Archive for Nelson Cruz

Last week we did bold predictions. As a commenter on my post pointed out, the majority of the staff’s predictions were of the positive nature. More “player x will reach or exceed y” than “player x will fail to reach y.” My predictions were ten guys who I think could give you starter-level production in 12-team mixed leagues despite not being ranked as a starter by a single expert whose rankings are compiled by FantasyPros.com.

Today I’ll do the opposite and identify at least one hitter from each position who is ranked as a starter by every FantasyPros expert that I think might not end up with starter-level production. To be clear, these predictions do not come with the claim of being bold, although I think some of them are. And I’m also not of the opinion that most of these will come true. But even if these guys don’t turn out to be busts, they are candidates to underperform and are guys I’ll likely be avoiding.

If you’d like to see my personal ranks, both overall and positional, I’ve got them in a Google doc here. Read the rest of this entry »

Average Draft Position or ADP is very valuable. I weighed NFBC’s ADP into my personal NFBC Draft Champion rankings equally to my position-adjusted composite projections (Baseball HQ combined with RotoChamp composites (Steamer, ZIP’s, etc.)) and the results were great. I used this, our pitcher arsenal scores and these hitter analytics  as my three main draft tools.

I wanted to take evaluating draft position one step further. I want to understand how consistent each player is drafted near their ADP.

Howard Bender, who manages Mock Draft Army provided me with the raw draft results of 19 expert drafts (NFBC format: 2c-1b-2b-3b-ss-ci-mi-5of-9p). It’s not the largest sample, but they are expert drafts, and the drafts that I have taken part in definitely provided great references.

The Approach:

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Mike Podhorzer and Chad Young embarked on a journey–quest to find an offensive expected (x)HR/FB rate.

Based on batted ball distance and angle, you can go to Baseball Heatmaps (BHM) and find expected versus actual homers or verify HR/FB ratios through HR+FB average distance.

Here’s an uber simple descriptive balls-in-play (BIP) expected homer (xHR) formula:

xHR = PA*Contact%*OFFB%*HR/FB. Looking at the outcomes from last year we have the following list first ordered by the most likely regressions:

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It’s official. 100% of my value is bothering @jeffwzimmerman to run data and then use that data for said content. I did just that this morning for updated shift data. I believe the last time he posted related content on RotoGraphs was here back in May looking at: Early Hitter Shift Data.

It was because of this post and his balls in play (groundball and pop-up rates) that led me to believe Albert Pujols was going to drop off/continue his downward trend. I guess I pushed out the fact that he was the best hitter of his generation. While the .375 BABIP (from the above link) against shifts did not last, he’s at a very respectable .284. Between this and additional discipline (best contact rate since 2008 and hacking less at stuff outside of the zone), he is able to hover around a .280 BA, which remains elite in conjunction with 30HR, 90R and 100+RBI.

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While Nelson Cruz might be one of the least favorite of available free agents among nerd faces, it’s hard to ignore what he does rather consistently for your fantasy squad — and that’s hit home runs and drive in runs all while hitting for a decent average. The often injured (or suspended as it were) outfielder has posted an ISO below .240 just once in the last five seasons and has yet to hit below .260 as a major league regular. Cruz has hit 135 home runs in the past five years and he’s really only played a full season once.

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Yesterday I covered the bottom half of the list here, numbers 10 through 6.  Some solid speculation on some people’s part in the comments section as to who made the top five, so without further ado…

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– Dog bites man, taxes are collected, and Nelson Cruz has a hamstring problem. Cruz’s season hasn’t been what fantasy owners were hoping for — especially in OBP or OPS leagues — but at least he’s already made it through 113 games. Cruz is a good example of the fantasy replacement level principle: when you draft him, you get his usually outstanding production for 100 games, and then replacement level production when he goes on the DL. It’s not like you don’t get to have someone take his spot in the lineup after he gets hurt. Certain owners take advantage of this every year, draft Cruz a round or two early while understanding they won’t be getting a full season from him. Cruz isn’t a youngster anymore, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he slipped a bit in drafts next season. If he does, someone’s probably getting a good deal.

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Earlier today, Jason rolled out our outfield rankings for the American League and upon scanning the list, I was left rather dissatisfied, like watching an episode of 30 Rock without Tracy Morgan getting the crazy eyes. For all of the talent in the outfield, there’s really only one guy that is being considered in the first round, and that’s not even a sure thing. It seems disingenuous to call outfield a thin position but when you need three outfielders, that means a minimum of 36 of these guys will be starting for someone, so you best find a couple towards the top.

Carl Crawford

The $142 million dollar man was mostly known for his legs, but being dropped into a batting order with some bonafide thuggery means he’s not necessarily going to need to be standing on second base to score anymore. No doubt Crawford will run, but his steals could dip south of 40 sans urgency and in an effort to preserve the investment (although he stole two in their game yesterday). Despite that, 100 runs is almost a guarantee and he is almost as likely to hit better than .300 and drive in 75-80 runs while giving you HR’s in the teens. That’s a spicy meatball.

Josh Hamilton

Josh Hamilton did his Hulk-smash thing for 133 games and made owners drool over the possibility of a full season of production. But no two words have more readily appeared in a player analysis than ‘if healthy’ to describe the fortunes of Hamilton headed into 2011. If he can stay on the field, he’d produce like a first rounder. But that he’s prone to injury is no secret, and it’s only the gambling sort of manager that will select him early in the second round, where he’s currently projected. I’ve seen age mentioned as another reason to be concerned about Hamilton, but he’s only 3 months older than the guy that tops this list, and he’s still a year junior to the likes of Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz, and Matt Holliday, and you don’t read a lot about their length of tooth too much.

Can he repeat what he did in 2010?  Probably not.  But give him 130 games and he can give you a .300 batting average with close to 30 home runs and triple digit RBI. But there’s about as good a chance he has 350 PA’s as 700, so have your nerve pills handy.

Shin-Soo Choo

The guy with the name that my kid loves to say, Choo is kind of an understated version of Matt Kemp with a more reliable batting average. He has become a proverbial take-it-to-the-bank .300 BA, 20 homers, 20 steals hitter which doesn’t arouse visions of rocket’s red glare, but you’re not going to find too many outfielders with the ability to check all five boxes the way Choo does. If some of the Cleveland kids can stay healthy enough (Grady Sizemore, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera), Choo ought to flirt with triple digit RBI as well as 85+ runs. No longer the sleeper pick, he’s coming off the board in the late 3rd/early 4th in most mixed, so if you’re a believer, you’ll have to pay for it.

Nelson Cruz

If I were feeling particularly impish, I’d just say “See Josh Hamilton” here. All the same things apply for the two Rangers. But I have to say that I enjoy watching Cruz hit because he inflicts pain on the ball like he’s the Clubber Lang of the Nation’s pastime. He hits for high average, drives in oodles of runs, and perhaps because of a reckless style of play, gets hurt frequently. You really have to plan on no more than 125 games with Cruz, and yet even in that number of games, he’s capable of hitting .290, pushing 30 home runs and 100 RBI. What’s even better is he’ll steal you 20 bags in between all the visits to the trainers room. However, I’d have to think there will come a time when he stops running so much to try and stave off some of the injuries, and that time might be 2011, so plan accordingly.

Jose Bautista

What he does for an encore after the whole Babe Ruth act, I don’t know. So much has been written about Bautista going into 2011, that I’m loath to add to it, so let’s just state the obvious: he’s unlikely to repeat those home runs, it’s entirely possible that he turns into some version of the guy he was with the Pirates, and it’s probably smart to plan on something in between the old and the new Jose. This leaves you with a risky pick, but a guy that ought to hit for a middling average, 30 home runs, and 90/90 runs/RBI. That he will be eligible for third base probably means that he won’t be in too many fantasy outfields, but nevertheless, the versatility is a plus.

It’s been a little while since we did the first outfielders, and some things have changed. Let’s update these with to-date wOBAs and ZiPs RoS wOBAs and injury information and all that jazz, shan’t we?

The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.442 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.355 wOBA, .373 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.350 wOBA, .380 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Justin Upton is on comeback trail. He’s having a .310/.347/.577 kind of a May which pulls him back into this top-three territory. For those that would like to penalize him for his batting average / strikeout issues, it looks like he either has contact skills that can prop up a decent average or he’s streaky enough to make the final tally look fine. And the counting stats are looking fine – his ZiPs Update has him at 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases. That’s not bad. In fact, it’s good.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.445 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.384 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.368 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.354 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.372 wOBA, .377 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

While Justin Upton doesn’t have the lengthy history to ‘prove’ his batting average risk, Nelson Cruz does. He’s come a long way to even get to this point, really. But we know the strikeouts will bring that average down, so don’t go counting on a .301 batting average to last. The rest of the guys on this list are providing stats in multiple categories despite a tiny bit of disappointment in most cases. A stolen base tear or a little power burst, and they’ll turn in seasons like any other on their resumes.

Hurt But Still Good?
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.507 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.366 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.315 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.256 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

New tier for these guys, who are testing patience across the country. Granderson is close to coming back, as he was shagging fly balls recently. Ellsbury played a rehab game, too. Those two represent decent buy-low candidates. You might want to wait for news on Sizemore’s knee – surgery was rumored – before you go poking around on his availability.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.373 wOBA, .368 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.441 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Josh Hamilton and Jayson Werth both look like they are a healthy month away from jumping tiers. Werth is playing a little above his head, but all that contract talk is probably making him salivate. Andre Ethier was leading the triple-crown categories, but maybe he should be in the hurt category. People should be pardoned for being a little skeptical about his huge ISO, given his history. His BABIP should fall, too. There could be some flip-flopping between this tier and the second one with some sustained play.

Missing Something?
Jason Bay, New York NL (.346 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.306 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.365 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.394 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA))

McCutchen is moving his way up, but ISO stabilizes latest so we have to be careful about how much we move him up. It’s still possible he belongs with speedsters Michael Bourn and Brett Gardner below. Adam Lind and Nick Markakis in the meantime are moving their way down until they can prove they have some one fantasy tool that we can latch on to. They still have some history to call back on, or else they’d have dropped further.

Upside to Join the Top
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.316 wOBA, .337 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.304 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.340 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner (.391 wOBA, .332 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

The elder Upton’s strikeout rate seems to be the harbinger of a poor batting average, as does Quentin’s poor line drive rate. Michael Bourn just doesn’t have any power, or he’d move up the list himself. Stolen bases are rare enough that some speed-only guys can make their way into the elite, but we do expect some power before they can join the elite of the elite. Brett Gardner is a borderline guy himself until someone drops out, for example. There maybe some movement here in this tier between OF1 and OF2.

Every season we have unexpected hot starts from a multitude of players around the Majors. Some are for real, some are just a tease. The home run is one of the more valuable fantasy categories in many leagues. Let’s take a look at the Top 10 home run hitters in the Majors and try to sort out who’s legit and who’s going to make novice fantasy players look silly in the long run.

At the beginning of the season, I would have called you insane for telling me Vernon Wells would be leading the Majors in homers. After all, he’s coming off of three pretty lousy seasons (1.5 WAR or worse). But I’ve seen him with my own eyes quite a few times this season and that swing is for real. The outfielder had wrist surgery this past off-season, for an issue that had been dogging for, well, apparently for about three years. His approach still makes me cringe, as he pulls absolutely everything (even wild pitches headed for the first base dugout), so his average is probably going to suffer. As long pitchers keep making mistakes out and over the plate, though, Wells is going to cream pitches for doubles and homers.

I’ve been touting Matt Kemp as a 2010 breakout candidate for a while now and it looks like he might be ready to make me look smart. He’s hitting for power and average, while also driving in most of L.A.’s runs (20 in 14 games). He has a legit shot at a 30-30 season if he improves his stolen base rate.

Mr. Late Bloomer Nelson Cruz is out to prove that his ’09 season was not a fluke. He’s going to strikeout a fair bit and he probably isn’t going to hit .300, but a 30+ homer season is definitely within reason. Oh, and check out the three steals… another 20+ SB season, would certainly make him an even more attractive fantasy player.

If you think Wells is a shocking addition to the home run leader board, you’re probably on the floor with a tingly left side now that you’ve seen Jose Guillen’s name on the board. I mean, it’s almost like his contract is up or somethi- What? Oh. Guillen is currently hitting like a man possessed, but who knows if or when the streak will end. Enjoy it while it lasts and don’t feel bad for picking him up and riding the hot bat. (And yes, I know he apparently almost died last year from a clot).

I don’t think we really need to get too in-depth here with Chase Utley. He’s the best offensive second baseman on the planet (and a pretty nifty defender to boot). End of story.

Uh, well, the same thing goes for Mr. Pujols. The home runs are no surprise and they should not let up any time soon. The scary thing is that he’s actually kind of slumping right now. And it says a lot about his talent when we consider a .423 wOBA a slump…

Apparently nobody told Dustin Pedroia that 5’9” second basemen are not supposed to hit homers. He’s hit some dingers in the past, but he’s on pace for more than 20 homers this season. Alex Gonzalez opened the season with a real bang. His power output has slowed down somewhat over the past week but he still has five homers and eight doubles. He has hit more than 20 homers in a season, so the home-run burst is not that out of character.

Colby Rasmus is showing everyone why you should never count out a top prospect after a rough rookie season. The power is for real. Konerko is no longer a .280-.300 hitter like he was in his prime, but the 34 year old is proving that he still has some pop left in the tank. You should not be surprised to see Mark Reynolds‘ name on this list.