Archive for Jordan Zimmermann

If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!

Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).

PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.

The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.

Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.

Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).

Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.

Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.

That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.

The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.

Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals (Owned in 5% of Yahoo leagues)

Nationals fans giddily awaited a Stephen Strasburg/Zimmermann combo, giving the moribund franchise a pair of premium power pitchers at the top of the rotation. But alas, as Zimmermann’s Tommy John scars gave way to scoreless starts in the minors, Strasburg’s elbow gave out.

While the news of Strasburg’s injury is bitterly disappointing, Zimmermann is talented in his own right. Washington’s second-round pick in the ’07 draft was extremely impressive during his big league debut last season, with 9.07 K/9, 2.86 BB/9 and a 3.39 xFIP in 91.1 innings pitched. With a fastball averaging a hair over 93 MPH, a mid-80’s slider, a high-70’s curve and a mid-80’s change, Zimmermann leaped ahead in the count (65.2 first pitch strike%, 58% MLB average) and got a good number of swinging strikes (9%, 8.6% MLB average).

On the rehab trail, Zimmermann had a 31/6 K/BB ratio in 39.2 IP spread across four levels. And while two big league starts doesn’t tell us much, he has a 13/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings pitched. Zimmermann has averaged a little more than 92 MPH with his heater. He’s no Strasburg, but he’s well worth snagging in fantasy leagues.

Neil Walker, Pirates (32%)

Since the Pirates made him the 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Walker’s status within the organization has waxed and waned. The switch-hitter from nearby Pine Richland High School has gone from highly-touted catching prospect, to third baseman of the future to an afterthought utility man. But now, in the midst of an excellent 2010 season, Walker’s looking like the Pirates’ long-term answer at second base.

Recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis after raking to the tune of .321/.392/.560 in 189 plate appearances, Walker has posted +11.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in three-plus months in the majors. Turning 25 this coming Friday, Walker is batting .310/.354/.486 in 346 PA, good for a .362 wOBA. Adjusting for park and league factors, Walker’s wOBA is 27 percent above average (127 wRC+). Even better for fantasy owners, Walker still qualifies at the hot corner as well.

Granted, Walker hasn’t drawn many walks (5.8 BB%), and his batting average on balls in play is very high at .367. But ZiPS still projects him as an above-average hitter moving forward, with a .280/.321/.453 triple-slash and a .332 wOBA.

The biggest question he’ll have to answer is, can he cut it at second base? We just don’t know the answer yet. Six-hundred-some innings isn’t near enough of a sample to make an informed judgment, however bad his UZR marks might be. Sean Smith’s Total Zone rated Walker as somewhat below-average at third base in the minors, and figures he’ll cost his club more than a half-win with the glove at second. Expect Pittsburgh to give Walker every chance to make the transition, though.

The options on the wire are dwindling as temperatures hit their peaks. Here’s a pair of pitchers with low ownership rates could help the right team in the right place, though.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (2% owned)
It looked for a second like Esmil Rogers was the one that would replace Aaron Cook, but that is no longer the case. The team just wanted Chacin to build back up the innings, as he had been in the bully for a little while. Chacin just went seven in the minor leagues and will take the next turn in the major league rotation. And, of course, he’s a really good pitcher that is borderline mixed league material. He’s already good – a 3.77 FIP in less than a hundred major league innings, with a nice strikeout rate (9.73 per nine this year) – but he can even be better. His minor league groundball percentage is 60.1%, and was 66.3% in Triple-A this year – so his major league number (44.7%) could easily improve. He also only walked 2.7 per nine in the minor leagues, but that number also creeped up as he advanced, so perhaps his current number (4.15) represents his actual talent level. No matter. If he strikes out a batter per inning and gets half of his balls on the ground, he’ll be a good pitcher. The key is the strikeouts. After only striking out 7.5 per nine over his minor league career, he’s been doing well in the majors. An 11.3% swinging strike percentage is both above average and a good harbinger of future strikeouts, though, so we’re betting on this young Rockies pitcher.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington DC (2% owned)
Everyone’s been waiting on the other Nationals pitcher to join the big league team, but they are really babying their second ace. Wednesday marked the anniversary of his surgery, but he’s still pitching four innings at a time on his rehab stint. Compare him to Edinson Volquez, who had the surgery 374 days ago and has already made five starts this year. That’s what being competitive will do to you, perhaps. In any case, Zimmermann’s rehab has gone well. Usually it’s the control that comes back last, but he’s put up a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 29.2 innings while rehabbing, which has to bode well. The strikeout rate and walk rate haven’t been quite as stellar at the higher levels of his rehab, but it’s time to see what he can do in the major leagues – or so says a fantasy manager. If he does come up soon, and can put up anything like his strikeout (9.07) and walk (2.86) rates of last year (his minor league numbers seem to suggest he can), he’ll be a good pickup in any league.

Ownership rates provided by Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

Stock Up

Tommy Hanson, Braves

A product of the now-defunct draft-and-follow process (he was a 22nd-round pick in the 2005 draft), Hanson garnered plenty of headlines during his ascent to Atlanta. The 6-6 righty laid waste to AAA to start the 2009 season (66.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 2.31 BB/9), and he has made a very strong first impression as the Braves look to stay in the playoff race.

Hanson has punched out 6.72 per nine frames in the majors, with 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.14 FIP in 73.2 IP. The soon-to-be 23 year-old has all the pitches: a 93 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 75 MPH curve and an 83 MPH change of pace. Hanson is getting ahead of hitters pretty well (his 63.4 First-Pitch Strike% is over 4 percentage points above the MLB average), and his breaking pitches in particular look nasty.

Tommy’s slider has 3.7 inches of horizontal movement away from righties (the MLB avg. is 2.4), while his curve breaks downward slightly more than the average breaker (5.8 inches, 5.3 average), with 1.1 inches more horizontal break (6.4) than the average yellow hammer (5.3). Here’s Hanson’s movement chart from his August 11th start versus Washington:

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies

The 23 year-old Venezuelan (formerly of Arizona and Oakland) seems to have garnered the “busted prospect” label, based largely upon his anemic work with the A’s in 2008 (.278 wOBA in 316 PA, with an untenable 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%). It’s never wise to write off such a young player, however; it’s not as though his skill set will just automatically remain stagnant.

Shipped to Colorado in the off-season, Gonzalez pasted the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA in ’09. AAA Colorado Springs is certainly a favorable offensive environment (inflating offensive production by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008), but CarGo did a better job of working the count with a 10.3% walk rate, whiffing 16.7% of the time.

Gonzalez is getting fairly regular playing time for the Rockies right now, and he has a .285/.341/.517 triple-slash in 170 PA. Coors caveats apply, but Carlos still has +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs on the season. He hasn’t transformed into some model of plate discipline (31.8 Outside-Swing%, 25% MLB average), but Gonzalez has taken ball four 8.5% of the time. He has also chipped in 8 steals in 9 attempts.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

A Japanese star inked to a four-year, $48M deal prior to the 2008 season, Fukudome posted a .328 wOBA in his “rookie” season that was considered a big disappointment. It’s not like he was a bad player, though, walking nearly 14% of the time while playing plus defense in an outfield corner. A brutal second half (.217/.314/.326) fueled the perception that Fukudome was nothing more than a fourth outfielder, but there really wasn’t all that much changed in Kosuke’s core skills when compared to his scorching first half (.279/.383/.408). Some decline? Yes, but nothing that explains a near-90 percentage point dip in BABIP:

Fukudomania! (1st half): 14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, .129 ISO, .335 BABIP
BOOO! (2nd half): 12.8 BB%, 16.7 K%, .109 ISO, .248 BABIP

In 2009, Fukudome has boosted his lumber production with a .369 wOBA. He’s drawing a walk 16% of the time, with a .191 ISO to boot. Kosuke has compiled 3 Wins Above Replacement already. He basically looks like the scouting reports suggested: great eye, doubles power with the occasional dinger, with a enough range to play a passable center field.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

When the Rangers acquired a bounty of young talent from the Braves in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira blockbuster, Feliz was a hard-throwing string bean with less than 75 professional innings under his belt. Two years later, Feliz is just plain overmatching major league batters out of the ‘pen.

His repertoire in short stints has been sick: a 98 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH power curve and an 89 MPH changeup. A lot of guys throw hard, but few possess Feliz’s combination of velocity and movement: his fastball tails in on the hands of righty batters 7.4 inches (6 inch MLB avg), with 11.2 inches of horizontal break (8.6 avg.) He essentially throws his heater with 4-seam velocity and vertical movement, with the running action of a two-seamer.

In 8.2 IP, Neftali has whiffed 16 batters, without allowing a walk. His long-term future lies in the rotation, but he could conjure up memories of K-Rod’s 2002 dominance in the meantime.

Jonny Gomes, Reds

The former Rays slugger is anathema to all things leather (career -19.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), but the born DH has slammed NL pitching for 15 home runs and a .277/.357/.584 line in 196 plate appearances for the Reds. Gomes likely won’t continue to homer at a Pujols-like pace, but even a performance in line with his career .240/.332/.470 triple-slash would be of use to fantasy owners. He can slug with the best of them, and he’s in a ballpark that certainly digs the long ball.

Stock Down

David Wright, Mets

Mets fans must be balled up in the fetal position by this point, no? The club entered the season with a strong shot of competing in the NL East on the basis of the Santana/Reyes/Wright/Beltran quartet of stars. Only Santana remains on the field now, as Wright took a 94 MPH Matt Cain fastball off the helmet in Saturday’s contest against the Giants.

The third baseman was having a productive, if atypical season at the plate in 2009. His .387 wOBA doesn’t look all the different, but Wright’s ISO dipped from around .220 from 2004-2008 to just .143 in 2009. He punched out a career-high 24.6% of the time, yet hit .324 on the basis of a ridiculous .415 BABIP.

The focus now, though, shifts to Wright’s long-term health. There’s a better chance of sudden peace in the Middle East than the Mets making the playoffs (Baseball Prospectus has New York’s odds at 0.15%; “so you’re telling me there’s a chance…Yeah!”) Wright didn’t “get his bell rung”, and he wasn’t “shook up”. He suffered a brain injury. There’s no incentive for the team to rush him back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto has gotten throttled since the calendar turned to July. The 23 year-old Dominican gave up a .587 opponent slugging percentage that month, has been battered to the tune of a .644 SLG% in August. He cramped up during his August 11th start vs. St. Louis after two innings, then got drubbed for 8 H and 7 R in just 2.2 IP against the Nationals on the 15th.

Johnny has made some progress in terms of limiting free passes (3.03 BB/9, compared to 3.52 in ’08), but the homer problems persist. Cueto’s HR/FB% isn’t out of whack (11.2%), but the flyball-slanted righty has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season after serving up 1.5 per nine in 2008. Reds skipper Dusty Baker has indicated that Cueto will have his next start skipped.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Not that long ago, I asked if Zimmermann might just be the best of 2009’s crop of rookie starters. Unfortunately, that argument is now moot. The 23 year-old righty will be out anywhere from 12-18 months following Tommy John surgery. It’s a highly disappointing development for Nationals fans, who had visions of a Strasburg/Zimmermann 1-2 duo leading the club out of the depths of the NL East standings.

