Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Kyle Drabek – In his first three starts, Drabek allowed just 4 ER in 18.2 IP for a 1.93 ERA. Since then, he’s allowed 29 ER in 44.2 IP for a 5.84 ERA. In that span, he’s allowed more walks (34) than strikeouts (26) and sports an ugly 1.858 WHIP. Walks are just killing him, as Drabek has a 6.39 BB/9, the worst mark among 115 qualified pitchers and over a full walk worse than the next worst pitcher (Jonathan Sanchez 5.19). Give him a spot on the bench until he gets his walk rate under control.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Three weeks ago, I had Jimenez as a sit and told you to wait until he showed something more. In his last outing he had a four-hit shutout with no walks and seven strikeouts – I think that counts. In his last four starts, covering 30 IP, he’s allowed just eight walks. In the four previous starts, he allowed 19 BB in 18.2 IP. Jimenez faces the Padres and Dodgers this week, the bottom two teams in the National League in runs per game. If you were holding him out, now is definitely the time to get him back in your lineup.

Felipe Paulino – Liberated from the Rockies bullpen, Paulino is back to starting with the Royals. In two starts with Kansas City, he’s pitched 9.1 scoreless innings with 0 BB and 7 Ks. Paulino is a strikeout pitcher who gets lots of groundballs. But the few fly balls he allowed seemingly all left the park in Colorado. He had a 7.36 ERA with the Rockies but a 3.41 xFIP. Available on the waiver wire in most leagues, Paulino is an excellent streaming option this week with his two starts and potentially much more than that.

Joel Pineiro – The switch to more two-seamers back in 2009 turned Pineiro into a pitcher who gets lots of ground balls but few strikeouts. So, he’s really a three-category pitcher at best. But when he’s right, he should deliver numbers in all three remaining categories. Pineiro has scuffled recently but he does have two home starts this week, including one against the Rays, who struggle versus lefties. Against LH starters this year, Tampa has a .652 OPS, the third-worst mark in the American League. Owners have not embraced Pineiro since he came off the DL but this looks like a week where he could contribute.

Josh Tomlin – He is tied for the American League lead with 7 wins and is fifth with a 0.949 WHIP, meaning Tomlin has made owners who picked him up off the waiver wire very happy. But in his past two starts, Tomlin has allowed 10 ER in 12 IP and allowed 3 HR. This week he squares off against the Yankees who lead the AL in both runs per game (5.24) and HR (83 in 54 games) by a wide margin. Tomlin’s start is in the Bronx, where the Yankees have hit 47 HR in 30 games. His other start is against the Twins, who have had trouble scoring runs overall this year but have tallied five or more runs in five of their past seven games. Give Tomlin the week off.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Lee, Price, Hanson, Lester, Marcum, Greinke, Oswalt, Scherzer, Gonzalez, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, C. Lewis, Morrow, Zimmermann, Lilly, Correia, Stauffer, Baker, Matusz, Myers, Porcello, Danks, Harrison, Garcia, Westbrook, Richard, Vazquez, Capuano, Leake, Garland, Lannan, Mortensen, Moscoso, Swarzak, Davis, O’Sullivan, Lopez, Reineke.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 8 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 22.24 ERA, 3.706 WHIP, 5.2 IP, 14 ER
Chacin – Advised to start. 11 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 2.143 WHIP, 2.1 IP, 2 ER
Hellickson – Advised to start. W, 10 Ks, 1.35 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER
Niese – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 1.59 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 11.3 IP, 2 ER

To close out our series of looks at the values of players in ottoneu Pick Six, we look today at pitchers.  As before, the numbers below are based on weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA (more weight to Oliver b/c it includes this season’s data).  The numbers are FP (FanGraphs Points per IP), though keep in mind that for starters this number is divided by four to keep starters from being the only thing that matters in pick six.

Starting Pitchers

Elite Five (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it)

Tim Lincecum, 5.33 FP/IP, $48
Josh Johnson, 5.21 FP/IP, $38
Felix Hernandez, 5.04 FP/IP, $49
Cliff Lee, 5.04 FP/IP, $43
Roy Halladay, 5.01 FP/IP, $52

Johnson’s injury risk has kept his value down in traditional ottoneu, but when he’s healthy (currently has shoulder ouchie), he’s the best value of this group.  But you can’t go wrong here: more than any other pitchers in baseball, these guys should give you lots of productive innings per start.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 16. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – The 35-year-old knuckleball pitcher has made 11 starts in the majors this year and has 9 Quality Starts. His only bad outing of the year (5 IP, 5 ER) came in Puerto Rico in a stadium which is not really up to major league standards. Dickey throws strikes, keeps the ball in the park and gets his share of ground balls. Even though he has two road starts this week, make sure he is in your lineup.

Tommy Hunter – Over the last two years (27 starts) Hunter is 15-6 with a 3.58 ERA, including a perfect 6-0 record this season with a 2.39 ERA. But Hunter’s xFIP is over two runs higher at 4.79, the exact same number it was in 2009. The good fortune comes from an 84.9 LOB%. But the real secret cannot be found in Hunter’s pitching record. Instead it comes from the Rangers’ offense, which gives him an average of 7.25 runs per game. It may be luck, but that is a very nice combination. Ride the streak and make sure Hunter is active for his two starts.

Jair Jurrjens – In three starts since being activated from the DL, Jurrjens is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA. The overall numbers are still ugly but Jurrjens is getting his walks under control. Before going on the DL, he had a 4.13 BB/9. Since coming back he has allowed 7 BB in 17.2 IP. Last year he had a 3.14 BB/9. Neither the Padres nor Marlins are teams that draw a bunch of walks, with the Padres being essentially average while the Marlins rank 14th in the NL in bases on balls. Additionally, both teams are below average in runs scored. Jurrjens should be active this week.

Joel Pineiro – Three weeks ago Pinero was mentioned as a start option and he came through with flying colors. But this week fantasy owners should go the other way with the Angels lefty. Pineiro has a huge home/road split in 2010, with a 7-2 mark, a 2.37 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP at home but a 6.39 ERA and a 1.520 WHIP. This week he has road starts in New York and Texas. Put Pineiro on the bench this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After 14 starts, Rodriguez had a 6.09 ERA and looked like a candidate to be dropped from the rotation. But in his last four outings, each a Quality Start, Rodriguez resembled the pitcher who appeared ready to become one of the top hurlers in the NL in the middle of 2009. Last year he had a 3.06 K/BB ratio. This year it is 1.93 in 101.1 IP. But over his last four starts, Rodriguez has 25 Ks and 6 BBs. This is the Rodriguez owners expected entering the year, so make sure to have him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Cueto, Jimenez, Hughes, Pelfrey, Silva, Matsuzaka, Leake, Baker, Bumgarner, Slowey, A. Sanchez, Cecil, Sheets, Kennedy, Davis, Moyer, Bonderman, Hudson, Fister, LeBlanc, Feldman, Bush, Francis, Kendrick, Tillman, Arrieta, McDonald, Galarraga, Robertson, Lincoln, Enright, Davies, Hawksworth, Karstens, Laffey, Litsch, Atilano, Martin, Pauley, Lerew.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. Since there was no two-start pitcher column for the All-Star break, there will be two week’s worth of results here.

Week 13
Braden – Advised to sit. Did not pitch – placed on DL
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 3.46 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Lilly – Advised to start W, 6.59 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2)
Morrow – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.583 WHIP
Pineiro – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.539 WHIP (2)

Week 14
Ely – Advised to start. 19.80 ERA, 4 Ks, 3.600 WHIP (2)
Floyd – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.23 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.955 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. 2.92 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.378 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 16 Ks, 0.923 WHIP
Wilson – Advised to start. W, 3.38 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.125 WHIP (2)

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Francisco Liriano – He has run hot and cold this year. In his last four games, Liriano is 0-3 with a 4.68 ERA, which cost him a shot at the All-Star game. But Liriano has also enjoyed two different hot streaks this year and overall he has a sparkling 2.88 xFIP and a nice 9.88 K/9. According to the price guide over at Last Player Picked, Liriano has been worth $11 this year, far off the $30+ pace of Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez. While he may not be quite in their class, do not be afraid to pay more than $11 in value to acquire Liriano for the rest of the season.

Ricky Nolasco – One of the most volatile players in fantasy baseball the past few years, Nolasco has really disappointed owners who valued him at 2009’s 3.28 xFIP. But given his streaky nature, now might be the ideal time to take a flyer on him. In his last 30 games, Nolasco has a 27.3 HR/FB rate, easily the highest in the majors. If he can get the HR under control, Nolasco could shave a run or more off his ERA going forward. He is not the strikeout pitcher he was last year, but a 7.64 K/9 is nothing to dismiss lightly.

Kurt Suzuki – The good news this year is that Suzuki is continuing to add to his HR power. In his first full season in the majors he had a 4.2 HR/FB rate. Last year it was 8.0 and so far this year it is 11.2 percent. But injuries and a .240 BABIP have held down his overall value this year. Suzuki appears over the injured ribs that sidelined him earlier in the year. Now he just needs to have a little better luck on balls in play.

SELL

David DeJesus – One of the players rumored to be on the trading block in MLB, DeJesus should be shopped in fantasy, too. He is a good fantasy player because he contributes in all five categories. The problem is that he does not really excel in any of them. He will reach double-digits in both HR and SB, but just barely in each of them. Right now he is very valuable thanks to his .329 AVG. But that was produced with a .366 BABIP, 44 points above his lifetime mark. ZiPS sees him hitting 30 points lower the rest of the way and even that lower mark is still 9 points above his lifetime mark.

Mat Latos – He has been everything his owners have expected and more so far this season. In his last 11 games, Latos is 8-1 with a 1.60 ERA and has 74 Ks in 73.1 IP. That stretch has been fueled by a .212 BABIP and he has allowed just 2 HR in that span. Obviously he will not be able to keep that pace going for the remainder of the season. The other red flag surrounding Latos is the unknown about how much he will pitch the rest of the way. He had injury problems in the minors and earlier in the year the Padres said they would be careful with his workload in the second half. That may go out the window with the team involved in a pennant race but it is still something that fantasy owners need to concerned with in August and September.

Joel Pineiro – In his last six games, Pineiro is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA. That hot streak has brought his ERA (3.96) in perfect alignment with both his FIP (3.95) and xFIP (3.93). So, while he was a bit unlucky early in the season, regression has hit for Pineiro. In his career, Pineiro has a 4.36 ERA, which is essentially what ZiPS projects for him the rest of the season. If you do hold him, you will want to play matchups the rest of the way. Pineiro has a 2.22 ERA at home and a 6.80 mark on the road.

HUNCH

Dexter Fowler – After not hitting the first two months of the season, Colorado sent Fowler to the minors. In Triple-A this year he put up a .340/.435/.566 line in 124 PA before being recalled by the Rockies. While Colorado already had a full outfield, which forced Seth Smith and Ryan Spillborghs to vie for time, Fowler was immediately inserted into the lineup as leadoff hitter. He has picked up right where he left off in the minors, with 10 hits in his first 24 ABs. I like Fowler to win a starting job the rest of the season and to exceed his ZiPS projection of 221 PA the rest of the way. I also think he will hit better than his .255 projection and exceed 9 SB.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 13. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Dallas Braden – Since pitching his perfect game, Braden is 0-5 with a 1.417 WHIP. In his last three starts, he has allowed 26 hits in 17.2 IP. Leave him on the bench for his two road starts.

Jason Hammel – Upon being activated from the disabled list in mid-May, Hammel is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA. While he has not pitched well on the road this season, he does get a start in Petco to go along with his home outing against the Giants. Ride the hot hand and make sure Hammel is in the lineup.

Ted Lilly – The Cubs lefty has hurled a Quality Start in eight of his last nine outings. He also has 30 Ks in his last 35 IP, so the Ks are coming back, too. With two home starts, including one against the Pirates, Lilly needs to be in your lineup this week.

Brandon Morrow – Wherever he pitches, Morrow piles up the strikeouts, with a 9.86 K/9. But he has not been a road warrior in 2010. Morrow is 0-4 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.848 WHIP away from Toronto. It’s tough to pass up the possibility of 15+ Ks, but that ERA and WHIP are potential staff killers. Deactivate Morrow this week if you can.

