Two Last Draft Tools

I’m a dweller in general. In slow drafts, I am the ultimate dweller. In the past, I would have ten+ tabs open at a given time when my draft slots were approaching: FanGraphs player profiles; RotoGraphs consensus rankings; Brooks Baseball Player Cards; BP’s PITCHf/x leaderboard; Rotoworld player news; the list goes on.

Then, prior to draft season, Jeff, Eno and I worked on these Arsenal Scores so that you can compare pitcher repertoires. You now have a go-to pitcher matrix if you’re dwelling on a cluster of pitchers.

Last week, Jeff Zimmerman furnished this glorious Hitter Analytics post, which provided us with a go-to hitter matrix when we’re dwelling on a cluster of hitters.

As a reminder, I also provided my approach to rankings: ((Projected 5×5 zsum value) + (Position Adjusted 5×5 zsum value*2) + (Relevant ADP*2))/3 = My Personal Rankings. In short, this approach weighs in actual value despite position adjustments, but emphasizes the importance of position adjustments and relevant average draft position. You can argue any of the three variables, but I’ll fart in your general direction.

My approach (with built-in, color-coded position tiers) is great for fast drafts (60 to 90s per pick). The Arsenal Scores and Hitter Analytics should be evaluated prior to fast drafts as well, but you will likely benefit more in slow drafts when you can spend time evaluating.

Let’s look at examples using each tool.

The Pitch Arsenal Score:

In short, we are scoring each pitch by their swinging-strike and grounder rates relative to all others with the same pitch. We sum up each pitch’s z-score to yield an Arsenal/Repertoire score.

Carlos Martinez winds up first overall due to a nasty fastball and slider. The problem was his overall command. Therefore to the right of each Arsenal Score, I provided their 2014 outcomes. Keep them in mind when rummaging through the list.

Secondly, a sundry of pitchers had elevated values based on elite Sinkers (Justin Masterson and Dan Straily as two extreme examples). They should be de-valued so in the third-to-last tab titled, RepScores, you can find the z-score for each individual pitch for all pitches (50+ pitch qualifier).

How to use:

1) Within Tier: If you are evaluating two pitchers within the same cluster/tier (say Alex Cobb and Adam Wainwright), evaluate their outcomes and arsenal score. Cobb finishes 60 spots ahead of Wainwright AND had better outcomes in 2014 (K-BB%; Ct% and GB%). Wainwright also has a injury-concern tag associated heading into 2015. This is more than enough for me to sway toward Cobb.

2) ADP: It’s your turn come round five (let’s say NFBC format). Jordan Zimmerman is available and you have him valued as fourth round value. I won’t complain if you love him, but check out his Arsenal score at #69 overall. Look who comes in at #70. Marcus Stroman is available 4 to 6 rounds later and can provide very similar value as noted here.

The Hitter Analytics Batted Ball Matrix:

Read Jeff’s full post on Pitchers’ approaches to attacking hitters, inside edge-related batted ball breakdown (well-hit linedrives versus medium and weak liners) as well as plate discipline (xK% and xBB%).

I manually added BABIP differential in the third column (xBABIPwHR-actualBABIPwHR). Highlighted in green are hitters with a +50 point BABIP differential.

The sixth column is the average of xBABIPwHR_plus + xwOBAcon_plus (relative batted ball value). Highlighted in green are hitters with whose batted ball value is 10%+ better than average.

How to use:

1) Verification: Corey Dickerson’s and J.D. Martinez’s value is questioned by some. Jeff validated their batted ball value. If we average their relative value (xBABIPwHR_plus and xwOBAcon_plus), they wind up at 9th and 16th overall respectively. As you can see, Martinez’s BABIP will inevitably regress, but should remain elevated based on this spray.

2) Player Comparison: David Wright’s cranky shoulder certainly effected his balls in play last year. He is way down the list at 287 overall. He should bounce back, but check out Josh Harrison (also validated from an xBABIP perspective). Harrison ranked 40th overall. Harrison might be the safer play unless you think Kang steals playing time at 3B. Still, Harrison can fill in at OF and 2B.

Contingencies:

As noted under the arsenal score, attend to the outcomes on the right which could limit the value of their pitch scores.

Similarly, the batted ball matrix doesn’t incorporate shift effect. J.D. Martinez was able to spray his power backing up excellent BABIP potential. On the other hand, Mike Moustakas got eaten up by shifts. His BABIP according to the matrix should be 50 points higher, but that excludes shift effect.

Keep this in mind for rookies too. BABIP tends to translate, but shifts kill BABIP. Kris Bryant was a monster. His strikeout rate should ground his value, but he does have BABIP potential based on his supposed approach using the entire field. Again using Mike Moustakas, he was a monster in the minors, but will continue to be eaten alive by shifts if he can’t adjust.