Home Run Hitters: Who’s For Real?
Every season we have unexpected hot starts from a multitude of players around the Majors. Some are for real, some are just a tease. The home run is one of the more valuable fantasy categories in many leagues. Let’s take a look at the Top 10 home run hitters in the Majors and try to sort out who’s legit and who’s going to make novice fantasy players look silly in the long run.
At the beginning of the season, I would have called you insane for telling me Vernon Wells would be leading the Majors in homers. After all, he’s coming off of three pretty lousy seasons (1.5 WAR or worse). But I’ve seen him with my own eyes quite a few times this season and that swing is for real. The outfielder had wrist surgery this past off-season, for an issue that had been dogging for, well, apparently for about three years. His approach still makes me cringe, as he pulls absolutely everything (even wild pitches headed for the first base dugout), so his average is probably going to suffer. As long pitchers keep making mistakes out and over the plate, though, Wells is going to cream pitches for doubles and homers.
I’ve been touting Matt Kemp as a 2010 breakout candidate for a while now and it looks like he might be ready to make me look smart. He’s hitting for power and average, while also driving in most of L.A.’s runs (20 in 14 games). He has a legit shot at a 30-30 season if he improves his stolen base rate.
Mr. Late Bloomer Nelson Cruz is out to prove that his ’09 season was not a fluke. He’s going to strikeout a fair bit and he probably isn’t going to hit .300, but a 30+ homer season is definitely within reason. Oh, and check out the three steals… another 20+ SB season, would certainly make him an even more attractive fantasy player.
If you think Wells is a shocking addition to the home run leader board, you’re probably on the floor with a tingly left side now that you’ve seen Jose Guillen’s name on the board. I mean, it’s almost like his contract is up or somethi- What? Oh. Guillen is currently hitting like a man possessed, but who knows if or when the streak will end. Enjoy it while it lasts and don’t feel bad for picking him up and riding the hot bat. (And yes, I know he apparently almost died last year from a clot).
I don’t think we really need to get too in-depth here with Chase Utley. He’s the best offensive second baseman on the planet (and a pretty nifty defender to boot). End of story.
Uh, well, the same thing goes for Mr. Pujols. The home runs are no surprise and they should not let up any time soon. The scary thing is that he’s actually kind of slumping right now. And it says a lot about his talent when we consider a .423 wOBA a slump…
Apparently nobody told Dustin Pedroia that 5’9” second basemen are not supposed to hit homers. He’s hit some dingers in the past, but he’s on pace for more than 20 homers this season. Alex Gonzalez opened the season with a real bang. His power output has slowed down somewhat over the past week but he still has five homers and eight doubles. He has hit more than 20 homers in a season, so the home-run burst is not that out of character.
Colby Rasmus is showing everyone why you should never count out a top prospect after a rough rookie season. The power is for real. Konerko is no longer a .280-.300 hitter like he was in his prime, but the 34 year old is proving that he still has some pop left in the tank. You should not be surprised to see Mark Reynolds‘ name on this list.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Dustin Pedroia isn’t 5’9″. Had to be said.
Hmmm…Kemp went 18/35 in ’08 and 26/34 in ’09…pretty sure he “broke out” a while ago…
Seriously – bold prediction on Kemp there. He was a 5-win player last year and hit 26 homers to go along with 30 stolen bases. 30/30 wouldn’t be a breakout but a slight improvement for one of the best young hitters in the game.
Yeah hate to beat a dead horse but come on Marc, 2010 is Kemp’s “breakout” year? He was a consensus Top 10 pick in fantasy drafts this year (top 7 in every draft I saw), how exactly does someone that highly regarded “break out”? If you watched more than a couple Dodger games last year it was easy to tell he was already the best player on the team.
So is the answer to the question posed by this post that all of these guys are legit except for maybe Jose Guillen?
Guillen is pretty unlikely to maintain that HR rate but just two years ago he drove in 90+ and is hitting in the cleanup spot after 3 guys who’ve been setting the table pretty well. I had him 2 years ago when he went on a homer binge just before the break and he’s definitely worth using while he’s hot. When not he’s a decent bench player for deeper leagues (we play 5 OF in a 12 team mixed league).
For some reason he just keeps finding his way onto my roster for stretches of time each year. He is one of those guys that just keep showing back up like a bad penny.
a 40-25 season seems more likely for Kemp with 45-35 at the potential peak.
Matt Kemp has 7 homeruns yet only 4 doubles, and a 33% HR/FB rate. Somehow I don’t think that he is going to have any different of a season than last year, which is still very good, but not good enough to be taken in the top 10.
Have you seen where the homers are going? Right center. His power is ridiculous.
It’s important to note that Cruz’s 3 steals came against Tim Wakefield and Victor Martinez. Jared (the “before Subway diet” version) could have stolen 3 bags against those 2 guys.
pedroia 5’9″ ?? try 5’2″.
pedroia standing next to albie pearson makes old albie look like wilt chamberlain.
get pedroia to hairplaceone and maybe he can add
2″ in height with his new weave.
All hail the great Marc Hulet for predicting the breakout of Matt Kemp! Other predictions were Ryan Braun and David Wright. Well done, sir. Stick to the minors.
i told everyone chase utley would be breaking out this year
Andruw Jones doesn’t show up on Fangraphs leaderboards as qualified, but he now stands at 6 home runs. Intriguing.