September’s Surging Starters: Scherzer
By now, we all know that Max Scherzer really struggled with his control during the month of May, prompting the Tigers to send him down to the minors to slightly tweak his mechanics and get him back on the right path. Everyone also knows that he had only two starts in the minors, was recalled, and has bounced back ever since. But, for me, “bounced back” isn’t a strong enough statement to describe his performance of late. Scherzer is probably one of the better stories in fantasy baseball this year, but he doesn’t seem to be getting enough credit for the clinic he’s put on in the last couple of months.
June and July
Right away, Scherzer started putting up numbers that owners (and the Tigers) had expected of him. He was striking out over a batter an inning, keeping the walks at a reasonable level, and not getting killed by the longball. These two months were nothing special (for Scherzer), but they proved that the ship may be righted for good.
August
Scherzer had some troubles keeping a high K-rate in August, but that was due more to bad luck than to diminished ability. He lowered his walk totals, and thanks to a .254 opponents BABIP, he turned in a nice and shiny 1.29 ERA.
September
This is where Scherzer has really shined. During the month of September, Scherzer has lowered his walk totals even further, but has been striking out more than a batter an inning once again. For a pitcher with a very high strikeout rate, a 4.88 K/BB is more than anyone could ask for. He has been beyond dominant lately. To prove a point, here is Scherzer’s last five starts.
9 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 ER
7.1 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 4 ER
6 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 4 ER
8 IP, 11 K, 2 BB, 2 ER
7.2 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 0 ER
Not only is Scherzer striking batters out at a high rate, but he’s also pitching deep into games, something that has become underrated in fantasy circles. In my mind, Scherzer shouldn’t fall past the fifth or sixth round next year, and should be the first Tigers’ pitcher off the board. That’s right, Max Scherzer is better than Justin Verlander, and should be treated like it.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Not to dispute your central point, since Scherzer has been great, but calling him flat out better than Verlander is a sketchy claim. Exactly equal would be on point:
Since June:
Verlander
145.1 IP, 50 ER, 9 HR, 142 K, 45 BB, 2.98 FIP
Scherzer
143 IP, 38 ER, 9 HR, 141 K, 47 BB, 3.03 FIP
Given Verlander’s superior track record, I’d take him first.
I would have to agree with Zach. Don’t get me wrong as I am a big fan of Mad Max (own him in multiple leagues), but I am not sure how one would take him over Verlander because of a 4-month sample.
xFIP, 2010 season
Verlander: 3.73
Scherzer: 3.81
Even with a bad first couple of months, it’s really close. That’s why I’d go with Scherzer.
The difference between the two in fantasy terms comes down to injury risk. Both should be considered above average risks, Scherzer has the history and Verlander has the workload. Whichever scares you more is the weaker asset come draft day.
And yes, you should probably expect Verlander to be about 1% better than Scherzer. And if healthy, he should throw more innings.
Verlander hasn’t been merely standing still — over the past month, especially, he’s been dominant. He’s said that he made a mechanical adjustment to his curve, and I know when I saw him recently against the Chi Sox, he looked nearly unhittable. So, though I’m definitely on the Scherzer bandwagon for next year, I’d still pick Verlander first, given his longer-term consistency AND recent dominance.
Exactly, don’t get me wrong I like Max but to say he is better than Verlander and should go before him is kinda ridiculous, especially considering Verlander has been even better than Max lately. In Verlander’s past 7 starts he has averaged over a K an inning, has a sub 1 WHIP, an ERA right around 2.00 and has an obscene 58 to 7 K:BB ratio. Not to mention he has gone atleast 8IP in 5 of them including 2 complete games.
So really there’s no basis for picking Max over Verlander. Verlander has been better recently, has been better on the year and has a much better track record. That’s not to say that Max may not end up better than Verlander because he does have great stuff but to flat out say he is better than him is a little premature to say the least.
Also I’d just like to add over the past 2 years only Zack Greinke has a higher than WAR than Verlander(and even that’s by a mere .2) and the past 3 years only 5 other pitchers have posted a better one than him yet he seems to get completely lost in the shuffle. For example this year he has posted a 5.9WAR and is less than 1 away from the leader, only .3 less than guys like Liriano, Johnson and Wainwright and .2 less than Felix yet I don’t think there was a single article on any big website, or even this one that mentions anything about the season he is having and absolutely nobody mentioned him in the CY Young conversation, hell CJ Wilson was on the fangraphs ballot over Verlander. It’s been all about Felix and Liriano even though Verlander is one great start away from posting a better WAR than both of them. (Not necessarily saying he will and deserves it over Felix cause he doesn’t just pointing how good he actually has been and how close he is when you look at his sabers)
Look at Verlander’s career xFIP and see how he outperforms it. Isn’t it a pretty much accepted fact that elite pitchers have at least a little ability to suppress HR/FB?
Max could easily be the starter everyone wish they drafted in rounds 9-11 (Ubaldo this year, Greinke last year).
And of course the prospect of future health cannot be ignored. Verlander has not shown signs of future injury, but Scherzer has questionable mechanics and a history of shoulder issues. I would not be surprised to see him visiting mr.andrews for a torn labrum/cuff in the near future.
These kind of predictions are always so pointless. You could say the same thing for any pitcher and end up being right most of the time. Pitching overhand is not a natural motion for anyone and most pitchers get hurt. There is no way to predict injuries no matter what some internet pitching mechanics “expert” thinks. If anyone actually could predict this they would be getting paid huge amounts of money by pro teams. They can’t.
Scherzer has been great throughout his brief career. He had a little trouble with the HRs last season and his mechanics were off a bit this season, but he has been solid over his first 417 innings.
However, I’m most encouraged by his increased efficiency. Last year he had 30 starts and 170 IP. This season he has 30 starts and 190 IP. That’s an extra two outs per start.
I’m still taking Verlander ahead of Scherzer (more IP, more wins, better control, fewer HR). Although if the choice is Verlander in round 5 or Scherzer in round 8, I’ll go with Scherzer. Pitching is so deep – I can see a lot of quality SP falling behind the plus bats because there’s a real scarcity of .300-30-100-100 players these days.
I picked him up right before his 2nd start in the minors. Some fool dropped him because they thought he was a bust. I expected a 3.8-4.2 FIP but never expected this. Moral of the story never give up on a player too early and jump on picking up players with potential. The players won’t turn into Scherzer very often but when they do it more than makes up the difference from picking up a Dontrelle Willis every few years (yeah i thought he still could pitch.)
So i guess that’s why Chris o Leary is currenty employed by one of those said teams, because its all poppycock. Also its basic logic, the one with an injury history is probably going to get injured again.
Hi guys,
Everyone raved about my clean mechanics and said I’d be injury free. Now in hindsight everyone says it was obvious that my mechanics were flawed and a red flag should have been flying tipping off that I’d be hurt eventually.
So the Mets hire the guy and it makes his work true. There is no way to predict injuries. As for your basic logic, how do you know what caused the injuries at all? Maybe his body changed over that time. There are a million different possible causes. To say because he got injured in the past he is more likely to get injured in the future is lazy analysis. To say because his 3/4 arm angle is equally lazy and incorrect.