Twinkies in the Outfield

The Minnesota Twins are not known for their outfield. The team’s big league outfielder core sports a combined OPS under .800 that puts the group in the bottom tier of major league outfields. With such a flawed group, the way the teams uses their assets will be very important, so let’s take a look at how each is being used and how they should be used.

Denard Span – Span has elbowed his way into a solid position on this team by being pretty good at everything. His solid approach at the plate (12.3% walk rate, 16.5% strikeout rate) has continued, and his 15.9% reach percentage is 12th in the league and close to elite status. He’s much better against lefties (.914 OPS) than righties (.768 OPS), but beggars can’t be choosers.

Unfortunately for the Twins and Span, his defense is not elite. Span’s UZR at center field this year is 30 runs under average, and he really should only be used on the corners according to the numbers. In 2008, he was 43 runs in the negative in center field. Yeah, he’s getting better with the glove, but Span is a corner outfielder that hits like a center fielder. In this group, though, he probably should be an everyday starter.

Delmon Young – Here’s another Twinkie outfielder that hits like a center fielder, and the last time he played center field (2007 in Tampa Bay), he cost his team almost 45 runs per 150 games according to his UZR rating. Young is not the answer in CF, either.

The rest of his Young’s game does not emulate Span’s. Young has improved his reach rate from 50.3% in his debut to 34.4% this year, but the new number is still on par with such ‘disciplined’ luminaries as Jeff Francoeur and Jose Lopez. With a line drive number that has decreased every year in the majors, and a strike out rate over 30% this year, both the short-term and long-term views of Young’s career have plenty of warts. Moving to Minnesota has also been famously terrible for his power, and his fly ball rates have continued to drop this year. An almost-decent fly ball rate of 32.6% in Tampa has turned into a terrible 24% rate this year.

The only thing worth pointing to in Young’s resume is that his decent speed has led to a career BABIP of .345 that seems steady at this point. With a nice BABIP like that, he should be able to maintain good batting averages, and ZiPS agrees by projecting him to hit .285 from here on out. Since he offers so little everywhere else, fantasy owners should be rooting for a trade, or looking for a trade partner in their league. Some people still like Young.

Michael Cuddyer – With a career slugging percentage of .446, Cuddyer is the slugger in this outfield. He’s having a good year and seems to be recovered from his myriad health issues from last year.

Earlier in his career he struck out a little too much but he’s now settled into a sub-20% level. He reaches a bit (25.1% career), and right now he’s making contact with 66% of the balls he swings at outside the zone. With a career contact rate at 53.6%, this number may point to some coming whiffs. Another negative is that Cuddyer is in the middle of a three-year decline in fly balls. He’ll need to loft the ball a little more in order to keep getting the ball out of the yard – his 18.6% HR/FB rate is an unsustainable career high, in other words.

All of this said, something in between his 2006 and 2007 levels of production are almost certainly on the way, meaning he’ll end up with a batting average around .280 and a decent home run total. That’s another every day starter for you, and a solid starter in leagues any deeper than standard mixed leagues.

Carlos Gomez – The reason for this article has been Gomez’ ‘improving’ play recently. So far in May, he’s gone .250/.327/.354, which counts as a solid jump up from his .195/.250/.293 slash line in April. He’s done so by improving his walk rate to 8.2% and his reach rate from 36.8% to a more decent 25.2% level so far this year.

The question might still be, though, if a center fielder putting up even his improved walk rate can succeed if striking out 22.5% of the time and not showing any power. Sure, his defense in center field is the best of the bunch (15.6 UZR/150 career), but he’s currently a negative on offense. Right now, his best value would be as a defensive replacement in center field, but he’s young and the team will continue to run him out there and cost the more valuable Cuddyer, Young and Span at-bats for no real good reason. If that changes, though, Cuddyer and Span should get a nudge up in your rankings.