Garrett Jones, Pirates

A 28 year-old minor league vet with a career .265/.321/.463 line in nearly 2,500 PA at the AAA level, Jones went all Shane Spencer on the NL in July (1.061 OPS, 10 HR). August has seen Mr. Jones hit a more reasonable .259/.333/.444, and even that is above what one would expect based on the big lefty batter’s minor league numbers. Per Minor League Splits, Jones’ work at AAA Indianapolis to begin to 2009 season translated to a .259/.291/.408 line at the highest level. His 2006-2008 translations are similarly bleak.

Performances at the extremes tend to skew the perception of a player. Jones’ incredible start likely had some running to the waiver wire to claim him, but his much larger body of work suggests that he’s more major league filler than some breakout performer.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

Milledge has a clean slate in Pittsburgh, getting another opportunity to make good on the promise that made him a top prospect in the Mets system and a sought-after trade target of the Nationals. Thus far, it’s not working out very well. The 24 year-old has expanded his zone in the majors, walking just 6.6% of the time and swinging at nearly 32% of pitches off the plate), and he is hitting just .213/.259/.250 in 86 PA in 2009. Lastings’ walk rate under five percent. He’ll continue to get regular AB’s with the Pirates as they seek to rehabilitate his deteriorated plate approach, but it would be nice to see some sort of progress here.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Jose Contreras – In his first five starts of the season, Contreras was 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA. Since then he is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA and has pitched into the eighth inning in four of his last five starts. Contreras has his highest SO rate (6.18) since 2005 and his walk rate (2.82) is under three for the fourth straight year. His FIP checks in 84 points lower than his ERA. And while his BABIP is a touch low (.285) his 60.4 percent strand rate has room for improvement. Owned in only 25 percent of CBS Sports leagues, Contreras could be a good add for two starts this week.

Jon Garland – A free agent pickup by the Diamondbacks in the off-season, Garland has had a Jekyl-Hyde type season. In road games, Garland has a 2.47 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. In home games, Garland checks in with a 7.51 ERA and 1.827 WHIP. He has eight starts each home and away. With two home games this week, sit Garland if you can.

Mike Pelfrey – He was very tough in May, with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. However, June was less kind as he posted a 6.39 ERA in five starts. His last start came Wednesday, the first day in July, and Pelfrey pitched 7.2 innings of scoreless ball along with six strikeouts. Historically, Pelfrey has done his best work in July and August, the only two months in his career where his ERA is below four. He gets two starts at Citi Field this week, where his ERA this year is ¾ of a run lower than his road mark.

Ricky Romero – While the pre-season hype surrounding a rookie Blue Jays pitcher was reserved for Brett Cecil, it has been Romero who has been the biggest contributor. Romero has an impressive 2.54 SO/BB ratio and a very nice 1.24 WHIP. The LHP from California has six straight Quality Starts and is working on a streak of 20 consecutive scoreless innings. Owned in just 22.4 percent of ESPN leagues, check your waiver wire and see if he is available to pick up and insert into your lineup.

Jordan Zimmermann – Our own David Golebiewski has a nice write-up of Zimmermann, one of my favorite rookie pitchers this season. However, you may want to sit him this week if possible. Zimmermann has two road starts in Week 14, and away from Nationals Park he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.470 WHIP. And not only are they road starts, but Zimmermann will take the mound in Colorado versus the second-highest scoring team in the National League and in Houston, where Minute Maid Park is one of the top HR parks in the majors this season.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Beckett, Vazquez, Gallardo, J.Johnson, Cain, Hamels, Wainwright, Weaver, Garza, Cueto, Millwood, Kershaw, Jurrjens, Harang, Baker, Pettitte, Happ, Smoltz, Kuroda, Meche, Marquis, Wells, Correia, Washburn, Bergesen, Zito, Hammel, Galarraga, West, Hampton, Vargas, W. Silva, G. Gonzalez, V. Vasquez, Sowers, Holland, Stammen, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 12 and how they did.

