Archive for Max Scherzer

Do you have a case of the Mondays? If you do, you need to wake yourself up and get to work, because you’re not being paid to read this. Cyberslacking hurts everyone.

Read the rest of this entry »

The night before Opening Day makes me feel like an 8 year old kid on Christmas Eve, staring at a mountain of presents sitting under the tree waiting to be torn into the next morning.  That one’s definitely an Xbox, those are the video games, and somewhere in that pile is definitely a new baseball glove.  Then morning comes and with unbridled excitement I rush to the pile and start ripping paper with a fury like no other.    Socks and underwear?  A sweater?  These aren’t video games, they’re books.  And who the hell gives an 8 year old a stationery set and thank you cards?  I got rolled on Christmas morning!!

Well, that’s what’s going on now for many of us as we look over our rosters that we were absolutely gushing over as recently as last week.  Suddenly you see a bunch of red crosses next to the names, platoon situations are being discussed, and statuses are being changed from “active” to “minors”.  I know that Opening Day is supposed to be a day filled with excitement and fresh starts, but now it just feels like the fantasy gods have come down and kicked me in the groin….twice.  Here’s what I’m bitching about: Read the rest of this entry »

By now, we all know that Max Scherzer really struggled with his control during the month of May, prompting the Tigers to send him down to the minors to slightly tweak his mechanics and get him back on the right path. Everyone also knows that he had only two starts in the minors, was recalled, and has bounced back ever since. But, for me, “bounced back” isn’t a strong enough statement to describe his performance of late. Scherzer is probably one of the better stories in fantasy baseball this year, but he doesn’t seem to be getting enough credit for the clinic he’s put on in the last couple of months.

June and July
Right away, Scherzer started putting up numbers that owners (and the Tigers) had expected of him. He was striking out over a batter an inning, keeping the walks at a reasonable level, and not getting killed by the longball. These two months were nothing special (for Scherzer), but they proved that the ship may be righted for good.

August
Scherzer had some troubles keeping a high K-rate in August, but that was due more to bad luck than to diminished ability. He lowered his walk totals, and thanks to a .254 opponents BABIP, he turned in a nice and shiny 1.29 ERA.

September
This is where Scherzer has really shined. During the month of September, Scherzer has lowered his walk totals even further, but has been striking out more than a batter an inning once again. For a pitcher with a very high strikeout rate, a 4.88 K/BB is more than anyone could ask for. He has been beyond dominant lately. To prove a point, here is Scherzer’s last five starts.

9 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 ER
7.1 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 4 ER
6 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 4 ER
8 IP, 11 K, 2 BB, 2 ER
7.2 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 0 ER

Not only is Scherzer striking batters out at a high rate, but he’s also pitching deep into games, something that has become underrated in fantasy circles. In my mind, Scherzer shouldn’t fall past the fifth or sixth round next year, and should be the first Tigers’ pitcher off the board. That’s right, Max Scherzer is better than Justin Verlander, and should be treated like it.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 17. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Jorge de la Rosa – After being lit up in his first two outings since missing two-and-a-half months with a finger injury, de la Rosa had a strong outing his last start, going 6 IP with 8 Ks in a no-decision. With home starts against the Pirates and Cubs, look for de la Rosa to bounce back into the win column this week.

Jon Garland – Regression has hit for Garland, as the early-season ERA which hovered around 2.00 is now up to 3.61, thanks to back-to-back month of ERAs over 5. But Garland still enjoys a big home/road split. He is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at Petco, where has both of his starts this week. Get Garland off the bench and into your lineup.

Jonathon Niese – In his last three starts, Niese has a 3.20 ERA with 18 Ks in 19.2 IP but is 0-2. He has had some gopher ball troubles in that span, allowing 5 HR during that stretch. But he has two home outings, where he has allowed just 4 HR in 55.2 IP. Niese has been pitching very well, and if he can avoid serving up homers, he should be able to come away with a Win this week to support his strong showing in the other categories.

Max Scherzer – Since returning to the majors on May 30th, Scherzer is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA with 74 Ks in 63.2 IP. However, all three of his losses in that span have come on the road, where he has both starts this week. With visits to Tampa Bay and Boston on tap for Scherzer, you may want to remove him from your lineup if you have a reasonable alternative.

Carlos Silva – On July 6th, Silva picked up the win to up his record to 9-2 with a 2.96 ERA. But in his last two starts (one home, one road) he has allowed 11 ER in 2.1 IP, raising his ERA nearly a full run, no easy feat in the middle of July. Silva has had trouble with the gopher ball this year on the road, where he has allowed 5 HR in 42.2 IP, which has led to a 4.22 ERA away from Wrigley. This week he goes to Colorado and Houston. It does not seem like the week for Silva to get back on track, so keep him on the bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.
F. Hernandez, J. Johnson, Sabathia, Greinke, Liriano, Danks, Lee, Cain, Strasburg, Hamels, Nolasco, Weaver, Hanson, Garza, Vazquez, Floyd, Zito, Billingsley, Buchholz, J. Garica, Shields, Pineiro, Arroyo, Hammel, Wolf, G. Gonzalez, Blanton, Westbrook, Millwood, Duke, Chen, R. Lopez, Bergesen, Rowland-Smith, Wright.

Because of the All-Star break and no two-start pitchers, there is no update on how my picks went two weeks ago.

Max Scherzer, Tigers

Max was a mess prior to a mid-May demotion to Triple-A Toledo, but he has been dealing since his vociferous, 14 K return to the majors on May 30th. Scherzer’s fastball velocity has climbed:

Scherzer’s averaging 94.1 MPH since his recall, compared to 91.8 MPH prior. What’s interesting is that his increase in whiffs comes largely from his secondary stuff — the whiff rate on his fastball has improved (6.3% since his recall, 5.2% before his demotion; 6% MLB average), but his slider whiff rate is up to 20.3% from 14% (13.6% MLB average), and his changeup whiff rate has climbed to 20.4% from 10.5% (12.6% MLB average). It’s entirely possible that the increased zip on Scherzer’s fastball makes his slider and change more effective — pitches don’t exist in a vacuum, independent of one another.

Overall, Scherzer now has 8.26 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and a 4.17 xFIP in 73 innings pitched. However, his early season struggles and ugly 5.67 ERA (the result of a .332 BABIP, 64.1 LOB% and a 14 HR/FB%) have scared off many owners — Scherzer is rostered in just 34% of Yahoo leagues. ZiPS projects a 4.07 FIP with 8.59 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9 for the rest of 2010. This is a great buy-low opportunity.

Chris Young, Diamondbacks

Young had a disastrous season at the plate in 2009, batting .212/.311/.400 with a .314 wOBA and an 85 wRC+. Those looking for a silver lining pointed to Young’s career-high 11.8% walk rate, solid power (.187 ISO) and low .268 BABIP. However, he whiffed 30.7% and basically earned that low BABIP due to an absurdly high infield/fly ball rate. Young popped the ball up 22.4% last season, nearly tripling the major league average. Those weakly hit infield flies are gimme outs, and help explain why Young’s expected BABIP was just .276.

This season, Young has cut his IF/FB rate to a much more palatable 9.3%, and his punchout rate is down to 23.6%. He’s hitting .278/.341/.483 in 288 PA, good for a .366 wOBA and a 122 wRC+. As an added bonus, Young has already swiped 12 bases this season and is on pace for a career-best 28 SB.

While Young has certainly been better offensively this season, we probably shouldn’t expect him to suddenly keep this pace from here on out. His BABIP so far is .319, compared to a .307 xBABIP. And, while the big drop in his pop ups is a great sign, infield/fly ball rate doesn’t become reliable until a batter takes about 500 trips to the plate. ZiPS projects .247/.321/.456 for the rest of the season, with a .343 wOBA and a .285 BABIP. Young could best that line if he can keep on limiting the infield flies.

Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers

Injuries have been a problem for the former Hiroshima Toyo Carp ace since he came stateside in 2008 (shoulder tendinitis in ’08, an oblique strain, a sizzling line drive to the head and a herniated disc in his neck in ’09), but he’s been highly effective when on the mound — his career xFIP is 3.79.

This year, Kuroda’s got 7.13 K/9, 2.45 BB/9 and a 3.68 xFIP in 88.1 frames, keeping the ball down with a 53.5 GB% to boot. The 35-year-old righty is going to his 92-93 MPH fastball less often this season — about 52%, compared to 66% in 2009. In place of the heater, he’s relaying more on a mid-80’s slider/cutter (about 37%) while also mixing in high-80’s splitters (11%). All of his pitches are getting more whiffs than the big league average — 7.7% with the fastball, 14.4% for the slider and 18.1% for the splitter (16.1% MLB average). Kuroda’s still on the waiver wire in 23% of Yahoo leagues, but he’s a rock-solid starter when healthy.

Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays?

Demoted and then DFA’d by the Jays, Encarnacion’s future in Toronto is up in the air — another team could claim him and what’s remaining of his $4.75 million salary (he’s arbitration-eligible next season, too), though GM Alex Anthopoulos doubts that’ll happen.

The 27-year-old Encarnacion, picked up as part of the Scott Rolen swap last summer, is having a bizarre 2010 season. In between a DL stint for a right shoulder injury, he has hit .200/.298/.467 in 141 PA, with a .267 ISO and a wacky-low .167 BABIP.

During his big league tenure, Encarnacion has a .257/.339/.449 triple-slash, a .344 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. He has drawn walks at a slightly above-average rate (9.3 BB%), and he’s got power (.193 ISO). He has generally had a below-average BABIP because he pops the ball up often (16 IF/FB%). Encarnacion is not a lost cause at the plate, but the problem lies on the other side of his game.

The former Red has proven to be a ghastly defender at third base, with a career -12.4 UZR at the position. He could revive his career if he proves to be a capable corner outfielder, but he’s likely going to be a drag defensively at whatever position he mans, and his bat isn’t good enough to pick up the slack. DH’s with modestly useful lumber don’t stick around the majors.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds

On the surface, the guitar-strumming righty with the high leg kick is having another season of innings-munching adequacy — a 4.53 ERA in 93.1 frames. However, Arroyo’s peripheral stats aren’t music to anyone’s ears. He’s got 4.63 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 5.20 xFIP. He’s not putting many pitches within the zone (46.1%, compared to a 47.2% MLB average) and his contact rate has climbed to 85.6% (it was 84.7% last season and around the 81% MLB average from 2006-2008). Remember how Scherzer is owned in just 34% of Yahoo leagues? Well, Arroyo’s 6-3 record has earned him a roster spot in 36% of leagues.

Unless Arroyo picks up the pace K-wise and displays his characteristically quality control, he’s going to start getting hit harder — he’s not likely to keep a .266 BABIP or a 7.1 HR/FB% all season long.

Ian Desmond, Nationals

Washington’s third-round selection in the 2004 draft is falling short of pre-season expectations. Both CHONE (.265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA) and ZiPS (.270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA) gave forecasts of league-average hitting, but Desmond currently sits at .256/.290/.388, with a .296 wOBA.

A major reason for the 24-year-old’s sub-.300 wOBA is his huge strike zone. Desmond’s swinging at 34.5% of pitches thrown outside of the zone (28.3% MLB average), which has often put him in the pitcher’s clutches. The Nats’ shortstop has a 63.5 first pitch strike percentage, far exceeding the 58.4% big league average. Not surprisingly, Desmond’s walk rate is just 4.1%. He’ll need to show a better eye to avoid being a liability at the plate.

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer was demoted to Triple-A Toledo today, along with second baseman Scott Sizemore.

Scherzer, who was acquired from the D’Backs by the Tigers this offseason as part of the Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson deal, did not impress in his brief time in the AL. Scherzer struck out 9.19 batters per nine innings last year, but is down to a 5.57 K/9 through his eight starts in 2010.

He has seen a touch of bad luck, with a .327 BABIP agaisnt and 58% LOB%. However, Scherzer has had trouble with balls in play for his short MLB career, with a .323 BABIP against in over 268 innings.

While his ERA is 7.29, his xFIP is only 5.04. Our updated ZiPS projections have Scherzer finishing the year with a 5.16 ERA. MLB.com’s Jason Beck says that Scherzer has had problems with his mechanics, so hopefully he can work things out in the minors and return relatively shortly. If you have Scherzer in a keeper league, you might as well hold on to him during this stretch, otherwise it is safe to drop him.

As far as Sizemore goes, his demotion isn’t even the biggest news surrounding the Tigers 2B job. The team says that Carlos Guillen will be the everyday second baseman when he returns from the DL in the next week or two.

Guillen hasn’t played 2B since 1999 (when he was with the Mariners), but he did play 132 games at SS back in 2007, so he isn’t that far removed from the middle infield. In real life, UZR was not kind to Guillen at SS in ’07, or at 3B in ’08, so we’ll see how long Guillen can hold down the job at 2B. For fantasy owners, as long as he plays enough games to gain eligibility, it doesn’t matter how long he sticks. ZiPS has Guillen hitting .280 the rest of the season, and adding in 10 homers and 5 steals. Getting those numbers out of your second baseman is not the worst thing in the world.

Focusing on Sizemore, a .268 BABIP and 3.6% HR/FB rate hurt his value and he ended up with awRC+ of only 60. He should be able to return to AAA and hit very well once again, forcing the Tigers to consider bringing him back up later on in the season. But, if Guillen plays well at 2B, there may not be room from him.

During his first full year as a big league starter, Max Scherzer showcased a sizzling fastball. The University of Missouri righty, who came to terms with the Diamondbacks after a protracted holdout that included a stint in indy ball, averaged 94.1 MPH with his heater. In 170.1 frames, Scherzer whiffed 9.19 batters per nine innings, walked 3.33 and posted a 3.88 xFIP that ranked in the top 20 among NL starting pitchers.

Shipped to Detroit over the winter as part of a three-time trade that put Curtis Granderson in Yankee pinstripes, Scherzer was expected to team with Justin Verlander to give the Tigers a pair of high-octane aces at the front of the rotation. Recapping Scherzer’s ’09 season, I wrote the following back in January:

Overall, Scherzer’s first year as a permanent starter was extremely promising. Many have wondered why the Diamondbacks shipped him out of town, preferring two years of team control over Edwin Jackson and six years of Ian Kennedy over five years of Scherzer and six years of Daniel Schlereth.

The most likely reason is that Arizona doubts Scherzer’s long-term health and viability as a starting pitcher. To recap his extensive injury history since 2006: shoulder and biceps tendinitis in ‘06, shoulder inflammation in 2008, shoulder fatigue and tightness in 2009. His health certainly bears watching, especially considering that Scherzer’s innings total increased from 109 in 2008 to 175 in 2009 (major league innings plus one rehab start).

There’s little doubt that Scherzer has the talent to become one of the top 20-30 starters in the majors. Few pitchers combine his ability to miss bats with quality control. The question is: can he hold up physically?

While Scherzer hasn’t missed any time in 2010, he also hasn’t displayed the electric stuff that made him such a prized commodity in fantasy circles: his average fastball velocity is 91.7 MPH this year. In 2009, batters whiffed at Scherzer’s gas 13.1 percent of the time. That blew the six percent big league average out of the water. In 2010, though? his whiff rate on the fastball is a nothing-special 5.9 percent. His fastball was thrown for a strike 65.6 percent last year, but that figure has fallen to 61.7 percent with the Tigers (64.4 percent MLB average).

That fastball is clearly key to Scherzer’s success: per Trip Somers’ tool, Scherzer threw a fastball 74.3 percent of the time in 2009 and has gone to it 68.5 percent in 2010. Given the big drop in whiff rate on the pitch, it’s not surprising to see that Scherzer’s contact rate is up to a MLB average 81 percent, compared to last year’s 76.9 percent mark, and his swinging strike rate is also right around the big league average at 8.2 percent. In 2009, it was 10.6 percent.

Back in April, Mike Fast estimated that a starter’s run average increased by 0.25 runs for every MPH of fastball velocity lost. So far, Scherzer has a 6.81 ERA in 37 innings pitched. He hasn’t been that bad: a .346 BABIP and very low strand rate (58.3 percent) haven’t done him any favors. But with just 6.08 K/9 and 3.41 BB/9, Scherzer’s xFIP sits at a mediocre 4.85. A two-plus MPH loss in velocity would suggest a rise in runs allowed per nine frames in the neighborhood of six-tenths of a run. For a guy as reliant on the heat as Scherzer, perhaps it’s a bit more.

This isn’t to set off panic alarms. I’m not going to channel Jim Cramer and scream “Sell! Sell! Sell!” (Plus, I don’t have a fancy sound-effect board, so it wouldn’t have the same resonance.) But, given Scherzer’s checkered health history, the drop off in velocity is troubling and should be monitored. Scherzer hasn’t shown the same ferocious fastball with his new club.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Five.

Brett Cecil – After getting the Rays and the Red Sox in his first two starts this year, Cecil gets a break from AL East opponents this week with road starts in Cleveland and Chicago, two teams with a combined 18-25 record. Cecil has allowed 2 HR in 12.2 IP but the Indians are 13th in the American League in HR. He will face a harder time on that score against the White Sox, but outside of HR, the Chicago offense has been terrible this year. Southpaws have limited the White Sox to a .216/.219/.381 line this season. Cecil is on the waiver wire in most leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two-start week.

Kevin Correia – After losing his first start of the year, Correia has run off four straight wins. But that has had as much to do with the level of offensive support he has received as it has had to do with his pitching. In his last two starts, Correia has 10.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB and 11 H allowed and 2 W. With matchups this week against Ubaldo Jimenez and Roy Oswalt, do not expect the Padres offense to supply him with a ton of runs. Put Correia on the bench this week.

Gavin Floyd – It has been a rough start to 2010 for Floyd, who finally broke into the win column in his last outing. The key was that he did not allow a single walk in 7 IP. Even after that outing, Floyd has a 4.10 BB/9. In the three previous years, Floyd’s highest BB/9 was 3.05. And even with the elevated walk rate, Floyd’s xFIP is 2.42 runs lower than his ERA. With home starts against two sub-.500 teams in the Royals and Blue Jays, Floyd is set up for a good week if he can continue to throw strikes.

Jaime Garcia – As Dave Cameron alluded to yesterday, Garcia has a pretty nice GB rate. Maybe the Cardinals can start removing Skip Schumaker and perhaps even David Freese when he takes the mound. But aside from that, right now Garcia is really outperforming his peripherals. His xFIP is 2.65 runs higher than his ERA. Garcia has yet to allow a run at home this season, but this week he has two road starts, including one against the Phillies and Cole Hamels. Give Garcia a week off if you have a safe alternative.

Max Scherzer – In three of his first four starts this season, Scherzer threw a Quality Start. In his other outing he missed because he only went five innings. In his last start, he got lit up by the Twins. But Scherzer gets a rematch versus Minnesota this week. My opinion is that whenever a pitcher faces a team in back-to-back outings, he usually has the opposite result in the second start. In his other game this week, he faces the weak-hitting Indians, a nice tonic for a pitcher who has allowed a HR in his last four starts. Ignore Scherzer’s poor outing his last time out and keep him active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Five are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Jimenez, Kershaw, Oswalt, Dempster, Shields, Lester, Hamels, Baker, E. Santana, Peavy, Pavano, Harden, Matusz, Braden, Garcia, L. Hernandez, Leake, Kennedy, Sanders, Talbot, A. Sanchez, Blanton, O. Perez, Vargas, Maholm, Kawkami, Guthrie, Meche, Wellemeyer, Narveson, Paulino, Mulvey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Three pitchers and how they fared.

Bailey – Recommended to sit. 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.677 WHIP
Morrow – Recommended to sit. W, 16 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.077 WHIP
Myers – Recommended to start. W, 8 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.539 WHIP
Pelfrey – Recommended to start. 2 W, 9 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP
Slowey – Recommended to start – W, 11 Ks, 3.375 ERA, 1.200 WHIP

Right-hander Max Scherzer looked poised to team with Dan Haren for years to come, giving the Diamondbacks an elite one-two punch at the top of the rotation. However, after January’s three-team headliner between the Yankees, Tigers and D-Backs, Scherzer now heads to Detroit to miss scads of bats alongside Justin Verlander.

Taken out of Missouri with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft, Scherzer didn’t sign on the dotted line right away. The 6-5 power pitcher had a good, not great junior season for the Tigers, missing a run of starts with biceps and shoulder tendinitis. Baseball America said that Scherzer “only flashed” his mid-to-upper 90’s fastball velocity, generally sitting at 91-92 MPH. Scouts also had concerns about his herky-jerky delivery, as well as his promising-but-inconsistent hard slider and changeup.

With Scherzer still seeking top-line cash, negotiations between Arizona and agent Scott Boras moved at a glacial pace. This was before baseball instituted a mid-August signing deadline in 2007-prior to ’07, teams retained the rights to a player up to one week prior to the next year’s draft. Scherzer kept sharp by pitching for the independent Fort Worth Cats. Eventually, Arizona ponied up $4.3 million in guaranteed money, with $1.5 million in incentives.

Max finally took a pro mound in 2007. He started his career in the High-A California League, scorching hitters for a 30/2 K/BB ratio and a 0.53 ERA in 17 IP and quickly earning a promotion to the Double-A Southern League. In 14 AA starts covering 73.2 frames, Scherzer struck out 9.3 batters per nine innings. His control left something to be desired (4.9 BB/9), but he posted a 3.46 FIP.

Following the ’07 season, Baseball America named Scherzer the fourth-best prospect in a loaded Arizona system (Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Parker and Brett Anderson ranked ahead of him). BA gushed over his fastball, which hit the “mid-90’s with sinking action at its best.” Scherzer’s upper-80’s slider also impressed, though it was inconsistent.

However, they also noted that “some scouts who saw Scherzer as a starter at midseason wondered what the fuss was about.” His heater sat in the low-90’s, and “his overall stuff, command, feel and delivery all drew questions.” A dominant showing in relief in the Arizona Fall League (18 K in 12.2 IP) seemed to reinforce the concept that Scherzer could end up as a closer instead of a starter.

Scherzer began the 2008 season starting at Triple-A Tucson of the Pacific Coast League, but he was summoned to the majors in late April. He oscillated between the rotation and the ‘pen before being sent back to AAA in mid-June. Unfortunately, he came down with a case of shoulder inflammation, missing a month of the season. After a few relief appearances with the Sidewinders, Scherzer transitioned back to the minor league rotation in late July. Recalled to Arizona in late August, Max had a pair of relief stints and then spent September in the major league rotation. Whew-got all that?

In AAA, Scherzer simply outclassed the competition. He whiffed 13.4 batters per nine with 3.7 BB/9. Max’s FIP was a microscopic 2.07 in 53 innings. When batters weren’t swinging and missing wildly, they were chopping the ball into the ground (51.7 GB%).

With the Diamondbacks, Scherzer made seven starts and nine relief appearances in 56 IP. Overall, he displayed an impressive combo of power (10.61 K/9) and control (3.38 BB/9). Scherzer’s xFIP was just 3.19.

His stuff was as wicked as advertised. Scherzer sat at 94 MPH with his fastball, tossing the pitch about 73 percent of the time. That gas was supplemented by a mid-80’s slider (thrown 17 percent) and changeup (10 percent). Scherzer’s fastball had a +0.63 run value per 100 pitches, and his slider bucked knees for a +3.79 mark. The changeup lagged behind, though the sample size was small (-3.29). Scherzer pounded the strike zone, placing 54.7 percent of his pitches over the plate (51.1% MLB average in ’08), and his 72.9% contact rate was well below the 80.8% big league average.

In 2009, Scherzer began the year on the DL with shoulder fatigue and tightness. Max became a full-time starter after his activation in mid-April, taking the mound 30 times and throwing 170.1 innings. The 25 year-old was extremely hard to hit, punching out 9.19 batters per nine innings. His 76.9% contact rate was 14-lowest among starters, and his 10.4 swinging strike rate placed 16th among starters (7.8% average for SP).

Scherzer’s control was solid as well. He issued a modest 3.33 BB/9, while getting ahead of batters with a 61.3 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). With a 3.88 xFIP, Scherzer placed in the top 20 among NL starters.

Max’s fastball didn’t lose much zip while making all of his appearances as a starter, sitting at 93.6 MPH. He still called on the pitch heavily: Scherzer’s 71% fastball usage was seventh-highest among starters. That heater was slightly below average on a per-pitch basis (-0.11 runs/100). Scherzer’s 85 MPH slider (thrown 12 percent) posted a +0.58 runs/100 value, while his changeup checked in at -0.61.

The high-octane righty subdued same-handed batters, holding right-handed hitters to a 92 sOPS+ (he performed eight percent better than the league average vs. RHB). Lefties fared better, with a 103 sOPS+.

In moving from Chase Field to Comerica Park, Scherzer goes from a hitter’s paradise to a park that still favors offense, though not to the same extent. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Chase inflated run-scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009. Over that same time period, Comerica boosted runs by five percent.

Overall, Scherzer’s first year as a permanent starter was extremely promising. Many have wondered why the Diamondbacks shipped him out of town, preferring two years of team control over Edwin Jackson and six years of Ian Kennedy over five years of Scherzer and six years of Daniel Schlereth.

The most likely reason is that Arizona doubts Scherzer’s long-term health and viability as a starting pitcher. To recap his extensive injury history since 2006: shoulder and biceps tendinitis in ’06, shoulder inflammation in 2008, shoulder fatigue and tightness in 2009. His health certainly bears watching, especially considering that Scherzer’s innings total increased from 109 in 2008 to 175 in 2009 (major league innings plus one rehab start).

There’s little doubt that Scherzer has the talent to become one of the top 20-30 starters in the majors. Few pitchers combine his ability to miss bats with quality control. The question is: can he hold up physically?

Injury information taken from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool

The Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks have just finished up a deal that involves Max Scherzer, Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson.

Yankees Receive: Granderson
Tigers Receive: Scherzer, A. Jackson, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke
D’Backs Receive: E. Jackson, Kennedy

Without arguing about who won the deal, let’s analyze how this may change each player’s fantasy value.

Granderson – Grandy moves to a park that is heaven for left handed power hitters. Granderson hit 30 jacks while playing in Detroit, so I am salivating at the chances Grandy will have for dingers in New Yankee Stadium. It is unclear where Grandy fits in the Yankees lineup, but he will likely hit second behind Derek Jeter. While Johnny Damon occupied this spot last year, it is going to take a very cheap deal for him to return to New York next year.

Scherzer – Moving to the AL won’t help Scherzer, nor will the defense behind him. Scherzer is a strikeout machine, and should perform just fine in the AL. The possibility of more run support and added wins will be an added plus for Scherzer going into drafts.

A. Jackson – I doubt he starts the year in the bigs, but I think he ends the year starting for the Tigers. This is what would have likely happened in New York, so Jackson’s value doesn’t take much of a hit.

Schlereth – He has a great strikeout rate, but a terrible walk rate. His ERA will certainly be lower next year due to his BABIP and LOB%. Depending on what happens with Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, Schlereth could compete for the closers role.

Coke – Coke will likely compete with Schlereth for the closers job, but all of this is just speculation because we aren’t sure what the Tigers plan to do with their bullpen during the remainder of the offseason.

E. Jackson – Jackson’s 13 wins last year now seem to be hard to reach in 2010. Jackson’s new defense is good, but not spectacular. Jackson will continue to be overvalued in fantasy drafts, but this will knock him down a few spots.

Kennedy – It’s unclear where he will start the year. The D’Backs seem to be having an option competition for a rotation spot or two, but don’t be surprised to see Kennedy spend another half-season in the minors waiting for an injury to occur.

Out of all the players dealt, Granderson’s value will rise the most. He looked to be a sleeper candidate going into the year, but this trade will bring him back into the limelight and raise his value to what it should have been in the first place. Those of you who used a keeper spot on Grandy, I salute you.