Pitcher Spotlight: Luke Weaver’s 8 ER Disaster

Entering Monday’s bout with the Cubs, Luke Weaver was a popular topic of discussion. Boasting a 2.05 ERA, 11.11 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, and minuscule 1.03 WHIP through 52.2 innings, the 24-year-old was debated as a possible Top 30 starter for the 2018 season ahead. However, after the 3.0 IP, 8 ER outing, Weaver’s ERA inflated to 3.23, leaving some to wonder if his success was a mirage.

It’s the one blemish on Weaver’s resume that will be discussed plenty in the off-season, and I wanted to get a head start as we begin mock drafts and selecting keepers for the following year. I’ve watched every pitch Weaver threw during this game and join me as I dissect what went wrong across three turbulent innings.

First Inning

The first batter of Weaver’s night was business as usual. Weaver pumped a Fastball right along the outside corner for strike one to Jon Jay and it was a perfect example of why many are excited for the young pitcher:

After getting to 0-2 with another heater, nearly getting the strikeout with a 96mph Fastball just off the outside corner and bouncing a Changeup, Weaver came back with a 1-2 Changeup over the plate and everything seems perfect in the world for a brief moment:

No red flags, no alarm bells, nothing but sweet Weaver bliss to lure us into a false sense of security. Leave it to Kris Bryant to begin the calamity.

Here’s a GIF of Bryant’s three-pitch at-bat that resulted in a single to right field:

Weaver tried to hit the spot on the outside corner on three straight pitches and Bryant wised up to smack it to right-field. I can’t fault Weaver for this one. Maybe mix it up slightly, but it’s the second batter of the game and he barely missed on the two pitches prior. Not to mention, the final pitch was located right along the outside edge. This is just baseball, nothing to worry about.

His next batter was Anthony Rizzo, which ended with this pitch:

Okay, now we can begin to worry. None of these pitches were very close to the plate, missing twice away, once inside, and once above the zone all with Fastballs. This may have been a product of Weaver entering the stretch for the first time of the game. While pitching from the windup, Weaver likes to take his time dropping his back knee and gliding to the plate. However, from the stretch he speeds up the process significantly, launching himself toward home sooner and forcing his arms to act quicker in order to catch up. This isn’t uncommon among starters, but it may be a key to the rest of the outing and future starts. I’ll be touching on this a little more later.

(Sidenote: Weaver holds a 1.05 BB/9 with the bases empty compared to a 3.48 BB/9 with men on base this year, though the sample size isn’t large enough to insinuate a major problem just yet.)

After the walk, Weaver got ahead 0-1 to Willson Contreras, with a Fastball on the outside corner. Solid. He ended the at-bat with a 1-1 Changeup that hung a bit in the middle-away part of the plate, but Contreras was caught on his front foot, resulting in a lazy liner to left field for an out:

I both love and hate this pitch. On one hand, it shows how deceptive Weaver’s Changeup can be, getting an out due to a 10mph difference between his Fastball and Changeup. On the other, the command on this Changeup isn’t as sharp as we’ve seen in the past and I can’t help but feel he got away with one here.

If you want to argue that Weaver was lucky for his second out, his fortune quickly faded in his next at-bat versus Ben Zobrist, who cued a ball down the line for an infield single:

This screams “Weaver should be out of this inning,” but at the same time, the three pitches prior leading to the 2-1 count were all sub-par: an 0-0 Curveball that landed in the dirt, a Changeup in the heart of the plate, and a Fastball that never looked like a strike in the opposite batter’s box. It’s impressive that he induced such a poorly hit ball in a 2-1 count, but this at-bat was going south and there’s something to be said about that.

With the bases-loaded now, Weaver was still very close to getting out of the inning unscathed, getting to 1-2 count against Addison Russell with two Fastballs near the middle of the plate – one fouled, one swung through. I was actually a bit surprised to see another Fastball thrown at 1-2, especially one with the intent of hitting the outside corner:

Weaver gave Russell the same look three times (just like with Bryant!) and even though the third was the best offering of the lot, Russell got his timing right to slap it to right field for a base-clearing double. I wouldn’t say this is Weaver pitching poorly and that he’s getting what his peripherals suggested, but I also wouldn’t say that Weaver deserved a goose egg this inning either.

But it’s not even over. Weaver fell behind Jason Heyward 2-0, missing with his heaters both inside and outside, planting a weak Changeup outside for strike one, then serving up another double on an inside Fastball at 2-1:

It’s the same story again. The final pitch isn’t a mistake – in fact, Weaver hit his spot perfectly – but Heyward was looking for an inside Fastball in a hitter’s count, a count that Weaver should not have gotten himself into.

Weaver finally ended the inning with a strikeout of Javier Baez, and it was good to see Weaver get ahead with a first-pitch Curveball (he had missed in the dirt earlier in the inning), eventually closing the door with a 2-2 Fastball taken for strike three.

After the opening inning, Weaver doesn’t look great. While he was just one strike away from a 0 ER frame, his command looks a little off, with his Changeup not having the same fade nor consistently low location that we’ve seen in the past. I’m not sold that he deserved all four of these runs against him, but this wasn’t a situation where he was doomed by poor luck.

Second Inning

To start the inning, Weaver was granted a gift of facing opposing pitcher Jon Lester, who he finished off with a classic Weaver heater along the outside corner:

It’s an easy out and Weaver took the time to reduce his velocity to ensure he was making the right pitches. He’s back in the windup and looks a lot more like his normal self.

Weaver’s next at-bat also went well. He started Jon Jay off with a first-pitch Curveball for a strike (great to see him execute it properly) and after getting a weak foul ball on 1-1, he earned a groundout with a decent Fastball. Nothing too out of the ordinary and not worth your time to scrutinize.

But we should take a good look at Weaver’s next at-bat, as Kris Bryant launched a 1-0 Fastball (following a missed first pitch Curveball) well out of the park:

This wasn’t a good pitch. At 1-0, Bryant is looking for a Fastball he can handle and Weaver doesn’t get it far enough inside to avoid Bryant’s barrel. On some days, this may have been a single, a double, or even an out if he were lucky, but today it was a longball. It’s that kind of day.

He recovered well against Anthony Rizzo, executing two Changeups to lead to an easy fly-out that ended the inning, and all-in-all it’s a great frame save for one bad pitch. At this point, there’s hope Weaver can be on the track to recovery and five innings are not out of the question.

Third Inning

There are times when I’m watching a pitcher and I feel a tinge of pain. I know what he’s going through and he simply can’t execute what he wants, while most likely second-guessing the pitch call he just made. It’s hard not to feel this way after watching his leadoff at-bat against Willson Contreras.

After getting ahead 0-2 with a pair of fastballs and a foul ball off a slightly elevated 96mph heater, Weaver turned to his Cutter, a pitch he hadn’t thrown once the entire game, to shut the door on the Cubs’ catcher:

It hurts. You have Contreras set up to chase out of the zone with a pair of off-speed pitches in a Curveball and Changeup that would be amplified by 96mph prior, and instead turns to his fourth best pitch that comes in at a hard 89mph and it fails him. Obviously, Weaver didn’t want this pitch to get this much of the plate, but trusting in it at a 3mph difference from the opening pitch of the at-bat (92mph Fastball) without exaggerated movement just seems wrong. And now he needs to pitch from the stretch again. It’s a tough day.

Weaver looked much better in the next at-bat to Ben Zobrist, painting the outside corner with a heater (textbook Weaver), then hitting the same spot in a 1-1 count with a Curveball for an easy force out:

Weaver seemed to be back on track and making the adjustments to calibrate his command. But then this at-bat happened:

I know. It’s an out! This is good! But Weaver didn’t properly execute a single pitch against Addison Russell, leaving a hanging Curveball on the inside edge that could have easily been crushed down the line. Fortunately, Russell was jammed a bit – he was likely looking heater away – but I want to feel confident about Weaver and even at this moment with two outs, I don’t. I’m nervous.

And on cue, Weaver walks Jason Heyward on five pitches. The final two offerings were some of the more wild pitches we’ve seen from Weaver and it was time to do some mechanical digging, comparing these poorly executed pitches with a better one prior. I think I may have found something, but I’ll let you be the judge.

First, here are the final pitches of this Heyward at-bat:

Now compare that to the GIF above of Weaver’s first-pitch Fastball to Zobrist:

There isn’t a major flaw that you can quickly spot. It’s possible he opened his front shoulder a bit too soon with the Changeup or simply released too late with his poor Fastball, but nothing that screams simple tweak right off the bat.

I slowed it down a bit and while it may be nothing, I thought you’d want to see it. Here’s a GIF of Weaver’s two Fastballs, one that missed to Heyward and one that was painted to Zobrist:

What I’m seeing here is the ball coming out of the glove slightly earlier to Zobrist. And I do mean slightly, but it could be the adjustment Weaver needs out of the stretch. An inconsistent rhythm from the set position to delivery can very well be the difference that has Weaver struggling to nail his timing and place pitches where he wants them. It’s not definitive, but something to consider.

Let’s move on. First-and-second, two out, and Weaver is laboring after walking Heyward, now set to face Javier Baez. After a good first pitch Changeup and another slow ball in the dirt for an easy take, Weaver turned to his Curveball that was hung like yesterday’s laundry:

Yep, that’s a deuce terrible alright. Baez was already conditioned for a lower velocity and even if he was expecting heat, this pitch was elevated enough that he could flick the bat head at the ball and give it a ride.

Weaver was given some relief facing Lester to close the inning on a weak fly-out, but the damage is done. 8-0 Cubs and the day is ruined.

Conclusion

There were three possible conclusions to reach after seeing this stat line without watching this game. 1) Weaver pitched the same as he had prior, but he’s just not that good and his previous good luck ran out. 2) Weaver pitched the same as he had prior, but he was incredibly unlucky and didn’t deserve his fate. 3) Weaver was off his game and was punished for it.

The clear answer is conclusion #3 as Weaver was a shadow of his previous self against the Cubs. There were a few scenarios of bad luck (Zobrist and Heyward singles) and Weaver was punished on all of his mistakes, but this wasn’t an outing where Weaver pitched to his ability, nor was he slammed in the face by the expected regression his 83.0% LOB rate had detailed in his first 8 starts.

Obviously, this performance as a whole raises concern for a full season in the majors and his draft stock deservedly should fall a bit, though from what I’ve seen in previous outings, I’m willing to chalk this game up more as an anomaly than a removed mask revealing Weaver’s true self. He still showed moments of what made him so praised prior – Fastballs at 95+ on the corner, Changeups that mimic his heater, and a Curveball that can sneak in for strikes – and it’s important to remember that the talent is still there. It’s possible this start helps as well, providing a learning experience for Weaver when he labors again in the future. Maybe it exposes the specific adjustments he needs to make, such as his arm release to fix his timing and finding his rhythm from the stretch.

I wouldn’t change my draft plan for 2018 based on this outing as I still see Luke Weaver as an arm that I’d be thrilled to own as my #3 starter in a standard 12-team league. This game was more like a bump in the road than a sign for a turbulent 2018 season. It’s baseball, this happens.