Cahill – Advised to start. W, 6 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (2 starts)
Cook – Advised to start. 2 W, 8 K 1.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Liriano – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 k, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Richmond – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 2.57 ERA, 0.57 WHIP (1)
Wang – Advised to start. W, 7 K, 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (2)

While no rookie starting pitcher has exploded onto the scene a-la-Dontrelle Willis in 2003, MLB fans have been treated to a steady stream of premium young arms getting their first extended looks in the majors. The Cahill’s, Anderson’s, Porcello’s, Price’s and Hanson’s have all gotten plenty of attention. However, another extremely gifted youngster has largely gone under the radar in our nation’s capital. The Washington Nationals may be plagued by a laundry list of issues, but Jordan Zimmermann ’s starts are turning into must-see TV (well, MLB.TV) for this fan.

Since making his debut April 20th, the Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point product has posted a 3.55 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Zimmermann has punched out an excellent 8.91 batters per nine innings, while limiting the free passes with 2.55 BB/9. Among starters tossing at least 60 innings, the 23 year-old righty has the 23rd-best FIP. His 3.45 K/BB ratio ranks 18th, just ahead of Florida’s Josh Johnson. Yet, Zimmermann’s ERA sits at 4.65. What’s the deal?

Unfortunately, the 6-2, 200 pounder is backed by the worst defensive squad in baseball. The Nationals rank last in team Ultimate Zone Rating and 29th in Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs). While a strikeout pitcher like Zimmermann isn’t as harmed by lousy D (he doesn’t put the ball in play as often), his BABIP sits at .331.

In terms of the things Zimmermann has more direct control over, he has been superb. Opposing hitters have hacked at pitches outside of the strike zone 28.4% of the time (24.9 MLB average). Zimmermann is inducing contact on the first pitch or getting ahead of the batter 0-and-1 often. His First-Pitch Strike% sits at 66.3, well above the 58% MLB average. His rate of first-pitch strikes places 7th among starters tossing at least 60 frames.

Zimmermann also comes equipped with a power pitcher’s arsenal. He utilizes a 93 MPH fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curveball and a mid-80’s changeup. While the fastball (-0.53 runs/100 pitches) and curve (-0.43) have been ordinary, Zimmermann’s slider (+1.65) and changeup (+2.08) have been wicked.

You wouldn’t know it from a cursory look at his numbers, but Jordan Zimmermann has pitched like an ace during his rookie season. He’s striking out nearly a batter per inning, limiting the walks (his 53.4 Zone% is about 4 percent above the MLB average) and possesses stuff that compares favorably to any other rookie in the majors. Time will tell who becomes the most successful out of 2009’s batch of rookies, but Zimmermann is certainly deserving of a place in the conversation.

Here is the latest update to Week 13 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

TOR – Richmond
WAS – Zimmermann
TB – Niemann
OAK – Anderson
HOU – Hampton
WAS – Olsen
SD – Banks

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Garza
HOU – Moehler
OAK – Gonzalez
WAS – Stammen
SD – LeBlanc

Richmond has bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen his last six outings, with three appearances as each, alternating every other appearance as a starter and reliever. So while he’s listed right now for two starts it is not something you want to necessarily count on.

Zimmermann has a FIP over a full run lower than his ERA. He has been a very good strikeout pitcher, averaging 8.91 K/9 and his BB rate is very low, too, at 2.58 BB/9. He has a .331 BABIP and an unhealthy 24.5 percent line drive rate. When batters do make contact off him, 22 of their 71 hits go for extra bases.

Niemann is really getting hurt by walks. He has a .289 BABIP but a 1.47 WHIP, thanks to a 4.11 BB/9 ratio. On 6/3 he pitched a two-hit shutout with one walk but in his last outing he had four walks in four innings pitched. Lately he has kept the ball in the park. After allowing eight HR in his first nine games, Niemann has not allowed a homer in his last five games, a span covering 24.2 innings.

Anderson has poor overall numbers but it really could be even worse. He has a 1.70 HR/9 and a 59.7 percent strand rate. Batters have a .328 BABIP and a .307 average against him. After Anderson threw seven shutout innings on 6/4, he has an 0-2 record with an 8.59 ERA in his past three games.

Hampton is scheduled to come off the disabled list this week, as he is currently sidelined with a strained left groin. Currently he has a 1.59 K/BB ratio. If he maintains that pace for the rest of the season, it would be his best mark in the category since 1999.

Olsen has not pitched in the majors since May 16th because of shoulder tendinitis. His numbers were poor this year in eight starts in the majors. Four rehab starts in the minors were not any better.

Banks makes his first start in 2009 after making 14 for the Padres in 2008. Banks is not overpowering but the 6’3 righty throws about every pitch in the book. He is interesting simply for the fact that he gets two starts in Petco this week.

All 30 teams are in action this evening as interleague play wraps up. How about some links?

MVN’s MLBOutsider takes a closer look at the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 1.99 ERA and 22/6 K/BB ratio over his past four starts. He obviously doesn’t carry much win potential, but he’s been missing a lot of bats (8.9 K/9) without a great dip in control (2.6 BB/9). Mixed leaguers starving for strikeouts might as well give him a try. He is owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Alex Geshwind of FantasyBullpen.com lists his “second half starting pitching targets,” calling Francisco Liriano the “ultimate risk reward” and Randy Johnson a “decent buy low candidate.” Geshwind also takes note of Jorge De La Rosa’s 9.8 K/9 and 3.46 BABIP.

RotoRob’s “Daily Dump” is the Orioles’ Luke Scott, who is stuck in a 3-for-22 rut and has a .699 OPS in the month of June. He’s shown a good display of power this season (14 home runs in 184 at-bats) and has at times murdered left-handed pitching, but he’s not helping mixed leaguers.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse advises us to stay away from the “Homer Train.” He, of course, is referring to the Reds’ Homer Bailey, who will be called on to start Saturday against the Indians. The 23-year-old is 4-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 38/7 K/BB ratio in his last five starts for Triple-A Louisville, but he’s had trouble parlaying any kind of success into the major leagues during the course of his career. There’s some hope that this time will be different, due in large part to a new split-finger fastball.

Brad Berreman of MVN’s MLBOutsider has a look at the Marlins’ bullpen situation. With Matt Lindstrom hitting the disabled list, the Fish have said they intend to use a closer-by-committee strategy. That doesn’t always last. Perhaps Leo Nunez or Dan Meyer will emerge as the club’s official ninth-inning hurler.

Rotoworld’s Mark St. Amant presents his “Risers” and “Fallers.” He even gives a little credit to David Ortiz, who is putting together a nice June after opening the season in a massive slump.

Have a link, question or comment? I’m all ears. Shoot me an e-mail or come join me on Twitter.

This weekend’s Interleague Series featuring Toronto and Washington may not be a huge draw south of the border, but there are three interesting things to keep an eye on. Firstly, the Nationals were, of course, originally Canada’s first Major League Baseball team – the Montreal Expos. Secondly, it will be the first time that the two clubs have met up since Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi made some disparaging remarks in the media about (then Cincinnati Reds slugger) Adam Dunn, who now plays in Washington. Do you think Dunn will be locked in?

Thirdly, and most interestingly (as far as I am concerned), this series will feature appearances from five (out of the possible six) rookie starters. Toronto will send veteran Brian Tallet to the mound on Friday, but then he will be followed by rookies Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero. Interestingly, all three pitchers are left-handers. Washington will counter with three rookies this weekend: Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler (also a southpaw), and Shairon Martis. The Washington line-up is right-handed heavy (with the exception of Dunn and Nick Johnson) so the on-paper match-up goes to the Nationals.

Brett Cecil, 22, pitched fairly well in his first three Major League games this season. It was his fourth start that doomed him and sent him back to the minors. On May 20 in Boston, Cecil allowed 11 hits in 4.2 innings of work, along with two walks and five home runs. Overall, he has allowed 28 hits in 24.2 innings of work, while allowing seven homers and posting rates of 2.19 BB/9 and 6.57 K/9. His ERA is 4.38 but his FIP is 6.39. Cecil also has a ground-ball rate of 52%.

Ricky Romero has been a savior to the Jays’ rotation in 2009, despite missing time with an oblique strain (but what Jays pitcher hasn’t been injured this season). The 24-year-old former No. 1 draft pick has a 3.73 ERA (4.77 FIP) and has allowed 52 hits in 50.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 2.84 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.28 K/9. Romero has a ground-ball rate of 50%.

Jordan Zimmermann, 23, has been inconsistent this season, but his talent is obvious. In 57 innings, he has allowed 61 hits, while posting rates of 2.53 BB/9 and 9.47 K/9. His ERA is 5.37 but his FIP is just 3.79. He has a ground-ball rate of just 44.2%, which has been hurt by a line-drive rate of 25.0%.

Ross Detwiler, 23, has a 5.23 ERA, but once again a Nationals pitcher has a much lower FIP at 3.83. He has allowed 36 hits in 32.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 3.86 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.34 BB/9. Detwiler has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just two homers allowed (0.55 HR/9).

Shairon Martis, 22, has pitched more than any other rookie pitcher in this series at 75 and he’s allowed just 69 hits. His rates, though, are not that good with a walk rate of 4.04 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 3.45 K/9. His ERA is currently 4.75, with a FIP of 5.14. He’s allowed eight home runs (0.85 BB/9). With a ground-ball rate of just 41.3%, Martis is constantly flirting with disaster thanks to his modest fastball (an average of 90 mph) and his spotty control.

The youth movement in Major League Baseball is in all its glory this weekend in Washington. In fact, the Jays organization actually has more rookies in its Major League rotation right now, than it does in triple-A Las Vegas. So who do you think will win the battle of the rookies – in both this series and in the years to come?

Stock Up

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals

A Tale of Two Rookies: Shairon Martis might have the shiny 5-0 record and a superficially better ERA (4.86), but Zimmermann (5.71 ERA) holds the FIP advantage, 4.24 to Martis’ 4.71. Zimmermann has a strong 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.56 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), but a fluky .343 BABIP has bogged down his numbers. The 22 year-old has a deep four-pitch mix and keeps the ball in the zone (54.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate, compared to the 48.9% MLB average). He’s also getting ahead of hitters 0-1 or inducing contact early in the at-bat, with a First-Pitch Strike percentage of 66.5 (57.7% MLB average).

Kevin Slowey, Twins

As an extreme flyball pitcher (his career GB% is 33.2), Slowey will give up some meatballs that end up in the stands (1.3 HR/9 in 2009, 1.47 HR/9 career). However, his control and command are absolutely disgusting. Slowey’s walk rate for the season sits at 0.65, less than half of last year’s already pinpoint 1.35 BB/9. The 25 year-old is basically in a category of his own in terms of painting the corners: Joel Pinerio ranks 2nd in BB/9 at 1.03. Slowey has a 9.75 K/BB ratio; Roy Halladay is second at 7.0. Slowey also leads all starters in placing his pitches within the zone, at 59.2 percent. His FIP is down to 3.94 for the season, and batters have a better chance of winning the lottery and subsequently being struck by lightning than drawing a walk against him.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers

Per Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Andrus has been the sixth-most productive shortstop in the majors in 2009, quite the accomplishment for a 20 year-old who spent last season in Double-A. Andrus has been a vacuum at short at 14.8 UZR/150, but he has surprisingly held his own at the dish as well. His wOBA sits at .355, with a .291/.333/.457 line. Andrus’ .165 ISO is leaps and bounds above anything he did at the minor league level. ZiPS suggests that we shouldn’t go hog-wild just yet: Andrus is projected to hit .250/.303/.337 from here on out, with a .291 wOBA. Still, the Rangers have to be highly encouraged.

Rich Hill, Orioles

Baby steps: Coming off a disastrous 2008 campaign in which he walked the yard and lost all semblance of fastball control, Hill has 12 punchouts in 11.1 frames. He’s still fighting himself, however, with 6 free passes. The 29 year-old’s signature low-70’s curve has shown plenty of bite (with 8.2 inches of “dropping” action, the hook is falling nearly twice as much as the average lefty curve, and more than Hill’s 7.1 career average when Pitch F/X is watching).

Hill continues to throw his curve and fastball from two different arm slots, though I won’t pretend to know whether or not the batter could pick up on such a nuance. The difference doesn’t appear to be extreme:

See that one red dot? Hill has dropped down sidearm to throw a slider once in each of his first two starts.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

The D-Backs rank just 24th in the majors in wOBA, but don’t blame Reynolds. He holds a .398 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .284 ISO. He’s still coming up empty as often as any one (36.1 K%), but Reynolds is working the count well (12.4 BB%) while reducing his Outside Swing% for the third consecutive year (from 26.1% in 2007 to 20.6% this season).

Stock Down

Rich Harden, Cubs

The A’s received plenty of flak last summer for parting with Harden, whose transient brilliance can intoxicate GM’s and fantasy owners alike. The reason Oakland received only a middling package of prospects is the same reason why Harden will always be a second or third-tier fantasy starter: he’s never upright for more than a few months at a time. Whiffing nearly 11 batters per nine innings, Harden hits the DL with a back strain.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

Burnett’s five-year pact with the Bombers was considered a significant risk from a health standpoint, but he was expected to perform quite well when available. So far, that hasn’t been the case: fresh off a 3.45 FIP with the Blue Jays, Burnett has posted a 5.27 FIP in 58 innings. Some of that is poor luck on flyballs- his HR/FB% is somewhat high at 14.3 percent. Still, his strikeout rate is down (7.76 K/9 in 2009, 9.39 in 2008), he’s walking too many batters (4.19 BB/9), and he’s surrendering far more flyballs this season. His 41.7 GB% is significantly lower than his 48.5% mark in 2008, which in turn was quite a bit lower than his 54.8% figure in 2007. Considering that seemingly innocuous flyballs are whizzing out of new Yankee Stadium at a dizzying pace (1.62 HR park factor), that’s not a positive trend.

Emmanuel Burriss, Giants

Granted, this Kent State product was never expected to knock balls into the gap with regularity, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Burriss has three extra-base knocks on the season, good for a .021 ISO. His wOBA sits at .284. Coupled with a so-so 11-for-15 in the SB department and a false start with the leather (-7.6 UZR/150), Burriss has been below replacement-level thus far. There are rumblings that Burriss may begin losing playing time to Kevin Frandsen.

Chris Davis, Rangers

Punching out regularly certainly doesn’t preclude a hitter from being highly productive, but Davis has resembled a Dave Kingman/Rob Deer love child in 2009. He has whiffed an astounding 43.5% of the time, lapping the competition: Carlos Pena ranks a distant second, at 36.3%. The 23 year-old is crushing what he can touch, with 10 homers and a .231 ISO. However, he’s swinging at most everything (35.2 Outside Swing%) while making the least amount of contact of any batter in the majors, at 58 percent. The result is an ugly .264 OBP and a .300 wOBA.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano had a highly promising return to the Twinkies last year (3.87 FIP, 7.93 K/9), but the 25 year-old southpaw has been torched for a 5.28 FIP in 2009. Placing a below-average 45.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, Liriano has issued 4.44 BB/9. Not surprisingly, his release point has been all over the place. For example, here’s his last start against the White Sox, on May 20th: