After trending the wrong way for more than a month, Luke Weaver pulls into the All-Star break with two of his strongest outings of the year. Just when it seemed safe to start Chase Anderson again, he finished his first half with a sputter.
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A few weeks ago, I took a deep dive on Luke Weaver, budding Cardinals No. 2 and Adam Wainwright torch-taker. I came out of it reluctant to invest in him at his hefty asking price: per National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) data, 27th among starting pitchers and 105th overall. His lackluster swinging strike rate (SwStr%) indicated to me he could not sustain his lofty 28% strikeout rate (K%) when pitchers of similar SwStr% caliber had strikeout rates ranging from 18% at worst to 25% at best. The best, in that instance, was Aaron Nola. I doubted Weaver could compare so favorably, primarily because Nola steals strikes in a way few others can.
What I failed to do — what I should’ve done — is check. Duh! I should’ve checked how often Weaver earns called strikes. So I did, and I came away feeling even more scared than before. Turns out, I’m an idiot who botched some simple arithmetic: Weaver falls just outside the top quartile of pitchers in stealing strikes, as opposed to literally 3rd-worst like I claimed in the previously linked Tweet. That would’ve been really bad. Still, this miscalculation and subsequent mischaracterization of Weaver’s ability sent me on a quest of ultimately marginal value.
The more I looked at Weaver’s plate discipline peripherals, the more I realized Weaver doesn’t coerce many swings-and-misses out of the zone. He’s actually pretty bad at it. That means he generates most of his success in the zone, which, to me, seemed unusual. I was nervous that thriving by threading the needle — i.e., pounding the zone (assuming some semblance of command) and hoping for whiffs — might be a dangerous way to live, or that, at the very least, a young pitcher for whom the proverbial book on him isn’t out yet might be subject to regression in this particular area. The freshly FanGraphs-retired Eno Sarris thought thriving in the zone is better than thriving outside the zone:
More often than not, I write to hype a player who has wowed me in one way or another. Sometimes, I have to put a damper on things. Through 20 National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) drafts, Luke Weaver’s average draft position (ADP) stands at a pearly 111th overall and 28th among starting pitchers.
Weaver’s 36-inning debut freaked me out a bit. It was evident he could capably prevent baserunners, or, through 20% of a season, he could at least fake it. His 3.34 xFIP suggested as much, even in spite of his abhorrent 31% ground ball rate (GB%). Everything else stunk — all the luck metrics broke the wrong way in a small sample — but it was enough to suggest a bright future for the former 1st-rounder was imminent.
I planned to avoid Weaver at all costs in 2017 because of his fly ball tendencies exclusively; I simply did not want to suffer the wrath of a juiced ball because some small-sample strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) goodness seduced me. Turns out, batted ball metrics can also feel the wrath of randomness in small samples, as his ground ball rate spiked to an above-average 50%. Some of the luck metrics tempered a bit, and the result was a 29% strikeout rate (K%) and defense-independent metrics that suggested he should nearly have a flat 3.00 ERA. It’s almost like there’s a reason why this 24-year-old kid was drafted in the 1st round or something.
I’m here to pump the brakes. I’m not sold on Weaver’s peripherals. I’m willing to let you convince me otherwise, but allow me to explain.
Entering Monday’s bout with the Cubs, Luke Weaver was a popular topic of discussion. Boasting a 2.05 ERA, 11.11 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, and minuscule 1.03 WHIP through 52.2 innings, the 24-year-old was debated as a possible Top 30 starter for the 2018 season ahead. However, after the 3.0 IP, 8 ER outing, Weaver’s ERA inflated to 3.23, leaving some to wonder if his success was a mirage.
It’s the one blemish on Weaver’s resume that will be discussed plenty in the off-season, and I wanted to get a head start as we begin mock drafts and selecting keepers for the following year. I’ve watched every pitch Weaver threw during this game and join me as I dissect what went wrong across three turbulent innings. Read the rest of this entry »
Alright so we’re back here for another edition of #2xSP. There aren’t many left of these this year, so maybe it’s time to reflect, or at least look forward. I think a reasonably fair goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00, strikeouts above 8.0 per nine innings and maybe, just maybe sneak that K/BB up over 3.0. It’s fair to say this year has gone markedly better than last: 4.66 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.2 K/BB and 1.41 WHIP, and this year is more consistent with the previous two years in the now four-year (?!?) track record of this column.
Here’s where we stand so far this season:
42-40 record
3.95 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
59 quality starts
Real-world equivalent: roughly Jake Odorizzi?
Here are this week’s recs (with opponents wRC+ in parentheses):
LHP Tyler Anderson – 20.6% ESPN – v. SFG (101), @SDP (87)
With Anderson it flat out boils down to the fact that I love him. I love a guy who can get strikeouts (8.3 K/9), grounders (53.5%) and doesn’t walk many (2.2 BB/9), and that is even more true at Coors Field. He’s posted a 3.43 ERA that checks out peripherally, and I just don’t see that many red flags with him after 15 MLB starts. I’m cautiously optimistic he can handle Coors long-term, as he’s posted a 3.11 ERA at home versus a 4.21 mark on the road, but his opposing batter splits are flipped in that respect. Batters have hit .266/.318/.409 against him at Coors Field, and just .211/.267/.383 on the road. Even if the answer is somewhere in the middle, I think he’s a really solid guy moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »