Archive for Joel Pineiro

Last evening, Cardinals righty Joel Pineiro put on a pitching clinic that would make Roy Halladay look downright inefficient by comparison. Tossing exactly 100 pitches in a complete game shutout against the Mets, Pineiro pounded the zone for 62 strikes while generating an absurd 22 groundball outs. We’re not yet half way through the 2009 season, yet the former Mariner and Red Sock has already eclipsed his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total for the last three years combined. From 2006-2008, Pineiro accumulated a total of 2.1 WAR. In ’09, the 30 year-old is already up to 2.5 WAR. That figure places him 13th among all starters.

How has Pineiro gone from roster flotsam to an important member of the Cardinals rotation? By calling upon a bowling ball-like sinker that has opposing batters chopping the ball into the dirt an astonishing 61.3% of the time (Pineiro’s career GB rate is 47.5%). That’s the highest rate of worm killers in the major leagues.

Pineiro’s fastball had long been a below-average offering. According to Fan Graphs’ run value pitch data, Pineiro’s heater has been worth -0.64 runs/100 pitches since 2002. And if anything, that’s understating the pitch’s lack of effectiveness: his fastball was worth -1.48 runs/100 in 2006, -1.19 in 2007 and -1.57 in 2008. In 2009, Pineiro’s fastball has a run value of +0.88 per 100 tosses, a dramatic reversal.

Looking at Pineiro’s Pitch F/X data, the change in his fastball has been dramatic. Take a gander at the horizontal and vertical movement of the pitch over the past three seasons (X is horizontal movement- a negative number indicates movement in on the hands of a right-handed batter. Z is vertical movement. The lower the Z figure, the more downward break on the pitch compared to a ball thrown without spin):

2007: -4.3 X, 9.6 Z
2008: -5.5 X, 7.2 Z
2009: -7.0 Z, 5.3 Z

Pineiro sacrificed fastball speed (from 91 to 88 MPH) for movement, gaining nearly three inches of tailing action in on righties with over 4 more inches of sink. Pineiro has also whipped out an even livelier sinker at times. Pitch F/X shows him throwing a two-seamer 18% of the time, with 9.3 inches of break in on right-handed batters and just 3.7 inches of vertical movement.

The Puerto Rican native is missing next to no lumber (3.88 K/9, the fourth-lowest rate among qualified starters), but he has compensated with nearly spotless control on top of the grounders. Pineiro has issued just 1.17 walks per nine innings, the third-lowest figure among starters. He’s getting ahead 0-and-1 or inducing contact from the get-go: Pineiro’s 66.1 First-Pitch Strike% is well above the 58% MLB average and places fifth among starters.

Joel Pineiro is certainly not a sexy name among fantasy players, given the paucity of strikeouts that he generates. But that doesn’t mean he should be ignored, either. He’s a fundamentally different pitcher than the guy who took the hill in Seattle and Boston, unleashing a nasty sinker, generating weak contact and walking next to no one. Whether he can continue to get this many grounders while issuing so few walks remains to be seen, but Pineiro’s sinker gives him the chance to enjoy a nice second act to his career.

(Quick scheduling note: the “Closer Report”, which has been appearing on Wednesdays, will now be posted on Fridays. Sorry for any inconvenience.)

Here is the latest update to Week 12 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ATL – Hanson
BOS – Penny
NYM – Hernandez
STL – Pineiro
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CLE – Pavano

Hanson is coming off a six scoreless inning performance. Considering how much trouble he has had with both walks (5.09 BB/9) and homers (1.53 HR/9) it is surprising how he sits with a 2-0 record. His FIP is 5.78 after three starts but Hanson has had basically one bad inning so far, back in his first start when he gave up two homers and four runs to the Brewers.

Penny figured to be the odd man out when John Smoltz returned from the disabled list but the combination of his continued solid pitching, along with Daisuke Matsuzaka’s poor performance has given Penny another life. In his last six outings, Penny is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 34.2 innings.

Hernandez may be the Mets’ best pitcher right now. And that is equal parts reflective of how poor the team’s other pitchers have been lately along with how well Hernandez has pitched. In 13 starts this year, he has had just three bad outings and he has posted seven Quality Starts this year. Hernandez’ main problem has been the gopher ball. He has allowed 11 homers in 79.2 innings and seven of those came in the three bad starts.

Pineiro has a .321 BABIP to go along with a 62.7 percent strand rate. His success this year has come thanks to a microscopic walk rate (1.18 BB/9) and an even smaller home run rate (0.22 HR/9). Still he leads the National League with eight losses and the Cardinals have scored three runs or less for him in nine of his 13 starts. He gets an average of 3.71 runs per game but it is only that high thanks to a 12-run outburst in one game.

Huff has an 11-5 record the past two seasons in Triple-A but has found major league hitters harder to handle. He has advanced to the sixth inning just one time in seven outings. His 7.09 ERA comes along with a 1.64 WHIP and a 1.91 HR/9 ratio.