Joel Pineiro – In his last four games, Pineiro is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He also is doing nice in strikeouts, with 22 Ks in 30.1 IP over that span. Activate him for his two home starts this week

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Jimenez, Wainwright, Carpenter, Lee, Cain, Gallardo, Strasburg, Liriano, Hughes, Haren, Hudson, Romero, Zito, Shields, Cueto, Leake, Nolasco, Buehrle, Carmona, Myers, Dickey, Billingsley, Bonderman, Takahashi, Matusz, Blanton, LeBlanc, Wells, Feldman, Correia, Kendrick, Blackburn, Parra, Westbrook, Maholm, LeRew, Norris, Karstens, Stammen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 11 pitchers and how they fared.
Kuroda – Advised to sit. W, 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2 starts)
Marcum – Advised to sit. W, 2.25 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Masterson – Advised to start. 5.54 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.385 WHIP (2)
J. Sanchez – Advised to start. W, 3.48 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.645 WHIP (2)
Wilson – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)

Here is the latest update to Week Six 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – John Lackey
FLA – Ricky Nolasco
TEX – Colby Lewis
STL – Brad Penny
TOR – Brandon Morrow
ANA – Joel Pineiro
HOU – Brett Myers
DET – Rick Porcello
NYM – Jonathon Niese
KCR – Brian Bannister
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

After getting roughed up by the Rays, Lackey has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts, picking up two wins in the process. His GB/FB ratio is essentially where it’s been the past few years, but Lackey is striking out fewer batters and issuing more walks. His 1.50 K/BB ratio is the worst of his career. Lackey is surviving thanks to a lower LD% and a lower HR/FB rate. He has posted a lower than average HR/FB rate in six of his eight seasons in the majors and so far this year it checks in at 7.1 percent.

Six of the seven homers allowed by Nolasco this year have come in his home park, where he has pitched 16 innings. The rest of the Marlins’ staff has allowed 7 HR in 135 IP at Sun Life Stadium. The average velocity on Nolasco’s fastball is down 1.1 mph and his K/9 has fallen from 9.49 to 7.26. A 1.82 BB/9 has kept his FIP and xFIP right around his ERA of 4.08, which checks in slightly better than the NL average of a 4.20 ERA.

A wicked slider which he throws over 30 percent of the time has helped make Lewis’ second stint in the majors go significantly better than his first. That has led to a 31.4 O-Swing% and a 10.24 K/9 rate. Somewhere on the West Coast, Carson Cistulli cracks a smile over this.

Last year Penny had a 1.13 GB/FB rate but it is back up to 1.49 this year. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan gets all of the credit for the turnaround yet Penny had a 1.63 GB/FB rate last year with the Giants. Penny is posting the lowest walk rate of his career (1.77 BB/9) and perhaps Duncan deserves credit for that. Still, Penny is pitching better than his peripherals, with an xFIP nearly two runs higher than his ERA.

In his last four outings, Morrow is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and has 34 Ks in 24.1 IP. The overall numbers still look bad because of the brutal first two starts but you should definitely check the waiver wire to see if he is still available in your league.

Pineiro still has tremendous GB and BB rates, so why is his ERA sitting at 5.30 or nearly two runs a game higher than last season? Check out that 15.6 HR/FB rate, over twice as high as last year’s mark. Pineiro has also been unlucky with a .351 BABIP. The bottom line is that his xFIP of 3.89 is just slightly higher than last year’s 3.68.

This week Myers has two road starts. He has a 2.57 ERA on the road this year and an 0-2 record.

The K/9 for Porcello has risen from 4.69 to 5.70 this season. Unfortunately his BABIP has risen from .281 to .396 and combine that with a 58.4 LOB% and you get a 7.50 ERA. Porcello’s FIP and xFIP are right in line with last year, when he posed a 3.96 ERA and 14 Wins.

Omar Minaya eschewed adding a free agent pitcher in the offseason, saying he liked his internal candidates as much as what was available after Lackey signed. Niese is trying his best to make Minaya look good and has a 3.60 ERA after six starts despite a .382 BABIP.

This season Bannister has made three starts during the day and three at night. He is 1-0 with a 2.41 ERA in the sunshine and 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA under the lights. In his career, Bannister is 18-8 with a 4.06 ERA in day games and 13-32 with a 5.26 ERA at night.

Monasterios was originally signed by the Yankees out of Venezuela. He was shipped to Philadelphia in the Bobby Abreu deal and was underwhelming in three-plus years in the Phillies’ farm system. This year he was selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 draft and then sold to the Dodgers. He has been effective in relief for Los Angeles and gets bumped into the rotation as Los Angeles looks everywhere for help for its rotation. However, his xFIP is two full runs higher than his ERA.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Here is the latest update to Week 21 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
STL – Pineiro
CHC – Zambrano

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CHC – Harden

Rodriguez has won seven of his last eight decisions. In that span he has a 2.38 ERA with 23 BB and 63 SO in 72 IP. For the season, Rodriguez’ FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA due to an 81 percent strand rate. One thing to keep in mind about Rodriguez is that he pitches much better at home despite Minute Maid Park being a hitter-friendly place. Rodriguez is 7-2 with a 1.73 ERA at home compared to a 5-5, 4.21 road mark. Both of the starts for Rodriguez are on the road.

Pineiro and his major league leading 61.1 percent ground ball rate have two home starts this week. After opening the season 6-9, Pineiro is 6-0 over his last nine starts and he pitched well enough to win two other times in that span. Even with his puny SO rate, Pineiro is a must-start now in all leagues, and the two starts this week is a nice bonus.

Zambrano has been on the disabled list with an injured back but is slated to be activated Tuesday following a minor league rehab start where he pitched five scoreless innings and notched five strikeouts. Before landing on the DL, Zambrano was 3-0 in his last five starts with a 2.93 ERA and 26 SO in 27.2 IP. Zambrano has home starts this week against the Nationals and Mets, the two bottom teams in the National League East.

Here is the latest update to Week 18 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
MIL – Gallardo
DET – Washburn
NYY – Pettitte
STL – Pineiro
BAL – Matusz
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Chamberlain
BOS – Penny
TEX – Feldman
BAL – Bergesen
DET – French
CLE – Laffey

Lester had a string of six straight Quality Starts snapped in his last outing July 30th versus the A’s, when he gave up 4 ER in 5.2 IP in a no-decision. He has two road starts this week with games at Tampa and at New York. So far in 2009 Lester’s ERA is 4.52 in road games, compared to 3.33 in Fenway Park.

Gallardo has reeled off back-to-back wins after being saddled with a loss in three straight appearances. In his last outing, Gallardo fanned 11 batters and allowed just one walk in seven innings versus the Nationals. The solo walk was an encouraging sign for Gallardo, who has allowed a career-high 4.27 BB/9 this season.

Washburn makes his first starts for his new team this week and fantasy owners are eager to find out if his good fortune this season follows him to Detroit. Washburn has a .249 BABIP and a 79.5 percent strand rate this season. His FIP checks in at 3.76, more than a run higher than his 2.64 ERA. Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in Comerica Park, where he will make both starts this week.

Pettitte seeks to snap a three-game losing streak this week. The Yankees lefthander has not won since July 1st, a stretch that covers five games. In that span he has a 5.34 ERA. After starting the season with a 5-1 record, Pettitte has a 3-5 mark with a 4.92 ERA over his past 11 starts and has allowed eight HRs in 64 IP.

Pineiro picked up four losses in June despite a 2.65 ERA for the month. So in July he posted a 1.22 ERA and went 3-0 in five starts. Pineiro is continuing to serve up grounders, as 61 percent of his batted balls are beat into the ground. His GB/FB ratio of 2.70 easily leads the majors and he has the lowest HR/FB mark (3.0%) of all qualified pitchers.

Matusz is scheduled to make his major league debut this week subbing for the injured Bergesen. The 6’5 LHP was a combined 11-2 this season between two levels, including 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA at Double-A Bowie. The fourth overall pick in the 2008 Draft, Matusz has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and he fanned 120 batters in 112 innings in the minors.

Huff has a 6.39 ERA but has received an average run support of 6.05 runs per game, which explains how he sits at 5-5 after 14 games. But with a 1.58 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of 4.62 Huff is not a good fantasy pitcher regardless of how much run support he receives.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Lance Berkman and trade Adrian Gonzalez last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Adam LaRoche – In 2008 he had a .764 OPS in the first half of the year and a .975 OPS after the break. In 2007 the numbers were .763 and .854. In his MLB career, LaRoche has a .787 OPS pre-AS break and a .907 OPS after the break. He has had a very solid first half of the season and if he maintains his career averages after the break, LaRoche could challenge for his best season yet, when he batted .285-32-90.

Luke Hochevar – His strikeout rate is poor (3.57) and his BABIP sits at .231 for the season. But Hochevar has hurled a Quality Start in four of his last five outings, pitching into the seventh inning in all four of those games, including one route-going performance. Hochevar has decent control and does not allow many fly balls. And he should improve upon his 60 percent strand rate going forward.

Willie Harris – Since taking over the CF job 10 days ago, Harris has 3 HR and 3 SB to go along with a .308 AVG. Harris has never been a star, but he did hit 13 HR a season ago. If you need a stopgap option in the OF, he is a waiver wire pickup to consider, with the ability to help in multiple categories. Also, he has played 10 games this year at 2B, which may make him eligible there in some formats.

Chad Gaudin – Back as a SP after spending most of last season in relief, Gaudin is piling up the strikeouts and maintaining a serviceable WHIP (1.39) despite a dismal 4.58 BB/9 mark. His FIP is over a full run beneath his ERA while his strand rate has room for improvement from its current 65.2 percent mark. Early in the month, Gaudin was forced into bullpen duty in an 18-inning game. He got rocked in his next start but has followed up with three Quality Starts. In that span, Gaudin has a 28/5 SO/BB ratio in 21 innings.

Garrett Atkins – Through his first 53 games, Atkins had a .189 AVG and was in the discussion for the worst player in fantasy baseball. Since then, he’s hit .519 in his last 10 games, although none of his other fantasy numbers have been noteworthy. But one category production is better than none and Atkins has a .240 BABIP despite a career .314 mark in the category. RoS ZiPS shows him with a .288-12-52-44-1 line the remainder of the season.

Trade

Ichiro Suzuki – There may be no more polarizing figure in fantasy baseball than Ichiro. Proponents point to his ultra-high AVG and SB and strong R numbers. So far, the proponents have been right. Ichiro’s .372 AVG has him as the 14th-best fantasy player, according to CBS Sports. He has a .391 BABIP. Ichiro had a .390 mark in 2007 and hit .401 in the category in 2004. Still, his career mark is .358 so some regression should not be a surprise. Also, Ichiro already has as many HR as he hit in the past two seasons and his HR/FB rate is double what it was a season ago.

Derek Lowe – His last three outings have really dragged down his overall numbers. Some may consider Lowe a buy-low option as a solid #2/3 fantasy pitcher simply going through a rough patch. But he is also a 36-year old with declining K/9 and BB/9 numbers. Lowe is getting fewer swings outside the zone and the famed sinkerballer has a career-worst GB%. The numbers could be even worse if Lowe did not have a career-best 4.4 percent HR/FB rate, roughly one-third of his career mark in the category. His velocity is down and Pitch Type Values shows his slider, which was such an effective pitch for Lowe last year, has been a below-average pitch this season.

Mark Reynolds – Fantasy players mostly avoided Reynolds on Draft Day this season, making him a late-round pick or waiver-wire fare. The conventional wisdom was that his power was not worth the low average. Whoops. Reynolds has raised his AVG 29 points, shown even more power than a season ago and added SB to his game. But it is time to sell high. Reynolds is unlikely to maintain his 28-SB or 45-HR pace. He has already surpassed his professional career high in steals and the 28 percent HR/FB rate is 10 points above last year’s mark.

Joel Pineiro – He has gained a lot of publicity lately for being the latest Tony LaRussa/Dave Duncan reclamation project. But Pineiro features a career-low 3.81 K/9 ratio and he is unlikely to maintain a 0.27 HR/9 rate.

Scott Rolen – His .332 AVG has been almost as big of a surprise as Rolen playing in 66 games so far, even with his bad back. He has a 17-game hitting streak with 10 multi-hit games. But he is a one-category performer, with just 5 HR and 29 RBI to go along with his gaudy AVG. And not surprisingly, Rolen has a .360 BABIP, which would be his personal best and is 46 points above his career mark.