Archive for Michael Cuddyer

Earlier this week, Jeff Zimmerman presented Early 2015 Hitter Projections using Steamer and/or ZIPS averaged ROS projections. The main contingency at this time: all values are set to 600 plate appearances. If I had all the time in the world, I would go through the list and manually adjust the PA based on lineup position, career PA/G, etc, but I’m not that much of a Mensch.

The next day, Mike Podhorzer highlighted some of the surprises ranked in the top 30. Again the 600 PA contingency is clear as Rajai Davis, Jarrod Dyson and Corey Dickerson make the list although if Dickerson doesn’t get platooned, I (and Mike) think he’ll surpass expectations. His splits page tells us there is no good reason to platoon him.

In Mike’s intro, he also referenced that there is no adjustment for position in Jeff’s SGP rankings. That’s where this post comes in.

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As a fantasy manager, you look at Michael Cuddyer’s 2013 season statistics and there should be giant flashing red lights around this number: .382. That’s Cuddyer’s BABIP. Granted, he earned a good deal of that given his hit trajectory which was a fairly tidy 20/50/30 LD/GB/FB, producing a .355 expected BABIP. But for a soon to be 35-year old with a career BABIP rate of .312, we should all probably temper our expectations for 2014.

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When it comes to the Colorado Rockies, the standard practice in fantasy baseball is to draft the hitters and avoid the pitchers. And it is as true today as it was back in 1993 when the organization played its very first game as an MLB franchise. We’ve already covered the team’s outfield and rotation, so it’s time to discuss the infield now. For the most part, you’ll want to give it a look when mapping out your draft strategy, however, it might not be the offensive powerhouse you were hoping for. Read the rest of this entry »

In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.

The Rockies’ outfield projects to provide ample fantasy value this upcoming season. In 2012, their outfield combined to compile a .286/.349/.482 slash line, and their combined .357 wOBA ranked the best in all of baseball. And with both Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler in their respective primes, it doesn’t appear fantasy owners should be shying away from the Rocky Mountain Outfield on draft day anytime soon.

Despite the fact that Dexter Fowler appears to have the center field position on lockdown, the depth chart isn’t devoid of potential movement. The Rockies still could have a handful of players jockeying for playing time at the corner outfield positions if everything breaks correctly, and as always, injuries will ultimately play a factor in how many at-bats are available to players.

Here are some storylines to which fantasy owners should be paying attention this upcoming season.

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It’s been less than  a month since the Twins fired Bill Smith and replaced him with new GM Terry Ryan and after just two quick moves in free agency, the Twins roster looks to be a taking a different shape for 2012.  The signing of Jamey Carroll and subsequent announcement of him as the team’s new starting shortstop put the incumbent middle infielders on official notice while the signing of Ryan Doumit sheds some light on the club’s confidence in DL regulars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and possible departure of other free agents.  We’ve already had Dan Wade cover Carroll and the infield and Chris Cwik has given his thoughts on Doumit’s situation, but how about the team beyond?  What does this mean for Mauer and Morneau?  Does Doumit’s signing put an official end to Michael Cuddyer’s and Jason Kubel’s tenure in Minnesota?  And finally, what does all of this mean for fantasy owners?

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There are a few hot hands at the hot corner worth mentioning, and for anyone without a dead team, you know that third base hasn’t exactly been the deepest position in 2011. I’m not going to take a stab at what these gentlemen may produce from here on out, leaving that to the rest-of-the-season-machines, but I wanted to shed light on a few emerging developments over at the five.

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Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield.  You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here.  As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA.  I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.

Middle Infield

Elite Three (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it):

Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75

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Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, and left fielders.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

The tier-of-his-own player in right field is Justin Upton, and I doubt there will be too much grumbling about this ranking for a guy who hit .300 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his firs full year. Sure, we may talk a little about his high BABIP (.364), but for now let’s just look at the fan projections and sigh.

That should end the easy portion of our rankings today. Perhaps this is just a little self-pity in anticipation of the comments thread, but the next two tiers could be a single tier, or could be three tiers, and could probably be re-arranged ad infinitum. We’ll give Ichiro! Suzuki credit for his BABIP and (sexy) infield-hitting prowess which are perfect for the right fantasy team.

Now come the players that are impossible to rank. Where do you put a guy like Nelson Cruz, who will give you great power and speed, but will hurt your batting average? Could he be any more different from Shin-Soo Choo, who is is solid across the board but won’t win you a single category? Bobby Abreu is in the Choo-mold, but we’ll move him back a little for the waning power and, to be frank, his old age and body type. It hasn’t hurt him yet, but someday, well it just has to. Right?

