Crowdsourcing Results: Mauer and Bautista
Joe Mauer (Expected, You)
My Pick: 25, 23
Average Pick: 19.2, 27.4
Median Pick: 20, 25
Pick Deviation: 9.9, 16.4
Interesting. Even after a year in which he was selected around twelfth and failed miserably to meet expectations, you all expect owners to take him less than ten picks later. I think he’ll go a little later at the 2-3 turn, and I’d be okay taking him there. For the most part, we’re arguing over nothing here, so let’s move on to Bautista.
Jose Bautista (Expected, You)
My Pick: 25, 92
Average Pick: 34.1, 41.9
Median Pick: 35, 40
Pick Deviation: 19.6, 24.5
– – –
My Dollar: 30, 15
Average Dollar: 24.5, 20.7
Median Dollar: 25, 20
Dollar Deviation: 7.9, 7.8
Okay, let’s start with the draft picks. As you can see, I’m not willing to take the chance on Bautista this year, and that’s not because I think he’ll be a total bust. I still think he’ll end up hitting at least 35 homers, but a low batting average combined with the strength of this year’s third base class (more on that sometime soon, and by soon I mean sometime before Spring Training) is not a recipe for an extremely valuable player. You are expecting Bautista to go later than I am, but are willing to pull the trigger on Bautista in the middle of the fourth round. Unless you expect him to hit another 50 home runs, this pick is probably going to be an overdraft.
Now onto the dollar amounts. I’m very happy that these dollar amounts correlate with the ADP numbers. A mid fourth-round pick is worth a little more than $20, so the relationship works out beautifully. Kudos to you for your knowledge and presence of mind. It’s strange that a player who hit over 50 homers last season would cost about $25 the following year, but that’s what has happened in the current age of speculation and doubt (you can speculate about what one might speculate about). I don’t think I’d mind spending $20 on Bautista if he wasn’t one of the first people nominated, but he won’t be. In auctions, I’d throw Bautista up there early and watch owners burn their money.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
I will probably never own Mauer – like many Yankees you can never get him at a good price, plus year to year he’s all over the place.
If Bautista falls to me in the 4th I’m celebrating. Something clearly clicked for this guy and I love the look in his eye. He figured out the patience and power game at the plate and the position eligibility is a big plus too. I know 3B has some depth but after the 4th round, how many 35-40 HR bats are there left? I’ll take Bautista in the 4th when the rest of you are taking your “ace”. Then I find my own ace in the 10th-12th.
I guess I just don’t see enough separation between Bautista and Reynolds for one to be a 4th rounder and one a 10th rounder. There’s several 3Bs drafted after Bautista that I’d rather own and if I’m going for power at 3B I’d rather wait for Reynolds or take two of Ian Stewart, Aramis Ramirez, Pedro Alvarez and hope one performs.
Bautista may have “figured it out” but if that’s right a 4th round pick to play Adam Dunn at 3B isn’t a ton of upside, while his downside being drafted there is pretty huge.
I have to agree
Third Base is a strong position this year if you believe in the upside of Pedro Alvarez and Mark Reynolds this year as I do.
Based on their current draft positions I would much rather have Reynolds or Alvarez several rounds after Bautista than reach for him expecting a repeat season
-w
“Unless you expect him to hit another 50 home runs, this pick is probably going to be an overdraft.”
What if you expect him to hit around 40 home runs? In that case, he’s definitely worth at least a 4th round pick (maybe even a 3rd). I think Bautista (somewhat like Beltre) will actually be underrated in some leagues because many managers don’t like drafting guys coming off career seasons (or in Beltre’s case, a monster contract year).
Brilliant blog and rather informative.
In OBP leagues, the avg is mitigated to some degree. He is, essentially, Adam Dunn at 3B however. Although he could be this year’s Mark Reynolds, the plate discipline, the seemingly modified swing/plate approach, and babip regression lead me to believe the production is closer to legit than fluke. And a 4th round pick on that type of potential is fine by me.
Funny … OBP league I took all three of them. Dunn at 33, Bautista at 53, and M.Reynolds at 68!
I am curious to see what you have to say about 3B this year since you imply it might be deeper than we think. Personally I think 3B is the most shallow position this year aside from SS.
wow really?? You must be the only one!!
I don’t know how you define “shallow” but you’ve got Longoria and David Wright as top tier studs, A-Rod, Bautista, Zimmerman, Beltre and Youkilis as solid second-tier choices just a click behind the top guys, bounce-back options like Aramis and the Panda, solid vets like Michael Young or even Mark Reynolds, and some youth like Pedro Alvarez who could be a 30HR bat this year.
3B is definitely not the second most shallow position. I would place 2B and probably Catcher as more shallow positions. Catcher is showing some players with decent power potential, but their production is much more difficult to predict. After the top 5 or 6 catchers, you’re taking somebody with a question mark. At 2B, you’ve got some decent guys like Brian Roberts and Chone Figgins hanging around late, but after that it’s very thin. With 3B, you’ve got Aramis Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Michael Young, Alvarez, Prado and Figgins (moving back to 3B this year) all going around or after round 10. And the dropoff from their is not as severe with guys like Peralta, Tejada, Rolen, and Chipper Jones. Remember how hot Rolen was in teh first half last year? There are plenty of guys who could have big years at 3B who will be drafted late if they’re drafted at all.