it is reasonable to expect Polanco to reach the coveted 10-homer, 30-steal threshold along with Marte. Seems like you already know that, though, according to the fan projections. Although may I point out that more RBI than runs from a lead-off (or two-hole) hitter is a strange prediction? I digress.

Reserves of Most Relevance: Andrew Lambo (26), Corey Hart (33)
I featured Lambo prominently in my National League outfield prospect piece mentioned in the introduction. Lambo’s top prospect shine has faded the past couple of years, but he fared well last season at Triple-A:

Meanwhile, between AAA seasons, he lopped off a third of his strikeout rate, and his superficial decrease in power (as measured by home runs) masks an ISO and OBP that ranked 6th and 7th in the International League for hitters with at least 250 PAs. […] He’s an intriguing NL-only investment.

As for Hart: 2012 seems like such a long time ago. He lost more than 20 feet on his average home run and fly ball distance since then, and I doubt he’ll ever recover it, given what a nightmare these last two seasons have been in terms of his health. There may still be some pop in his bat — despite the aforementioned 20-foot decrease, he still ranked 61st in the league in home run and fly ball distance, which is well above the median — but it’s anyone’s best guess that his balky knees will ever let us find out.

Reserves of Least Relevance:

Jaff Decker (25) hit .257/.355/.391 with six home runs and seven stolen bases in 409 plate appearances in Indianapolis last year. He refined his approach during his second trip through Triple-A and was once able to hit double-digit home runs, so there’s still room for growth. He’s allegedly in the running for the Pirates’ final bench spot. Steve Lombardozzi (26) offers little in ways of power, speed or anything, really. Not much to see here. Sean Rodriguez (29), he who hit 50 home runs in 724 Triple-A plate appearances for the Angels (ugh), actually smacked double-digit home runs in less than half a season last year. Unfortunately, it took a strikeout every fourth at-bat to get there with nary a base on balls to complement. Jose Tabata (26) under-slugged Victor Martinez’s batting average last year. That’s how little power this guy has. He allegedly worked on a power stroke during winter ball, but when you hit five home runs a year, everything is relative.

One-Man Consensus: The Pirates’ starting outfield is arguably the best in the sport for fantasy purposes. There are, no doubt, other intriguing options upon which to bestow the “best of” title — Miami, Boston, Colorado, San Diego, even the Los Angeles teams despite their sketchy left field situations — but none will put up five-category production like the three M’s (McCutchen, Marte and Marte Lite) in Pittsburgh.