Archive for Jose Bautista

RotoGraphs is embarking on a series of player pro/con debates in an effort to thoroughly cover players that are particularly popular in either a positive or negative way.  Today, I’ll be discussing the pros of Nationals 1B/OF Mike Morse and Eno Sarris will tackle the cons on Monday.

The title of this post actually says it all and if I wanted to just type out his batting line over the last few weeks with the phrase, “nuff said,” that would probably cover it.  But for the sake of argument, and knowing that Eno will shred me if I don’t come up with enough evidential proof as to why Mike Morse is, indeed, fantasy gold, we’ll go a little further. Read the rest of this entry »

When I first sat down to write this week’s column, I was all set to spend my time bashing Adam Dunn.  You know, talk about how I built up the rest of my infield with the first two picks, grabbed King Felix in the third round and then, when all the other first base mashers were off the board, swoop in and steal Dunn and his 40 bombs in the fourth.  It was the “perfect” strategy right up until the part where Dunn decided he couldn’t hit anymore.  But then, as I was wrapping up my introduction, I got a text that changed my whole plan.  You know the text I’m talking about — the one from that guy in my primary league. Read the rest of this entry »

There has been a lot of shared pain at third base this season. We’re to a point where manning third base is like trying to find a reliable bat for the extra middle infielder slot: there are only a handful available and those who have, hold tight. There were several players many owners were relying on to emerge as useful fantasy regulars, and while the majority of those names haven’t lived up to expectations, there have been a couple guys contributing in surprising ways to help fill injury or ineptitude gaps.

When updating rankings back in May, my general feeling was that we ought not be too quick to throw players under the proverbial bus or to crown new kings after 100 at bats. But today, the gloves come off so to speak as there are some major moves up and down the third base tiers a third of the way through the season.

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Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield.  You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here.  As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA.  I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.

Middle Infield

Elite Three (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it):

Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75

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Blame it on the injuries.  Blame it on the fact that the once lush and dense forest of talent to be found at third base is thinning out faster than a middle aged guy’s hairline.  Blame it on Rio or the bellboy, I don’t really care.  The fact of the matter is, the position is like a fantasy nightmare that picks right back up where you left off no matter how many times you wake yourself up and try to calmly fall back asleep.  And it just keeps getting scarier each time. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, Jason rolled out our outfield rankings for the American League and upon scanning the list, I was left rather dissatisfied, like watching an episode of 30 Rock without Tracy Morgan getting the crazy eyes. For all of the talent in the outfield, there’s really only one guy that is being considered in the first round, and that’s not even a sure thing. It seems disingenuous to call outfield a thin position but when you need three outfielders, that means a minimum of 36 of these guys will be starting for someone, so you best find a couple towards the top.

Carl Crawford

The $142 million dollar man was mostly known for his legs, but being dropped into a batting order with some bonafide thuggery means he’s not necessarily going to need to be standing on second base to score anymore. No doubt Crawford will run, but his steals could dip south of 40 sans urgency and in an effort to preserve the investment (although he stole two in their game yesterday). Despite that, 100 runs is almost a guarantee and he is almost as likely to hit better than .300 and drive in 75-80 runs while giving you HR’s in the teens. That’s a spicy meatball.

Josh Hamilton

Josh Hamilton did his Hulk-smash thing for 133 games and made owners drool over the possibility of a full season of production. But no two words have more readily appeared in a player analysis than ‘if healthy’ to describe the fortunes of Hamilton headed into 2011. If he can stay on the field, he’d produce like a first rounder. But that he’s prone to injury is no secret, and it’s only the gambling sort of manager that will select him early in the second round, where he’s currently projected. I’ve seen age mentioned as another reason to be concerned about Hamilton, but he’s only 3 months older than the guy that tops this list, and he’s still a year junior to the likes of Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz, and Matt Holliday, and you don’t read a lot about their length of tooth too much.

Can he repeat what he did in 2010?  Probably not.  But give him 130 games and he can give you a .300 batting average with close to 30 home runs and triple digit RBI. But there’s about as good a chance he has 350 PA’s as 700, so have your nerve pills handy.

Shin-Soo Choo

The guy with the name that my kid loves to say, Choo is kind of an understated version of Matt Kemp with a more reliable batting average. He has become a proverbial take-it-to-the-bank .300 BA, 20 homers, 20 steals hitter which doesn’t arouse visions of rocket’s red glare, but you’re not going to find too many outfielders with the ability to check all five boxes the way Choo does. If some of the Cleveland kids can stay healthy enough (Grady Sizemore, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera), Choo ought to flirt with triple digit RBI as well as 85+ runs. No longer the sleeper pick, he’s coming off the board in the late 3rd/early 4th in most mixed, so if you’re a believer, you’ll have to pay for it.

Nelson Cruz

If I were feeling particularly impish, I’d just say “See Josh Hamilton” here. All the same things apply for the two Rangers. But I have to say that I enjoy watching Cruz hit because he inflicts pain on the ball like he’s the Clubber Lang of the Nation’s pastime. He hits for high average, drives in oodles of runs, and perhaps because of a reckless style of play, gets hurt frequently. You really have to plan on no more than 125 games with Cruz, and yet even in that number of games, he’s capable of hitting .290, pushing 30 home runs and 100 RBI. What’s even better is he’ll steal you 20 bags in between all the visits to the trainers room. However, I’d have to think there will come a time when he stops running so much to try and stave off some of the injuries, and that time might be 2011, so plan accordingly.

Jose Bautista

What he does for an encore after the whole Babe Ruth act, I don’t know. So much has been written about Bautista going into 2011, that I’m loath to add to it, so let’s just state the obvious: he’s unlikely to repeat those home runs, it’s entirely possible that he turns into some version of the guy he was with the Pirates, and it’s probably smart to plan on something in between the old and the new Jose. This leaves you with a risky pick, but a guy that ought to hit for a middling average, 30 home runs, and 90/90 runs/RBI. That he will be eligible for third base probably means that he won’t be in too many fantasy outfields, but nevertheless, the versatility is a plus.

I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.

Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Mauer (Expected, You)
My Pick: 25, 23
Average Pick: 19.2, 27.4
Median Pick: 20, 25
Pick Deviation: 9.9, 16.4

Interesting. Even after a year in which he was selected around twelfth and failed miserably to meet expectations, you all expect owners to take him less than ten picks later. I think he’ll go a little later at the 2-3 turn, and I’d be okay taking him there. For the most part, we’re arguing over nothing here, so let’s move on to Bautista.

Jose Bautista (Expected, You)
My Pick: 25, 92
Average Pick: 34.1, 41.9
Median Pick: 35, 40
Pick Deviation: 19.6, 24.5
– – –
My Dollar: 30, 15
Average Dollar: 24.5, 20.7
Median Dollar: 25, 20
Dollar Deviation: 7.9, 7.8

Okay, let’s start with the draft picks. As you can see, I’m not willing to take the chance on Bautista this year, and that’s not because I think he’ll be a total bust. I still think he’ll end up hitting at least 35 homers, but a low batting average combined with the strength of this year’s third base class (more on that sometime soon, and by soon I mean sometime before Spring Training) is not a recipe for an extremely valuable player. You are expecting Bautista to go later than I am, but are willing to pull the trigger on Bautista in the middle of the fourth round. Unless you expect him to hit another 50 home runs, this pick is probably going to be an overdraft.

Now onto the dollar amounts. I’m very happy that these dollar amounts correlate with the ADP numbers. A mid fourth-round pick is worth a little more than $20, so the relationship works out beautifully. Kudos to you for your knowledge and presence of mind. It’s strange that a player who hit over 50 homers last season would cost about $25 the following year, but that’s what has happened in the current age of speculation and doubt (you can speculate about what one might speculate about). I don’t think I’d mind spending $20 on Bautista if he wasn’t one of the first people nominated, but he won’t be. In auctions, I’d throw Bautista up there early and watch owners burn their money.

After a request from one of y’all, we’re going to try adding in auction value to our voting today. That will include both expected auction value and your auction value. If you don’t like auctions and don’t want to vote on those numbers, it’s fine, and I have not made it a required question. Let me know if you like it.

I’m surprised we haven’t done Jose Bautista yet over the course of this series. So surprised, in fact, that I had to search through multiple archives of mine to make sure I didn’t miss something. Bautista may have been the greatest waiver-wire pickup in history last year, as there is absolutely no reason anyone should have been drafting him. Sure, there have been great pickups in the past, but has anyone gone from waiver fodder to 54 home runs? I doubt it.

Aside from the massive home run total, Bautista set career marks in batting average, stolen bases, and every other fantasy category known to man. Making it all just a little more impressive, he did it with a .233 BABIP and 15% infield fly ball rate. Apart from the counting stats, Bautista also improved his walk and strikeout rates, posting by far the best BB/K he’s ever had.

Bautista was 29-years old during last season, and combining his age with a change in his swing meant extreme improvements. Now Bautista is 30-years old, and pitchers will likely have figured out some kind of hole in Bautista’s approach, or at least have decided to pitch around him. No one should be expecting Bautista to hit 50-plus homers again, but how many will he mash? If I knew the answer, I probably wouldn’t be here right now.

We are voting on where you think Bautista will be drafted by the average owner, as well as voting on where you would draft him. We are also trying out auction values today, both expected value and how much you would pay for Bautista. Please note we are pick number, not round this time because of Bautista’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of July.

10. Andres Torres .317-7-20-23-5

An injury to Mark DeRosa opened playing time for Torres earlier this year and he has seemingly claimed a permanent spot in the Giants’ outfield. Torres has dwarfed preseason expectations, as he outhomered his ZiPS projection in July alone. His overall numbers this past month are very similar to Aramis Ramirez but a 5-0 edge in SB gives Torres the nod.

9. Mark Teixeira .344-8-26-25-0

Remember when Teixeira looked washed up in April? Since May 1st, he has been the Teixeira of old, being a force in four fantasy categories. This is the second time in three months Teixeira made this list, as he was also mentioned in the May edition.

8. Joey Votto .362-9-17-24-1

Four players hit 9 HR in July and Votto had the fewest RBIs. The other three averaged 22.3 RBIs.

7. Josh Hamilton .418-5-17-17-1

It is not a big surprise to see Hamilton on this list but doing it with below average HR and RBI totals and the third-best AVG in the month is a bit unusual. The top fantasy hitter in June, Hamilton had the power numbers that month that he lacks here in July. But no one is complaining about this line.

6. Miguel Cabrera .398-6-23-17-0

He leads the American League in RBIs and is second in both AVG and HR. Updated ZiPS projects him to finish the year the same way, with a comfortable 13-RBI lead over Alex Rodriguez but finishing second to Josh Hamilton in AVG and second to Jose Bautista in HR.

5. Aubrey Huff .367-8-23-25-2

The Giants went 20-8 in the month of July and with two of their hitters being the top fantasy hitters in the month it is not a big surprise. The .367 AVG that Huff produced was the third highest for him in any month in his career. He batted .402 in July of 2008 and .385 in August of 2004.

4. Jose Bautista .347-11-29-20-1

Bautista is having such an amazing year that it is hard to remember how awful he was in April when he hit just .214 for the month. Actually, Bautista has been hot every other month, with big production in May and July and Mendoza-like production in April and June.

3. Buster Posey .417-7-24-20-0

If there were position adjustments, Posey would be an easy top pick for best hitter. Hopefully you did not trade him in Week #13.

2. Carlos Gonzalez .382-9-22-20-4

The Venezuelan native has been involved in two high-profile deals in his career, going from Arizona to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal and then Oakland to Colorado in the Matt Holliday deal. I think it’s safe to say he will be in Colorado for the foreseeable future.

1. Delmon Young .434-6-30-17-1

What kind of odds could you have gotten in Vegas before the season that Young would be the top fantasy hitter in a month? Generally considered a bust since arriving in the majors, the top overall pick in the 2003 Draft is justifying the hype. He led all major leaguers in AVG and was second in RBIs in July.

Honorable Mention – Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, Angel Pagan, Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks.