Archive for Marco Estrada

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Shane Bieber (Cleveland Indians) – The only reason Bieber qualifies is his lack of security inside the Indians rotation. It’s possible he only sticks for one more start – Thursday against the Tigers – as Carlos Carrasco returns from his short DL stint, but the possibility that he gets more starts alone should be enough to grab in most leagues now. And even if it’s just for one start, his control-heavy approach with a good fastball and solid secondary offerings make him a good play for Thursday’s matchup.

Read the rest of this entry »

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays) – This could be nothing, but it could be something as Marco Estrada has dominated in his last two starts, allowing 3 ER in 12 frames against the Yankees and Orioles, posting a wonderful 15/1 strikeout per walk ratio. His fastball has been toxic through the season, but has performed wildly better in these starts, suggesting that maybe, just maybe, a corner has been turned that could spell better days. One more great start will exile him from this weekly article, and this might be your only chance to act.

Read the rest of this entry »

The season numbers aren’t great but we’ve picked up some steam over the last few weeks and hopefully will finish strong. As always, if you have any suggestions or tips, please feel free to mention them in the comments section, and thank you for reading.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through most of Week 21)

38-40 record
4.84 ERA
7.7 K/9
2.4 K/BB
1.42 WHIP
41 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Marco Estrada – 47.8% ESPN – v. BAL (100), @MIN (100)

He’s either been really good or really bad of late, but over his last nine starts has a respectable 3.98 ERA and .709 OPS against in 54.1 innings. He won’t get much offensive support, but he also feels relatively stable among pitchers who are owned under 50% — a tough lot to crack at this point of the year. If you prefer, go with one of the guys at the bottom.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez – 34.6% ESPN – v. OAK (101), @TBR (98)

I’m just gambling on the talent here. Rodriguez has fanned more than a batter per inning this season (9.7 K/9), and his ERA (a so-so 4.33) is supported by a better FIP (4.04). His second half has not been particularly pretty (5.22 ERA), but he’s still got 53 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 50 innings, and both of these matchups are OK, though not great.

RHP Kyle Gibson – 18% ESPN – v. SD (85), v. TOR (90)

A move on the rubber has helped Gibson be absolutely terrific over the last month-and-a-half. Since then — he told me he made the change after the start in Houston on July 16 — he’s posted a 3.19 ERA, .682 OPS against and 38-11 K/BB ratio in 48 innings. Not only is he inducing grounders at a solid rate — like always — but he’s also got an 11% swinging-strike rate over that stretch. Grounders plus a swing-and-miss slider against two awful offenses? Sign me up.

Last men out: Hyun-jin Ryu (@SF, @WAS), Brandon Woodruff (v. PIT, @MIA)

Today inaugurates what will likely several weeks of depth chart discussions. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Toronto Blue Jays‘ rotation and bullpen situations.

The Rotation

Frankly, it seems clear-cut at the top. Marcus Stroman isn’t an ace, contemporarily speaking, but his blend of sharp command and ground ball tendencies make him an attractive mid-rotation option. R.A. Dickey, the former National League Cy Young Award winner, hasn’t generated much in the way of fantasy value in standard leagues but, nonetheless, slots in as the team’s #2.

I wouldn’t say it gets dicier from there, but: it gets dicier from there.

Marco Estrada is, presumably, the Blue Jays’ #3. And while a two-year, $26 million contract would certainly warrant it, keep in mind that Estrada hasn’t stuck in the rotation for a full season — ever. Well, except in 2013, he did, but he only started 21 games. Why has he bounced back and forth, you ask?

You didn’t ask, because you already know. The answer screams in your face: Estrada has allowed 92 home runs in 99 starts. His 1.42 HR/9 as a starter is the second-highest among those who have thrown at least 550 innings since 2011. If the Blue Jays want to let their opponents to go punch for punch with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, they found their man.

Problem is, the solutions aren’t significantly better. J.A. Happ comes off his best season, during which he scraped together one-third of his career WAR (wins above replacement) in about one-sixth of his career playing time. Fractions, man. Anyway, he shaved off a big chunk of the walk rate (BB%) that made him largely ineffective for the majority of his rather long and decidedly lackluster career, and it propped him up.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Brewers’ starting rotation got much more interesting last week, as they inked right-hander Matt Garza to a four-year deal with a vesting option. He and Kyle Lohse should headline a rotation that could surprise some people who wrote them off after posting a 4.13 ERA and 4.23 FIP in the first half last year.

In the second half, the Brewers’ rotation collectively turned a corner. Their 3.42 ERA was better than the Cardinals and Athletics in the latter half of the season, and it hints at what could be brewing in Milwaukee if the majority of breaks go the Brewers’ way. Marco Estrada was a beast down the stretch, Wily Peralta displayed signs of putting it together, and Yovani Gallardo finally tightened the tourniquet and stopped the bleeding.

Adding Matt Garza to the mix gives the Brewers five solid starters with a pair of intriguing arms waiting in the wings with Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson. It’s not a top-heavy rotation that will awe opposing teams, but it’s a rotation that could pair a couple number-two starters with three mid-rotation guys. Of course, that’s banking on no severe regression from anyone, but the organization has quietly assembled a starting rotation that projects to be at least league average.

But let’s look at the fantasy value because the name brands may not be where the value truly lies.

Read the rest of this entry »

In many ways, this article is going to be a rehashing of the Marco Estrada article I wrote prior to the 2013 season. The core aspects haven’t changed. Estrada continues to offer an above-average strikeout rate, a stellar WHIP due to a low walk rate and encouraging fielding independent numbers.

I stated in August:

If the home run rate doesn’t become too unworkable, there’s so much to like about Marco Estrada.

Those words epitomized his injury-shortened performance last year. The right-hander saw his home run rate skyrocket in the first half to an untenable 1.82 HR/9. Expectedly, his overall numbers suffered as he compiled a nasty 5.32 ERA and 4.75 FIP, but the above-average strikeout-to-walk ratio remained. It was unreasonable to project his home run rate to stabilize at such a high level, which is why Estrada was a prime buy-low candidate late in the season for owners who were searching for improved pitching for the playoff stretch.

Read the rest of this entry »

Right-hander Marco Estrada was a popular sleeper for 2013, and I certainly championed that cause. After all, he was coming off a season in which he compiled a 3.35 FIP with more than a strikeout per inning and an ADP (average draft position) between 225-250. He represented solid value and legitimate upside in the later rounds.

Unfortunately, it didn’t work out. The 30-year-old hurler struggled with the long ball and owned a 5.32 ERA when he landed on the disabled list with a hamstring injury in early June. His peripheral numbers remained solid, but his home run rate of 1.82 HR/9 ranked among the worst in the league in the first half. It undermined any chance he had to post a respectable earned run average.

Most owners understandably dropped Estrada, especially when his hamstring injury lingered longer than expected and he missed 58 games in June and July. Since returning, though, the right-hander is reminding fantasy owners why analysts included him in so many sleeper lists prior to the season. It may be time to swipe him off the waiver wire, as he’s only owned in 14.1% of ESPN leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

Damn you, internet! Damn you, hordes of fantasy sports writers churning out an over-abundance of content! It used to be so easy; so much fun. I would dominate my fantasy baseball league year after year and there was no greater ego boost than sitting there on draft day, listening to the chorus of “Who’s?” after making what I knew to be a tremendous and pretty sneaky pick in the later rounds and knowing that the player I just grabbed was going to impress all year and be a heavy trade target for my competition in no time. They used to be called sleepers. Now, thanks to all of you, they’re the trendiest picks in the draft and are losing their value year after year. Read the rest of this entry »

Of starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last year, the top three strikeout-to-walk ratios belonged to Cliff Lee, Colby Lewis, and … Marco Estrada. His 5.32 K/BB as a starter helped propel him to an overall 3.64 ERA, which marked the best season of his career and put him on fantasy radar for the first time.

The 29-year-old doesn’t possess a power repertoire that naturally leads to lofty strikeout rates, but Estrada proved to be a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners who plucked him off the waiver wire last season. He ended the 2012 season with the tenth-highest strikeout rate (9.26 K/9) among starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings.

But perhaps fantasy owners shouldn’t have been surprised that Estrada could rack up the strikeouts once he was given a full-time role in the starting rotation. After all, he has a career 9.02 K/9 strikeout rate and a career 10.2% swinging-strike rate. His career has only been 262.1 innings over bits and pieces of the past five years, but at the very worst, this is becoming a legitimate trend worth watching.

Marco Estrada offered more than just strikeouts last season, though, which is what makes him such an intriguing sleeper for the 2013 season. The right-hander also severely limited free passes, which helped him maintain a low WHIP (1.14). He was one of the few pitchers available in later rounds — or the waiver wire — who offered an above-average strikeout rate without sacrificing WHIP or ERA last year.

His 3.64 ERA also appears sustainable. His 3.35 FIP and 3.19 SIERA suggest he actually pitched better than his 2012 ERA otherwise indicates. Estrada occasionally struggles with giving up home runs — and that issue can be exacerbated by mostly pitching in Miller Park — but his home run rate was only slightly above the league average last season. He is essentially a lock to serve as the Brewers’ number-two starter and should be the beneficiary of a potent Brewers offense. That could lead to a double-digit win total for Estrada, which would be yet another advantage for fantasy owners in standard roto leagues.

Some have expressed concern regarding his slight velocity drop from 2011 to 2012. He dropped almost a mile per hour on his average fastball from 91.0 mph to 90.2 mph, but it’s important to remember that his 2011 velocity numbers mostly came out of the bullpen. That obviously lends itself to higher velocities. Most likely, Estrada’s velocity dip is most likely a result of transitioning to the starting rotation, not an indication of a potential injury.

Despite Estrada’s career year in 2012, he doesn’t project to cost and arm and a leg on draft day. In the most recent auction draft discussed on this site, Estrada went for $4. In the most recent snake draft, he wasn’t drafted until round 18. For a starting pitcher who can potentially provide value in strikeouts, WHIP, ERA, and wins, that’s a steal.