Archive for Matt Holliday

On Wednesday, we took a look at two 2B who appear very similar while possessing vastly different average salaries throughout the Ottoneu universe. While Kipnis and Forysthe appeared nearly identical in many ways, today I want to look at two outfielders who are similar in several regards, but not nearly as identical as Wednesday’s test-cases.

One of the major differences between today’s Mr. Name Brand and Mr. Generic is their respective ages. Why is this important? If you’ve played Ottoneu (or any dynasty slanted format) for any amount of time, you will likely find that the majority of owners are biased against the aged. While age is typically viewed as a premium, this can be detrimental when pricing comes into play as owners will chase after the shiny, younger, new toys. Given the 10 year age difference between our name brand and generic option, it is likely that these two will never be considered in the same tier.

The $38 price difference across Ottoneu leagues also confirms this – and while age is not the only reason for this price gap – it should help us determine that Mr. Name Brand is priced as if he is one of the most elite players in Ottoneu. While both are power hitters, our name brand option displays otherworldly power, but also strikes 13% more than our generic option. He also had 40 points of BABIP on Mr. Generic. Let’s dig a little deeper.

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Symbolic of the Cardinals’ chances of winning the NL Central division this year, we see a significant change in their DL status. We will start with them:

Matt Holliday now has a fractured thumb. This involves his right hand, and depending on what they discover today/release in the news later, could be season-ending. Don’t dump him yet until you get verification on this, but even if it takes 3 weeks to allow the bone to heal, he will still have to get grip strength and then batting timing back. Consider him to be a playoff hold.

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An unambiguously true fact: Matt Holliday is an old man in baseball years and in dog years. Another unambiguously true fact: Holliday has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Hear ye:

• He has hit at least 20 home runs in nine straight years, a streak currently matched only by David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera;
• His walk rate has hovered between 10 and 12 percent for the better part of a decade, and his strikeout rate has always resided in the mid-teens;
• He has averaged 647 plate appearances per season dating back to 2006;
• And honestly, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a batted ball profile so absurdly consistent.

Yet a slight dip in power and a career-worst batting average (.272, aka what some players can only dream of hitting) in 2014 couldn’t have come at a worse age, and it all has fans and projection systems alike running for the hills, as shown below.
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I wanted to go with a title that likened Matt Holliday to the smokin’ Diane Lane. But I don’t really look at Holliday the way I do the smokin’ Diane Lane.

Anyway, that Holliday ended up as the 18^th-ranked outfielder in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings for the position might surprise some fantasy baseball players. The St. Louis Cardinals’ regular left fielder hit .272 with 20 home runs and four stolen bases in 667 plate appearances. OK, not bad, those marks seem good enough to place him 18^th. But he hit a mere six home runs in 339 at-bats (400 PAs) prior to the All-Star break, so he appeared to be on course to fall short of 20 bombs for the first time since 2005, his second year in the majors. It might just surprise some folks to find out that he recovered so well.

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Heading into the offseason, the Cardinals didn’t seem to have too much work to do with their outfield. Sure, they were set to lose Carlos Beltran, but they had depth within the organization and there hardly seemed to be a need to go fishing on the free agent market. A quick trade to maybe give themselves some improvement in center field happened early in the winter, but everything else was left alone. Now here we are with less than two weeks before pitchers and catcher report and less than a month before position players make their way and there’s still no room for potential rookie sensation, Oscar Taveras. Read the rest of this entry »

The likelihood of the Texas Rangers signing Prince Fielder grew even slimmer on Friday when the team opted to take a cheaper route and sign Brad Hawpe to a minor league league deal.  Hawpe, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, also received an invite to spring training and, if he makes the cut, is expected to provide insurance for incumbent first baseman Mitch Moreland, who is currently recovering from off season wrist surgery.  Now the question remains…will Hawpe have any fantasy value in 2012?

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After struggling in his past few outings, it appears that Alexi Ogando is going to pitch the rest of the way out of the bullpen. Luckily for you, I have some thoughts.

– The Rangers haven’t made a final decision on this matter yet, but I’m willing to bet they ultimately decide to bulk up the bullpen instead of letting Ogando struggle in the rotation.

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Continuing on last week’s theme, we turn our attention today to the National League fantasy All-Stars.  As a reminder, I’m basing this on the past calendar year’s performance under the FanGraphs Points scoring system.   The $ values shown are the player’s average cost on ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues.

Catcher:  Brian McCann (894 pts, .377 wOBA, $30)
Alternates: Buster Posey (753 pts, .368 wOBA, $31) and Carlos Ruiz  (595 pts, .350 wOBA, $5)

Brian McCann is such a stud.  He’s been the best fantasy catcher in the National League for years, and yet somehow I think he still is a bit underrated.  Speaking of underrated, Carlos Ruiz has been a monster over the past year, even if he doesn’t play as often as some of the big guns.  I have him in a 20-team league and can’t find anyone who wants him!

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Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield.  You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here.  As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA.  I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.

Middle Infield

Elite Three (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it):

Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75

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For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching.  You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two.  With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters.  In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »