Archive for Jordan Zimmermann

Note: Scott Strandberg also wrote about Jordan Zimmermann yesterday and you should read that piece too.

Conversations about Jordan Zimmermann rarely present the Detroit Tigers starter in a good light. Maybe his horrid contract is referenced or how his fastball registered a -27.3 pVal in 2017 (yes, it was that bad) or maybe how far he’s fallen since his days with Nationals. Regardless of the focus, if you’re talking Zimermmann, it’s often sprinkled with disappointment.

We’re going to have a different conversation today. No, it’s not that Zimmermann is definitively a dependable arm for the rest of the year, that would be foolish. You know the drill with these articles, I have seen something interesting and I want to make the case that maybe, just maybe, a pitcher will be better than expected in the next month or two.

Let’s establish our baseline. Here’s what Jordan Zimmermann has done over his last two seasons leading up to 2018:

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I’m a dweller in general. In slow drafts, I am the ultimate dweller. In the past, I would have ten+ tabs open at a given time when my draft slots were approaching: FanGraphs player profiles; RotoGraphs consensus rankings; Brooks Baseball Player Cards; BP’s PITCHf/x leaderboard; Rotoworld player news; the list goes on.

Then, prior to draft season, Jeff, Eno and I worked on these Arsenal Scores so that you can compare pitcher repertoires. You now have a go-to pitcher matrix if you’re dwelling on a cluster of pitchers.

Last week, Jeff Zimmerman furnished this glorious Hitter Analytics post, which provided us with a go-to hitter matrix when we’re dwelling on a cluster of hitters.

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Jeff Sullivan pointed out that Stroman discovered Roy Halladay’s Sinker and presented his arsenal change (Fourseam and Cutter swapped for more Sinkers):

Stroman upped his Sinker usage and was comfortable using the pitch despite the count situation. From Sullivan’s post on 2/13:

Stroman was comfortable using the sinker when behind in the count against all hitters. Same when he was ahead in the count. Same when he was even. Same on the first pitch. Same with two strikes. He’s got other pitches, a lot of other pitches, and he still has his four-seamer, too, when he wants to elevate some heat, but the sinker has given Stroman something he didn’t have: a groundball pitch he can locate and use to get quick outs.

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I’ve stolen from the movie before. I’ll do so again…

Guarantee? If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your fantasy teams’ sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about listening to quality content from me.

If you don’t know where this reference is from, then well…just ring your call button, and Tommy will come back there and hit you over the head with a tack hammer.

I actually will play guarantee fairy here, specifically for deep leagues since there are no uber-exciting names that jump out in my below grid. So here goes…

So long as they pitch to a qualifying level of innings without getting hurt or losing velocity (not ballsy enough to leave out these contingencies), I GUARANTEE these starters won’t be any worse next year (although in the grid below I highlighted in different strengths of green/red both starters and relievers):

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There was a two or three week stretch in the offseason where the Rotographs crew split up as many starting pitchers as we could cover and gave them some individual attention. Today I want to revisit one of the guys I covered, Jordan Zimmermann.

In my offseason post on Zimm, I noted how consistent his numbers had been from 2011-2013 aside from his win total. His ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate had essentially been stagnant, but a spike in win total last year to 19 helped him have the best fantasy year of his career. The problem was that he’d be hard pressed to repeat that win total, and, sure enough, he only has six wins at the break.

The 19 wins pushed him into to the top ten starting pitchers according to ESPN’s player rater last year, but he had been more of a top 25 guy prior to that point. To be a top ten guy again, or really even to crack the top 20 again, Zimm was going to have to find a way to offset a lower win total. My theory was that he needed to throw his changeup more. As I detailed in the original post, Zimm has the high fastball velocity and changeup movement to make his changeup one of the rare changes that can generate grounders and whiffs at a good rate. If he’d throw it more than 5% of the time, maybe he could increase his strikeout production while maintaining his excellent rate stats. So has he? Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Zimmermann has become an extremely reliable starter. In the last three years his ERA has been between 2.94 and 3.25, his WHIP has been between 1.09 and 1.17, and his strikeout rate has been between 18.6% and 19%. Those rate stats along with 12 wins in 2012 resulted in an ADP of 20-25 among starters for Zimmermann prior to the 2013 season. Despite posting similar rate stats, Zimmermann outperformed his 2013 ADP and finished as the 11th most valuable starter according to our valuations thanks to a jump up to 19 wins.

Zimmermann helped himself in the win category by pitching a little deeper into games. He made the same amount of starts in 2012 and 2013, but he threw 17.2 more innings in 2013. That works out to Zimm leaving the game with an average of 1.65 more outs per game. He also got a bit more help with run support as his run support per innings pitched was five runs compared to 4.7 in 2012. So he was leaving later in games and probably leaving with a lead more often. But those improvements aren’t huge and weren’t worth seven extra wins. When you also consider that we’ve only had 42 19+ win seasons in the last decade and that only six pitchers have had back to back 19+ win seasons in that time frame, it’s highly probable that Zimm’s win total will decline in 2014.

Because of the increased win total, Zimmermann is likely to be drafted as more of a top 15 starter as opposed to a top 25 starter like he was last year. But if his win total does indeed decrease, he’s going to have improve in other areas in order to produce a similar value next year and to be worthy of his draft day price. And given the consistency in the rate stats that was detailed above, an improvement in any of those areas may seem unlikely. But I think Zimmermann may have a proverbial ace up his sleeve. Read the rest of this entry »

This weekend I had the opportunity to attend Saber Seminar in Boston. It was a wonderful event full of presentations by some amazing people like members of the Red Sox front office staff, Harry Pavilidis and Dan Brooks, Keith Law, and Fangraphs’ own Dave Cameron and Bill Petti among others. I began writing this within 30 minutes of getting back from the airport last night.

For the purposes of daily fantasy strategy, the most interesting presentation of the weekend was that of SABR president, Vince Gennaro. Vince was lamenting the usage of batter-versus-pitcher (BVP) data by both managers and TV broadcasts. Likewise, I hate it when I see daily contest players rely on that data. Vince noted the small sample size issue with BVP data, but presumably he has also read the portion of The Book that proved BVP data is not predictive.

Vince wants to find a better way to play match ups. I assume he’s coming at it from the angle of finding a better way for managers to play match ups and to make both lineup and in game decisions. But his work is equally applicable to daily fantasy strategy. Vince looks at the following five categories in an attempt to determine the best match ups: Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday Blake Murphy recapped the impact of some of the bigger names that moved at the trade deadline. Today I want to touch on the potential impact that a few of the smaller names could have in new places.

Jose Iglesias moves to Detroit – Of the 90 qualified starters in the league, the Tigers have four starters that rank top 20 in BABIP. Anytime a team has four starters with a BABIP of .308 or higher, the defense is obviously a problem. And Detroit is no exception this year as they rank 27th in defensive efficiency. They turn only 69.6% of balls put in play into outs. For comparison’s sake, the Pirates lead the league in defensive efficiency with a rate of 73.3%. Detroit’s struggles aren’t entirely Jhonny Peralta’s fault, but he’s not helping. He has a UZR/150 that is slightly below average for his career (-0.7), but Iglesias’ career UZR/150 is 22.2. If Peralta is in fact suspended, Iglesias should help those Tiger starters lower their BABIPs. Read the rest of this entry »

If there is a flaw in the pricing of hitters on daily fantasy sites, it’s that recent performance seems to be weighted too heavily. Just as an example, Jason Heyward was among the cheaper options for awhile after his slow start, but all the underlying numbers portended that he would rebound. And he has. He’s hitting .296 with four home runs over the last 30 days. If you rode Heyward until his price crept back up, you got some nice value for awhile.

If you can identify other guys with bad traditional numbers but good underlying numbers in the most recent sample, you can find some value plays to ride almost daily until the price catches back up. I like to start by looking back at K% over the last month or so. I’m looking for guys who are showing better plate discipline than they have in recent years but whose production and fantasy value is being depressed by some other factor. Below is a list of the hitters with the biggest improvements in K% over the last 30 days (min. 60 PA) compared to their K% since the beginning of 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Colby Lewis – Home runs are killing Lewis this year, as he has allowed the third most HR (20) in all of baseball. He was pounded in back-to-back starts where he allowed 4 HR and 15 ER in 4.2 IP in early June. But in his last three starts, Lewis has allowed “only” 3 HR in 20.1 IP and picked up two wins. This week Lewis gets the A’s and O’s. Oakland ranks last in the AL with 43 HR in 83 games. Baltimore has more power, but 50 of its 83 HR have come at home this season. Look for Lewis to maintain his recent strong pitching and give him a starting nod this week.

Shaun Marcum – A hip flexor has slowed Marcum recently after the veteran got off to a 7-2 start in his first season with the Brewers. In his last three outings, Marcum has allowed 8 ER in 9 IP, two of which came on the road. This week Marcum is scheduled for two home starts. And while he has a 4-1 home record this season, Marcum has a 4.13 ERA at Miller Park, nearly two runs higher than his road mark. Given his recent struggles, give Marcum a week off to get healthier.

Wandy Rodriguez – The elbow injury that sidelined Rodriguez for three weeks has not been a lingering problem. He was just finding his stride before being put on the DL and in his four starts since being activated, Rodriguez is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA with 20 Ks in 25 IP. While he does have two road starts this week, Rodriguez is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. He has struggled some with the gopher ball this year, but he takes on PIT and FLA this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Rodriguez should be in your lineup this week.

Tim Stauffer – It would be hard to find a pitcher whose ERA more closely matches his peripherals than Stauffer. His 2.97 ERA is nearly identical to his 3.01 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. Stauffer has been on a role lately, with a 3-1 record and a 1.00 ERA in his past five starts. However, four of those games came at home and the other was in MIN. This week he has to go on the road to face SF and LAD. Stauffer has pitched well away from Petco (3.25 ERA) and neither the Giants (46 runs in last 14 games) nor Dodgers (53 runs in last 15) have been lighting up the scoreboard recently. Look for Stauffer to continue his strong pitching and keep him active.

Jordan Zimmermann – In his last 11 starts, Zimmermann has 11 Quality Starts. And not one of those barely meets the requirements at 6 IP and 3 ER. In fact, he’s only allowed 3 ER once in the 11 games. He has an outstanding 1.85 ERA in this stretch. Yet he’s only 4-3. Zimmermann is not striking out batters at his previous rate but he holds a BB/9 of just 1.75 and has been stingy with the long ball (3.1 HR/FB) this year. The HR rate makes his xFIP (3.67) a full run higher than his overall ERA (2.63) but is still a solid mark. With two home starts this week, keep plugging Zimmermann into your lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, F. Hernandez, Shields, Cain, Lester, Haren, Price, Scherzer, Hudson, Cueto, J. Garcia, Jimenez, Carpenter, Baker, Morrow, Hanson, Burnett, Peavy, Dempster, Nolasco, Zambrano, Carrasco, Tomlin, Harrison, Lowe, Buehrle, Wolf, Lilly, Volquez, Myers, Lackey, Capuano, Duensing, Worley, Pelfrey, Maholm, Pineiro, Richards, R. de la Rosa, Francis, Furbush, Cecil, Volstad, Moscoso, Cook, Jakubauskas, McCarthy, Duke

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Gee – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 6.30 ERA, 1.900 WHIP, 10 IP, 7 ER
Holland – Advised to sit. W, 4 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.575 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Narveson – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Pavano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Zambrano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER