Archive for Matt Holliday

With the National League Outfield Rankings released today, I thought I’d take on the Top 5 as seen by the collective group of RotoGraphs writers.  Now, obviously, I’m not here to give you the no brainer names and tell you to go after them in your draft.  That would be a pretty short article, no?  But perhaps I can give you a few things to think about that just might make your decision as to which one (or two) to target a little more thought provoking. Read the rest of this entry »

Jimmy Rollins is a great baseball player. He has everything we as fans want to see from guys on the diamond. First and foremost, he is extremely talented. But everyone in MLB is talented. What separates Rollins is how he excels in all facets of the game and the drive and determination he brings every day. Rollins may go 0-4 but he can win the game with a highlight-reel defensive play. And his intangibles reached legendary status back in 2007 when he said that the Phillies were the team to beat in the National League East and then went out and delivered on the field, winning the MVP in the process.

Rollins is an electric player in real life. He is just not an elite player in fantasy baseball, however much his owners wish him to be one.

In his MVP season in 2007, Rollins established career highs in 11 of the “Standard” categories on the FanGraphs player page. If you go to the “Advanced” section, he notched eight more personal bests. And this was from a player who had six full seasons in the majors previously. Rollins was 28 in 2007, an age where it was more likely to be a career year rather than a new level of performance.

In 2008, fantasy owners unanimously considered Rollins to be a first-round pick. However, Rollins went on the disabled list for the first time in his career and fell from 162 games played in 2007 to 137 in 2008. The Razzball Point Share System rated Rollins as the 70th-best fantasy player that season.

Many fantasy owners remained unfazed. Once again, Rollins was considered a first-round pick in 2009 carrying an ADP of 9. There were no injury problems for Rollins last year, as he played in 155 games. However, he had a dismal first half of the year, due in large part to a .240 BABIP before the All-Star break. Rollins did much better in the second half (despite a .262 BABIP) but overall he came in at 86th in the Razzball ratings.

Now, despite back-to-back seasons of 7th-8th round value, owners still see Rollins as an elite fantasy player. The latest ADP rankings at MockDraftCentral have him at 21. He has been drafted as early as 13th and no later than 35th in the last 361 qualifying drafts.

One of the many cool features at FanGraphs is the Fans projections. As of this writing, 100 fans have made projections for Rollins and they give him a .273-19-65-102-35 line. This is the most optimistic projection out there, but basically right in line with what the Bill James and CHONE systems have for him. Marcel has a slightly more pessimistic view, largely due to 61 fewer ABs than CHONE and 82 fewer than what the Fans project.

A rough approximation of the average starting fantasy SS in a 12-team league in 2009 gives the following line:

.290-16-76-83-15

So, the fans have Rollins comfortably above average in SB and R, above average in HR and below average in RBIs and AVG among his position peers.

Compare this to Matt Holliday, the player with an ADP of 20, or the player valued right above Rollins. In 2009 starting outfielders had a rough approximation of the following fantasy line: .279-20-76-81-14. Currently, 111 Fans have given Holliday a .313-26-126-107-15 line.

Let’s compare apples to apples and use another shortstop. Derek Jeter has an ADP of 48 and 151 Fans have given him the following line:

.313-14-75-115-22

So, if you wait two-plus rounds and take Jeter, you get 40 more points of AVG, 10 more RBIs and 13 more runs while giving up 5 HR and 13 SB. Maybe the fans are overrating Jeter, so let’s look at another SS. Jason Bartlett has an ADP of 105, so you can wait seven rounds after you draft Rollins and anticipate these numbers, which come from 109 Fans:

.294-9-81-75-26

So, Fans project Bartlett to be available over 80 picks after Rollins and beat him in two fantasy categories while being competitive in SB. Clearly, Rollins is the better player than Bartlett but once you figure in their draft status, the edge narrows considerably, if not disappears altogether.

The past two years, Rollins has not justified his lofty draft status with production on the field. There have been extenuating circumstances (injuries, luck) but the fact is he has been a disappointment. Now age 31, how likely is it that Rollins will exceed Fans’ expectations and return to 2007 levels? Fantasy owners have developed a Pavlovian response to Rollins, giving him an automatic high ADP just at the sound of his name. But before you make him your second-round pick, investigate other options at the position.

When you’re playing a deep league, most of the time any player that will start in 2010 is draftable and interesting. In my 20-team keeper league, we have Corner Infield spots on our rosters, meaning that we need to play 60 players at first base and third base combined. No need to remind you that there are thirty teams in the league, I’m sure. Warm, starting bodies perk interest in these leagues.

So we come to the Cardinals, who have unloaded their coffers to protect Albert Pujols in the lineup with their shiny new toy, Matt Holliday. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Cards now have $81 million locked up in current contracts, and some significant players entering arbitration (Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan, and Ryan Ludwick most prominently). Factoring in all the young players that typically round out a roster, plus these arbitration upgrades, the Cards have already cleared $90 million in contracts this year, and could be looking at close to $95 million in payroll once the dust clears. Since 2005, the team has averaged $91.9 million per year in payroll. It certainly looks like some young men will get a shot to fill in the remaining holes on this roster.

All of this is preamble for GM John Mozeliak stating on Saturday that David Freese is the number one candidate for their third base opening, and (by implication) Miguel Tejada is probably not on his way into town. What can we expect from the 26-year-old, who is also trying to deal with a DWI charge that was handed down this offseason?

First, the positive. Freese hit .300 at every level last year, culminating in a 300/.369/.525 effort in AAA. As Marc Hulet pointed out in his piece on the Red Birds’ prospects, he was aided by some high BABIPs (.355 was his lowest BABIP since 2008). Another positive is that it seems Freese can do better than his 6% walk rate from last year, as his 2008 and 2009 rates were all higher. He can approach 10% and provide some value with the free passes. Lastly, Freese has posted ISOs over .200 in all but one of his minor league spots. He has real pop.

The bad news is that his strikeout rates could actually get worse next year. Freese debuted with a reasonable number last year (22.6%) but he showed rates in the minors that were in the high 20s. Those sort of strikeout rates aren’t normally associated with strong batting averages. Lo and behold, CHONE has Freese striking out more next year (25.2%), enjoying a more normal BABIP (.391 in 2009, projected for .329 in 2010) and posting a lower batting average (.269) as a result.

But CHONE didn’t account for the young man taking over the job and keeping it all year. The system has him projected for 388 plate appearances, and if he plays all year he will surely clear 600. Pro-rate the power out and you’re looking at a brand-spanking new .269/.335/.442 third baseman with 19 home runs and 82 RBI. I think both the Cardinals and deep league fantasy managers would be very happy with those numbers, especially considering their cost.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, and third basemen.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

Ryan Braun is in a league of his own. With his massive power, speed and plus batting averages, he’s the young Alex Rodriguez of the outfield.

That said, the second tier offers some nice talent and I’m sure some will feel that the first tier could be expanded. Carl Crawford matched his best two seasons with another .300/15/60 effort, and at 28 there’s no real reason to predict a downfall next year. If you’d like your speedster to come with a few home runs, he’s one of probably two players in the league capable of putting up 15 home runs alongside 55+ stolen bases. Matt Holliday is sort of a Braun-lite, but if the stars aligned, his power could surge and make them practically indistinguishable for fantasy purposes.

That’s where the arguments should end. Jason Bay is on the way down along with his batting average, and even with his nice power and a sprinkling of stolen bases, he’s no first-tier player. Manny Ramirez just won’t play enough games next year, shold be on the way down just because of his age (37), and now has the PED question mark. Adam Lind may someday be in the conversation for the first tier, but the power currently has too many question marks (+.100 ISO from 2008-2009).

The third tier is the value tier. The best tiers are the ones where up-and-coming youngsters share space with declining veterans because one or the other is sure to be over- or under-valued in a given league. Does your tier value veterans too highly? Let them have Carlos Lee and his waning power and speed. Someone sure that Alfonso Soriano will rediscover his mojo? Pick the surging Nolan Reimold for his power and enjoy his surprising speed many rounds later. Even Johnny Damon’s metronome-like 20/20-ish production deserves a look here. Given all of these options, it does look like Raul Ibanez won’t be on many of my teams next year. Not when I can possibly get more power from Carlos Quentin later on.

The last tier reminds us why we don’t pick outfielders too early. The final grouping boasts a player that could steal 40+ bases with a starting job in Julio Borbon, and a trio of sluggers that are likely to hit between 25-30 home runs in Matt LaPorta, Juan Rivera and Josh Willingham. Even the just-off candidates are interesting. If Seth Smith gets a starting job, he rockets up the list with .300/25/10 potential. Travis Snider is battling some strikeout issues at the major league level and doesn’t have a guaranteed job coming out of spring training, but deserves a mention because of his minor league numbers (1.094 OPS in AAA last year) and age (21).

One thing is clear when looking at the left fielders in 2010: Unless you’re getting Braun (or maybe Crawford), it’s wise to wait.

Two outfielders with similar names put up eerily similar fantasy numbers last year. Here are the respective numbers for Jason Bay and Jayson Werth:

JB:.267-36-119-103-13
JW: .268-36-99-98-20

The largest difference in any category is the 20 RBIs that separate them. As you might imagine, the two winded up with very similar dollar values. The RotoTimes Player Rater gave Bay’s season a $24.40 total while Werth’s received a $24.12 value.

But while those were very close, there were many, many more players who winded up with closer gaps in their dollar value. Many of these players played different positions and posted very different stats, but came out with similar values. For instance, check out these two lines:

A: .281-13-90-73-7
B: .243-31-90-84-2

Which one would you rather have?

Player A is James Loney, with an $8.53 value, while Player B is Dan Uggla, who checked in with an $8.52 total. Obviously, you would rather have Player B, once you know it was Uggla, a second baseman. The Player Rater does not take into account position scarcity. So, when making comparisons you either need to build in your own adjustments or focus on players at similar positions.

Let’s look at two players who have been compared recently by agent Scott Boras, in Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday. Boras, the agent for both, is trying to get a contract for Holliday similar to the one he arranged for Teixeira last year. The argument has been met with a lukewarm response from the baseball community, but is one that was fairly apt for fantasy purposes last year. Here are their fantasy numbers:

MT:.292-32-122-103-2
MH:.313-24-109-94-14

The Player Rater gave Teixeira a $25.70 value and Holliday a $25.52 one.

Another interesting comparison between two players with very different skills but similar overall values last season is Ian Kinsler and Michael Bourn. Kinsler’s power and Bourn’s speed produced virtually identical fantasy seasons.

IK:.253-31-86-101-31
MB: .285-3-35-97-61

The Player Rater had the two separated by just one penny, with Kinsler posting the higher value at $22.81 last season.

Dollar values are not a precise measurement and different sites will have different values for players. These are best used as a rough estimate of value and as a reminder that owners (and players) can acquire value in a multitude of ways.

Matt Holliday’s value was a big question mark coming into the year, as fantasy (and real) owners did not know what to expect from Holliday in the American League.

Many owners freaked out early on when Holliday started the year with a .240 average and only one home run in the first month of the season. Then, for some unknown reason, no one paid attention when he got back to his old self in May. He ended his A’s career after 93 games with a .286/.378/.454 line to go along with 11 homers and 54 RBI. After going back to the NL, Holliday exploded in a Cardinals lineup that also featured Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick. Holliday hit 13 home runs and drove in 55 in only 63 games, while posting a line of .353/.419/.604.

Holliday’s swing was a topic of conversation early on, mainly due to his slow start. His numbers tend to back this up, with his line drive rate dropping off from the low 20%’s to the mid teens. He also became more selective at the plate, swinging at less pitches and making contact more often. However, most of the patience at the plate came in Oakland, where they likely lectured him on the value of walking. When he got to St. Louis, he starting hacking again, with his swing% coming in above his career average.

Because of his resurgence as a Cardinal, his value is back where it was before the season began. He will be asking for Mark Teixeira money, and a team or two will likely come close to that in an effort to acquire an impact bat. The big boys in Boston, and both New York teams are going to be heavily involved in this process, with the Mets and Red Sox as the most likely landing points. The Cardinals aren’t just going to let him walk without making an effort, but in the end they may not have the leverage and money to pull it off. If the asking price gets too outrageous, teams will turn their attention to Jason Bay, but Holliday is certainly the first option.

If Holliday ends up in Boston, don’t be afraid of how he will fare in the AL. Fenway is a much better place for him to play than Oakland was, and the talent they can put around him will greatly increase his chances for success in the AL East.

If Holliday leaves St. Louis, Albert Pujols isn’t likely to be too happy, but his numbers probably won’t reflect it. His numbers will still be insane, and he is still a top player going into next year, even without Holliday. Holliday leaving could mean free agent Rick Ankiel could return as the everyday left fielder, but the Cardinals are more likely to look outside for help.

Stock Up

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know, everyone reading this site is well aware of Mr. Mauer’s exploits this season. But as Dave Cameron recently noted, we’re entering historic territory here; Joe could be having the best offensive season of any backstop, ever.

The 26 year-old with the silky-smooth lefty swing has performed like a Ted Williams/Josh Gibson hybrid, batting an unfathomable .378/.449/.638, with a .457 wOBA. Despite not making his 2009 debut until May 1st, Mauer has accumulated 6.6 Wins Above Replacement. That leads all major league players. That’s like a sprinter giving his competition a head start, and then dusting them all anyway, running the last quarter of the race backwards for kicks.

I’m not going to delve too deeply into MVP voting philosophy here-the reason for an ostensibly individual award being tethered to team performance has always evaded me. Should we penalize Mauer for not being able to put Delmon Young on base via telekinesis? But, here’s a quick Mauer/Teixeira comparison, with their respective ranks in WAR among hitters:

Mauer: 6.6 WAR, 1st
Teixeira: 4.1 WAR, 24th

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Carp essentially didn’t pitch the past two seasons, yet he has returned with a vengeance in 2009. He has been fortunate with a .268 BABIP and a 5.8 HR/FB%, but even when one corrects for those numbers, the 34 year-old is among the very best in the game. In 145.2 IP, Carpenter owns a 3.38 XFIP (based on a pitcher’s walks, strikeouts and a normalized HR/FB rate). Only Lincecum, Vazquez and Haren can top that mark in the NL.

Carpenter does everything that one desires from a starter: he misses a decent amount of bats (6.86 K/9), is extremely stingy with the walks (1.42 BB/9) and wages a ground-based assault on opposing batters (54.7 GB%). Everything in Carp’s bag of tricks is working: his 93 MPH fastball (+2.13 runs/100 pitches), 87 MPH slider/cutter (+1.89 runs/100) and 75 MPH curve (+1.82) give hitters fits.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

What’s a guy got to do to get a promotion around here? LaPorta (the centerpiece of last summer’s Sabathia blockbuster with Milwaukee) posted a robust .299/.380/.530 at AAA Columbus. The 6-2 right-handed batter worked the count well (11.1 BB%), lowered his whiff rate (16.6%) and also posted a .231 ISO. Yet, LaPorta received only a small cameo with the big club earlier in the year. Manager Eric Wedge also made some mildly alarming comments about the slugger back in April:

“LaPorta is so young, just out of college. He’s off to a good start, and his day will come.” (Ohio.com)

Why is that alarming? Well, 1). LaPorta is 24 years old, 2). he’s a polished hitter out of the University of Florida, and 3). he was a senior sign, as an injury during his junior season caused him to slip in the draft, and 4). LaPorta has a career .291/.384/.557 line in the minors. That profile looks about as major league-ready as possible.

LaPorta’s ultimate position has yet to be determined, but he should provide plenty in the secondary skills department (walks and power) for Cleveland and fantasy owners alike.

Charlie Haeger, Dodgers

Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball features an eclectic mix of human beings. Within the confines of one clubhouse, you may well find a guy tall enough to play power forward in the NBA, and another who couldn’t scrape the “You Must Be This Tall To Ride” sign at an amusement park. There are ivy-league educated players, guys signed out of Latin America at age 16 and Far East Imports. That clubhouse likely has a bonus baby with a seven-figure bank account, and a minor league journeyman used to crashing at Motel 8’s and chowing down on peanut butter sandwiches.

In short, baseball is a sport full of atypical people. And flutterball specialists have a special place in the hears of most fans. Haeger, a former White Sox prospect who also briefly appeared with the Padres, has made two pretty successful starts for the Dodgers. The soon-to-be 26 year-old did posted a 4.67 FIP at AAA Albuquerque, and has allowed 3 runs with a 9/4 K/BB with the Dodgers in 14 frames. For more on Haeger, check out Erik Manning’s post here.

Matt Holliday, Cardinals

So much for the whole..”can’t hit outside of Coors” thing. Holliday has long been a quality hitter, cozy home ballpark or no. He posted an average of +41.8 Batting Runs per season from 2006-2008 (that’s park-adjusted), and his obscene hitting with the Cardinals has boosted his 2009 Batting Runs total to 28.6. He’ll likely finish the season somewhere around +35 to +37 Batting Runs, pretty close to his production in the sudsy wonderland of the Rockies. The pending free agent is a superstar, no matter where he plays his ball games.

Stock Down

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals

Lohse did not appear fully healthy upon returning from a forearm strain. He was blasted for.320/.353/.547 opponent line in August, and now heads back to the DL with a groin strain. In the first year of a 4-year, $41 M deal, Lohse has provided 0.8 WAR ($3.7 M worth of value). The Cardinals have to hope he’ll bounce back, as Kyle is owed about $8.9M in 2010 and roughly $11.9M in both 2011 and 2012.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

There’s a laundry list of reasons as to why the Cubs currently have less than a 1-in-17 chance of making the playoffs. Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto suffered injuries. Milton Bradley’s power was abducted by aliens on the way to Wrigley. The mileage on Big Z’s arm at a young age appears to be making him increasingly fragile.

Soriano’s sordid 2009 season has contributed to the mess as well. After posting wOBA’s of .380 and .374 during his first two seasons with the Cubs, Soriano has fallen off a cliff to .313 this year. Some of that dip might be poor luck on balls put in play- Soriano’s BABIP is .278, and according to this expected BABIP calculator, Alfonso’s BABIP “should” be around .305.

That still doesn’t fully explain Soriano’s season, though. His HR/FB% has fallen from 17.1% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2009. He’s still hitting fastballs well (+0.67 runs/100 pitches), though not at his usual prolific level (+1.93 career). However, Soriano has posted negative run values (curves and changeups have been particularly poisonous) against every other pitch except for cutters.

Soriano will make $18 million annually from 2010-2014, his age 34-38 seasons. If a win above replacement is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then Alfonso must produce a full 4 WAR per season for the Cubs to break even on the exchange. Color me skeptical that he’ll come anywhere near that level.

Michael Bowden, Red Sox

Bowden’s placement here isn’t really about his debacle of a relief appearance against the Yankees on August 21st (though I’m sure he would like to erase the 2-inning, 7 R disaster from his memory bank, Men In Black-style). Rather, it’s about his larger body of work in the minors this season.

The 2005 supplemental first-rounder wreaked havoc on batters in a 2008 season split between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket (144.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9), but 2009 has been more of a shrug-inducing effort. That’s not to say that Bowden has been bad, but his numbers with the Paw Sox (115.1 IP, 6.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) are a little underwhelming.

The 6-3, 215 pound righty has a quality curve and changeup, but he tends to use a fastball of modest velocity and movement up in the zone. That leads to boat loads of flyballs- Bowden’s GB% in AAA was just 31 percent. An extreme flyball pitcher, in the AL, is going to need more than average control to perform well (Bowden’s Major League Equivalent FIP in his time with Pawtucket was 5.13).

John Lannan, Nationals

Lannan’s ERA in 2008 (3.91) was considerably lower than his XFIP (4.47), and he has outdone his XFIP again this season (4.03 ERA, 4.74 XFIP). However, the gap is closing, with the lefty getting drubbed for 19 runs in 18 August frames. He has issued 11 walks, while punching out nine batters.

The 24 year-old boasts above-average control (2.97 BB/9 in 2009) and groundball tendencies (51.3 GB%). However, his strikeout rate has dipped from slightly below average in 2008 (5.79 K/9) to an untenable 3.75 per nine frames. Compared to last season, hitters are chasing fewer of his pitches (26.1% in ’08, 21.3% in ’09; 25% MLB avg.) and are making more contact (83.1 contact% in ’08, 89% in ’09; 80.6% MLB avg). He’s certainly a serviceable back-rotation hurler, but Lannan is more of a 4.50 ERA+ guy than the high-3, low 4 ERA pitcher that we have seen so far.

Alex Gordon, Royals

The ethics of service time manipulation has become a hot topic of late. We have seen potential “Super Two” players down the road (guys with more than two but less than three years of service time, in the top 17% of service time among players in the class) being kept down until the financial coast is clear (think Travis Snider) and other established young vets like J.J. Hardy being farmed out in order to push back free agency by a year.

Gordon falls into the discussion now. By sending the former Nebraska star back to AAA, the Royals delay Gordon’s free agency by a season. While the timing is awfully convenient, the 25 year-old has endured a nightmarish season. He missed a considerable chunk of the year following hip surgery, and has posted a paltry .290 wOBA in 110 PA. He often rolled over on the ball, hitting grounders at a 51.5% clip. Gordon was supposed to be a star by now, and he appeared to make progress in 2008 by upping his walk rate considerably. He’s no sure-fire stud anymore, but I don’t think it’s time to write him off, either.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Brett Cecil and J.J. Hardy last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Ramon Hernandez – Throughout his career, Hernandez has delivered solid HR totals for a catcher. In his last three seasons, he averaged nearly 16 HR per season. So far this year, Hernandez has only one homer. The Great American Ball Park is the sixth-best park for HR this year, according to the single-season park factors at ESPN. Hernandez is not hitting as many fly balls as he has recently, but the falloff has not been dramatic (only 1.5% below last year) and he should deliver more power going forward.

Matt Harrison – After giving up 15 ER in his first 14.2 IP, Harrison has allowed just six ER in his last 30 innings. It would be nice if he struck out a few more batters, but his BABIP is .301, he gets groundballs (1.40 GB/FB) and he has a 0.81 HR/9. The big lefty averages nearly 91 with his fastball, throws four pitches and his FIP is almost identical to his ERA.

Billy Butler – In his first 18 games of the season, Butler had a .193 AVG with zero HR and three RBIs. Since then he has a .348-3-15-15-0 fantasy line, also in 18 games. Butler arrived in the majors with a reputation of being a good hitter with limited defensive value. He has found a home at first base and the bat may be finally coming around. Butler probably won’t hit enough HR to be a starting first baseman but should have a good average and double-digit HRs.

Brian Tallet – A reliever at the beginning of the year, Tallet moved into the rotation on April 24th and has pitched very well as a starter in four of his five outings. The lone bad start was a meltdown, in which he allowed 10 ER in four innings, and that is keeping his overall numbers high. Tallet is owned in less than two percent of ESPN leagues and is a nice pickup for the back of your rotation.

Matt Holliday – Overrated at the beginning of the year with an ADP of 12, Holliday compounded things by getting off to a terrible start. But the average is starting to pick up and he has hit three HR in May after posting zero in April. Clearly, he is not going to be the fantasy stud that he was in Colorado, but ZiPS projects him to hit .284 with 19 HR and 77 RBIs the rest of the season.

Trade

Russell Branyan – A near lock to post career highs in every single fantasy category, Branyan is unlikely to keep up his current rate of production. No one ever doubted his power but his .368 BABIP and .333 ISO are unsustainable over a full season. A platoon or bench player throughout his career, Branyan has done it for six-plus weeks now as a full-time player and there should be a market for his bat, especially from an owner light on HR.

Jered Weaver – In his last six games, Weaver has five Quality Starts. But he’s been the beneficiary of some good fortune. Overall, he has a .228 BABIP and an 84.1 percent strand rate. Weaver has had an ERA within 0.50 of his FIP the past two seasons but this year his FIP is 4.10 compared to a 2.59 ERA.

Pedro Feliz – He has never been a good hitter for average because his BABIP has never topped .300 in any season in which he played more than 10 games. This year it sits at .343 which has led to a .308 AVG. Feliz used to be a consistent power source. He hit between 20-22 HR in four straight seasons but saw his power output drop to 14 last year. His FB% is in decline and he will need to reverse that trend (and hope for a regression in his HR/FB rate) just to match 2008’s output.

Wandy Rodriguez – One of the top fantasy pitchers so far in 2009, Rodriguez has flown somewhat under the radar due to the fantastic starts by Zack Greinke and Johan Santana. Most of Rodriguez’ numbers do not scream out regression but they are all better than career norms, which has a nice overall effect. The one exception is that he has not allowed a single HR this season in 52 IP, despite playing half his games in Minute Maid Park, which is the third-best park for HR this year.

Fred Lewis – Last year Lewis proved he could handle a full-time role and he opened the year in the coveted third-spot in the Giants’ lineup. Since then he has hit for a solid average but not produced much in other categories. Lewis has also bounced around in the lineup, batting every slot in the order except cleanup. That makes it hard to predict his R, RBI and SB going forward. ZiPS does not see him improving on last year’s numbers and even sees him falling off in AVG. Trade him now while his .294 AVG still looks good.

While the paperwork is not yet finalized and physicals still need to be taken, all indications are that slugging left fielder Matt Holliday is headed to Oakland for outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, left-handed starter Greg Smith and reliever Huston Street.

With a couple of outstanding young starting prospects on the way in Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, as well as several other well-regarded arms (Gio Gonzalez, James Simmons and Vince Mazzaro) close to contributing, the Athletics are seemingly gearing up for a run at contention in the AL West. While that might seem overly optimistic at first glance, it is important to keep in mind that the Angels significantly outperformed their Pythagorean Record in 2008: according to the club’s runs scored and runs allowed, the Angels “should” have finished 88-74, as opposed to 100-62. Adding Holliday’s bat to an oft-anemic offense, coupled with likely improvement from Daric Barton, the return to health of Travis Buck and perhaps something of a bounceback from Mark Ellis could be enough to push the Angels, especially if we’re talking about a post-Teixeira squad.

What exactly does Holliday’s move to the A’s mean for fantasy owners? The first, instantaneous reaction most will have is that Holliday’s numbers will plummet without a cozy, Coors-aided home ballpark. Holliday has hit a Herculean .357/.423/.645 at home, as opposed to a more tame .280/.348/.455 on the road, but I think we need to discuss the predictive value of home/road splits for a moment.

While there’s no denying that Coors Field is a significantly better hitting environment than Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum, throwing out Holliday’s home stats (i.e. half of his data sample) simply because of this is akin to throwing out the baby with the bath water. As Dave Cameron has pointed out, Holliday has been one of the better hitters in the game, even adjusting for the context of his home ballpark. From 2006-2008, Holliday has ranked 18th, 5th, and 10th, respectively, among all major league hitters in terms of WPA/LI. In terms of Equivalent Average (a Baseball Prospectus stat that also adjusts for home ballpark as well as base running prowess), Holliday has ranked 11th, 12th, and 11th, respectively, from 2006-2008. In other words, the 29 year-old is a top-15 hitter, regardless of where he plays his home games.

In addition to his patience and pop, Holliday has also shown wheels that belie his 6-4, 235 pound frame. The A’s are generally a conservative lot on the base paths (not a bad idea, considering the “break even” rate for SB’s is about 75%), but Holliday’s high-percentage thievery (28 for 30 in 2008, or 93.3%) should give him more autonomy than most.

Over the next few months, you’ll likely hear a lot about how Holliday’s numbers will fall precipitously now that he no longer has the thin Rocky Mountain air at his disposal. While his numbers may take somewhat of a downturn, do not mistake Holliday for a Coors Field creation: he’ll likely continue to rake and be a valuable commodity, both to fantasy owners and to the A’s.