I don’t think blame can be attributed for seeing a separation after Abreu. While Nick Markakis is a metronome, his steady ticking doesn’t provide much beyond a .300 average and 20 home runs. The steals in 2007 have proved to be an aberration, and while he may get a power spike some year, there’s no way to predict it. Andre Ethier should, with a better BABIP (.292 in 2009, .316 xBABIP, .322 career BABIP), have a better batting average next year, but is the power real? When Bill James shaves seven home runs off your total, you should take notice. He may not hit 40+% fly balls next year. Some will complain about Jayson Werth’s placement, because he certainly looks like a Nelson-Cruz-lite, and they might be right. But Werth has had issues with staying on the field, and with his batting average and strikeout issues, the tier seems right.

Jay Bruce may just zoom up the charts next year and make his ranking seem silly, but at least the fans are backing my sense that we should temper our enthusiasm on the young slugger just a tad. He does seem like a great upside play, better than the young but inconsistent Hunter Pence behind him, who has seemingly showed us his best already. Brad Hawpe has some strikeout issues, some defense issues, and never really showed the power we thought he might. Forgive me for not believing in the simultaneous spike in both flyball rate (39.6% in 2009, 35.7% career) and HR/FB (17.1% in 2009, 12.9% career) and agreeing with the projections that say Michael Cuddyer’s power may subside next year.

The last tier is not very exciting in my mind. Nick Swisher’s batting average ranges from awful to terrible, Jermaine Dye is getting older and posted a six-year low in line drive percentage (16.9%), Garrett Jones was a 28-year-old rookie who had done nothing before 2007 in the minor leagues, and Magglio Ordonez, well we all saw what happened there. In fact, I would rather wait until the end of the draft to pick someone off of the “just off” list, so the Deep League Value piece this Sunday will feature some gems.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Adam LaRoche and trade Derek Lowe last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Andre Ethier – With Manny Ramirez in the lineup, Ethier had a .317/.438/.558 line. Once Ramirez was suspended, Ethier’s numbers fell to .222/.293/.438. But as you may have heard, Manny is back now and hopefully Ethier’s production picks up, too. Ethier is also being slowed by a .264 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .323 and he had a .336 mark last season.

Charlie Morton – He has been very productive in Triple-A the past two seasons but struggled last year during his MLB debut. He fell behind Tommy Hanson and others in the Braves pecking order but now has a new lease on life in Pittsburgh. Morton averages 91.6 with his fastball and he complements that with both a slider and a changeup. He throws ground balls, keeps the ball in the park and gets a few more strikeouts than you might expect. Morton has a 5.82 K/9, which while lower than his minor league numbers, is consistent with the 5.79 K/9 he put up in 16 games with Atlanta last season.

Martin Prado – Atlanta’s super sub has not fallen off since taking over the full-time second base job. In his last 10 starts, Prado has a .405/.457/.667 line. He has third base eligibility from last year and depending on your league settings, he might qualify at 1B (19) and 2B (14), too. Prado’s BABIP seems high at .329 but he has a lifetime .340 mark in the category.

Ryan Sadowski – The first thing that jumps out at you with the Giants rookie is the 4.17 GB/FB ratio in his first two major league starts. In Triple-A this year he had a 47.6 percent ground ball ratio compared to 29.8 percent fly balls. The Giants rank fifth in the NL in DER with a .703 mark and sixth overall in UZR with a 22.9 rating. And with Juan Uribe taking over at 2B, the Giants have a stronger infield defense than earlier in the season. Sadowski does not have star potential but he could be a nice option to fill out the back of your pitching staff. Scott Ostler in the San Francisco Chronicle had a nice story recently on Sadowski and his path to the majors.

Gordon Beckham – The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham hit 28 homers in 275 at-bats in his junior season at Georgia. After a slow start in the majors, Beckham is batting .405-2-8 in his last 10 games. The big question coming out of college was if Beckham could play SS in the majors. Right now he is settling in as the starting 3B for the White Sox. His power will be nothing special for a 3B but he hit .322 in parts of two seasons in the upper minors and he could be a four-category contributor, with only a limited value in SB.

Exchange

Aaron Rowand – He had a career year in 2007 thanks to a personal-best .348 BABIP. This year he checks in with a .368 mark in the category. In addition to hitting .309, 2007 was such a good year because he hit 27 HR. Rowand should easily top last year’s mark of 13, but updated ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 16. He is not a force in any of the other categories, so trade him while his AVG is flirting with .300

Nick Blackburn – It is tough to succeed consistently while striking out fewer than four batters per game and that is the tightrope that Blackburn walks. Currently, his ERA sits at 2.94 thanks to a 76.3 percent strand rate and a HR/FB mark of 6.5 percent. Right now Blackburn is a plus pitcher in three categories and now is the time to trade him while his value is highest.

Hideki Matsui – After being forced to the bench for eight straight Interleague games, Matsui has been on a mini hot streak, batting .500-3-10 in his last six games. But Matsui’s value is being propped up by a career-best 16.9 percent HR/FB ratio. His .253 ISO is also a career-high and only the third time in his seven-year career he has been over .200 in the category. Matsui has room for improvement in his AVG but is likely to drop off in HR while his R/RBI numbers are nothing special. And since he is limited to DH duty, Matsui faces limits on his playing time, especially if Jorge Posada’s thumb needs extra time off from behind the plate.

Jair Jurrjens – He has lost five of his last six decisions yet Jurrjens has seen his ERA go up only 0.37 runs in that span. But Jurrjens has been a little lucky, too. After allowing a FB% of 26.5 percent last year, in 2009 that number is 40.5 percent. But his HR/FB is 5.4 percent, the eighth-lowest mark in the majors. In addition to the good fortune with homers, Jurrjens has a 75.9 percent strand rate and a .279 BABIP. So, while everyone else focuses on his run support (two runs or fewer in nine of 18 games), be aware that his ERA and WHIP are likely to rise in the coming months.

Michael Cuddyer – ESPN shows Cuddyer on track to hit 27 HR, which would be a career-high for him. He is hitting slightly fewer fly balls than he did last year but the homers are coming thanks to a 17.6 percent HR/FB ratio, which would be (you guessed it) a personal-best.

The Minnesota Twins are not known for their outfield. The team’s big league outfielder core sports a combined OPS under .800 that puts the group in the bottom tier of major league outfields. With such a flawed group, the way the teams uses their assets will be very important, so let’s take a look at how each is being used and how they should be used.

Denard Span – Span has elbowed his way into a solid position on this team by being pretty good at everything. His solid approach at the plate (12.3% walk rate, 16.5% strikeout rate) has continued, and his 15.9% reach percentage is 12th in the league and close to elite status. He’s much better against lefties (.914 OPS) than righties (.768 OPS), but beggars can’t be choosers.

Unfortunately for the Twins and Span, his defense is not elite. Span’s UZR at center field this year is 30 runs under average, and he really should only be used on the corners according to the numbers. In 2008, he was 43 runs in the negative in center field. Yeah, he’s getting better with the glove, but Span is a corner outfielder that hits like a center fielder. In this group, though, he probably should be an everyday starter.

Delmon Young – Here’s another Twinkie outfielder that hits like a center fielder, and the last time he played center field (2007 in Tampa Bay), he cost his team almost 45 runs per 150 games according to his UZR rating. Young is not the answer in CF, either.

The rest of his Young’s game does not emulate Span’s. Young has improved his reach rate from 50.3% in his debut to 34.4% this year, but the new number is still on par with such ‘disciplined’ luminaries as Jeff Francoeur and Jose Lopez. With a line drive number that has decreased every year in the majors, and a strike out rate over 30% this year, both the short-term and long-term views of Young’s career have plenty of warts. Moving to Minnesota has also been famously terrible for his power, and his fly ball rates have continued to drop this year. An almost-decent fly ball rate of 32.6% in Tampa has turned into a terrible 24% rate this year.

The only thing worth pointing to in Young’s resume is that his decent speed has led to a career BABIP of .345 that seems steady at this point. With a nice BABIP like that, he should be able to maintain good batting averages, and ZiPS agrees by projecting him to hit .285 from here on out. Since he offers so little everywhere else, fantasy owners should be rooting for a trade, or looking for a trade partner in their league. Some people still like Young.

Michael Cuddyer – With a career slugging percentage of .446, Cuddyer is the slugger in this outfield. He’s having a good year and seems to be recovered from his myriad health issues from last year.

Earlier in his career he struck out a little too much but he’s now settled into a sub-20% level. He reaches a bit (25.1% career), and right now he’s making contact with 66% of the balls he swings at outside the zone. With a career contact rate at 53.6%, this number may point to some coming whiffs. Another negative is that Cuddyer is in the middle of a three-year decline in fly balls. He’ll need to loft the ball a little more in order to keep getting the ball out of the yard – his 18.6% HR/FB rate is an unsustainable career high, in other words.

All of this said, something in between his 2006 and 2007 levels of production are almost certainly on the way, meaning he’ll end up with a batting average around .280 and a decent home run total. That’s another every day starter for you, and a solid starter in leagues any deeper than standard mixed leagues.

Carlos Gomez – The reason for this article has been Gomez’ ‘improving’ play recently. So far in May, he’s gone .250/.327/.354, which counts as a solid jump up from his .195/.250/.293 slash line in April. He’s done so by improving his walk rate to 8.2% and his reach rate from 36.8% to a more decent 25.2% level so far this year.

The question might still be, though, if a center fielder putting up even his improved walk rate can succeed if striking out 22.5% of the time and not showing any power. Sure, his defense in center field is the best of the bunch (15.6 UZR/150 career), but he’s currently a negative on offense. Right now, his best value would be as a defensive replacement in center field, but he’s young and the team will continue to run him out there and cost the more valuable Cuddyer, Young and Span at-bats for no real good reason. If that changes, though, Cuddyer and Span should get a nudge up in your rankings.